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Rational Inattention in Uncertain Business Cycles

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  • FANG ZHANG

Abstract

The paper proposes endogenous information choice as a channel through which uncertainty affects price dynamics. I consider a rational inattention model with volatility uncertainty and endogenous information processing capability. According to the model, firms' learning and optimal attention exhibits inertia and asymmetry in response to volatility changes. Firms choose to process more information when uncertainty rises, especially about aggregate conditions, and their pricing behavior changes accordingly. Using a Markov‐switching factor‐augmented vector autoregression (MS‐FAVAR), the paper also documents a significant positive correlation between volatility and firms' responsiveness to macro‐ and microlevel shocks, consistent with model predictions.

Suggested Citation

  • Fang Zhang, 2017. "Rational Inattention in Uncertain Business Cycles," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 49(1), pages 215-253, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:jmoncb:v:49:y:2017:i:1:p:215-253
    DOI: 10.1111/jmcb.12373
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Kwangyong Park, 2019. "Uncertainty, Attention Allocation and Monetary Policy Asymmetry," Working Papers 2019-5, Economic Research Institute, Bank of Korea.
    2. Park, Kwangyong, 2023. "Do more frequent price adjustments guarantee less effective monetary stimulus when uncertainty rises?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    3. Vania Esady, 2022. "Real and nominal effects of monetary shocks under time-varying disagreement," Bank of England working papers 1007, Bank of England.
    4. Aslanidis, Nektarios & Koursaros, Demetris & Otto, Glenn, 2024. "Asymmetry in inflation persistence under inflation targeting," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 98(C).
    5. Marcus Giamattei, 2022. "Can Cold Turkey Reduce Inflation Inertia? Evidence on Disinflation and Level‐k Thinking from a Laboratory Experiment," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 54(8), pages 2477-2517, December.
    6. Zidong An & Salem Abo‐Zaid & Xuguang Simon Sheng, 2023. "Inattention and the impact of monetary policy," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 38(4), pages 623-643, June.
    7. Vania Esady, 2019. "Real and Nominal Effects of Monetary Shocks under Time-Varying Disagreement," CESifo Working Paper Series 7956, CESifo.
    8. Bouri, Elie & Gradojevic, Nikola & Nekhili, Ramzi, 2024. "Fear, extreme fear and U.S. stock market returns," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 656(C).
    9. J. Daniel Aromí & Martín Llada, 2024. "Are professional forecasters inattentive to public discussions? The case of inflation in Argentina," Working Papers 300, Red Nacional de Investigadores en Economía (RedNIE).

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