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Monetary policy and aggregate volatility

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  • Adam, Klaus

Abstract

Discretionary conduct of monetary stabilization policy can increase real and nominal aggregate volatility by arbitrary amounts when firms pay limited attention to aggregate shocks. A conservative central banker with stronger preference for price stability eliminates the commitment problem, thereby reduces output and price volatility and gives rise to a policy-induced ‘Great Moderation’. Increased focus on price stability facilitates firms’ information processing and aligns their expectations better with policy decisions. This ‘coordination effect’ reduces aggregate real and nominal volatility. Consistent with empirical evidence, the moderation manifests itself through reduced residual variance in vector autoregressions (VARs) involving macroeconomic variables.

Suggested Citation

  • Adam, Klaus, 2009. "Monetary policy and aggregate volatility," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(S), pages 1-18.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:moneco:v:56:y:2009:i:s:p:s1-s18
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2009.06.008
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Gaballo, Gaetano, 2013. "Good luck or good policy? An expectational theory of macro volatility switches," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(12), pages 2755-2770.
    2. repec:fce:doctra:13-04 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Paul Hubert, 2015. "ECB Projections as a Tool for Understanding Policy Decisions," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 34(7), pages 574-587, November.
    4. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/79hle3i1b69dqrocqsjarh6lb1 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Paul Hubert, 2015. "ECB Projections as a Tool for Understanding Policy Decisions," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 34(7), pages 574-587, November.
    6. Leonardo Melosi, 2017. "Signalling Effects of Monetary Policy," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 84(2), pages 853-884.
    7. Paul Hubert & Becky Maule, 2016. "Policy and Macro Signals as Inputs to Inflation Expectation Formation," SciencePo Working papers Main hal-03459462, HAL.
    8. Pasten, Ernesto & Schoenle, Raphael, 2016. "Rational inattention, multi-product firms and the neutrality of money," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 1-16.
    9. Lena Draeger, 2011. "Endogenous persistence with recursive inattentiveness," KOF Working papers 11-285, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich.
    10. McNown, Robert & Seip, Knut Lehre, 2011. "Periods and structural breaks in US economic history 1959-2007," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 169-182, March.
    11. Macaulay, Alistair, 2021. "The attention trap: Rational inattention, inequality, and fiscal policy," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 135(C).
    12. Mankiw, N. Gregory & Reis, Ricardo, 2010. "Imperfect Information and Aggregate Supply," Scholarly Articles 33907956, Harvard University Department of Economics.
    13. Fang Zhang, 2017. "Rational Inattention in Uncertain Business Cycles," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 49(1), pages 215-253, February.
    14. Zhang, Fang, 2014. "Monetary policy for rationally inattentive economies with staggered price setting," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 184-208.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Great moderation; Optimal monetary policy; Rational inattention;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • D82 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Asymmetric and Private Information; Mechanism Design

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