IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/nzb/nzbdps/2008-02.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Explaining Movements in the NZ Dollar - Central Bank Communication and the Surprise Element in Monetary Policy?

Author

Listed:

Abstract

We conduct a high frequency event analysis to estimate the effects of monetary policy surprises, data surprises, and central bank verbal statements on the New Zealand-US dollar and the New Zealand-Australian dollar exchange rates. We find data surprises and monetary policy surprises have significant and large effects on exchange rate movements. More importantly, RBNZ interest rate decisions have a largely permanent impact on the exchange rate. Significantly, the impact of the published interest rate track seems to explain some 10 per cent additional variation in the exchange rate.

Suggested Citation

  • Özer Karagedikli & Pierre L. Siklos, 2008. "Explaining Movements in the NZ Dollar - Central Bank Communication and the Surprise Element in Monetary Policy?," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2008/02, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
  • Handle: RePEc:nzb:nzbdps:2008/02
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.rbnz.govt.nz/-/media/ReserveBank/Files/Publications/Discussion%20papers/2008/dp08-02.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. repec:rim:rimwps:35-07 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Roberto Rigobon & Brian Sack, 2003. "Measuring The Reaction of Monetary Policy to the Stock Market," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 118(2), pages 639-669.
    3. Frederic S Mishkin, 2004. "Can Central Bank Transparency Go Too Far?," RBA Annual Conference Volume,in: Christopher Kent & Simon Guttmann (ed.), The Future of Inflation Targeting Reserve Bank of Australia.
    4. Sharon McCaw & Satish Ranchhod, 2002. "The Reserve Bank's forecasting performance," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Bulletin, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, vol. 65, December.
    5. Ehrmann, Michael & Fratzscher, Marcel, 2003. "Monetary Policy Announcements and Money Markets: A Transatlantic Perspective," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 6(3), pages 309-328, Winter.
    6. Claus Brand & Daniel Buncic & Jarkko Turunen, 2010. "The Impact of ECB Monetary Policy Decisions and Communication on the Yield Curve," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 8(6), pages 1266-1298, December.
    7. Rigobon, Roberto & Sack, Brian, 2004. "The impact of monetary policy on asset prices," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(8), pages 1553-1575, November.
    8. Ramchander, Sanjay & Simpson, Marc W. & Chaudhry, Mukesh K., 2005. "The influence of macroeconomic news on term and quality spreads," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 45(1), pages 84-102, February.
    9. Torben G. Andersen & Tim Bollerslev & Francis X. Diebold & Clara Vega, 2003. "Real-Time Price Discovery in Stock, Bond and Foreign Exchange Markets," PIER Working Paper Archive 04-028, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania, revised 28 Jun 2004.
    10. Piazzesi, Monika & Swanson, Eric T., 2008. "Futures prices as risk-adjusted forecasts of monetary policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(4), pages 677-691, May.
    11. Torben G. Andersen & Tim Bollerslev & Francis X. Diebold & Heiko Ebens, 2000. "The Distribution of Stock Return Volatility," NBER Working Papers 7933, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Ehrmann, Michael & Fratzscher, Marcel, 2004. "Taking stock: monetary policy transmission to equity markets," Working Paper Series 354, European Central Bank.
    13. Andersson, Magnus, 2007. "Using intraday data to gauge financial market responses to Fed and ECB monetary policy decisions," Working Paper Series 726, European Central Bank.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Gunda-Alexandra Detmers & Dieter Nautz, 2012. "The Information Content of Central Bank Interest Rate Projections: Evidence from New Zealand," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 88(282), pages 323-329, September.
    2. Sylvester Eijffinger & Ronald Mahieu & Louis Raes, 2017. "Can the Fed Talk the Hind Legs Off the Stock Market?," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 13(1), pages 53-94, February.
    3. Özer Karagedikli & Rishab Sethi & Christie Smith & Aaron Drew, 2008. "Changes in the transmission mechanism of monetary policy in New Zealand," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2008/03, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
    4. Eijffinger, S.C.W. & Mahieu, R.J. & Raes, L.B.D., 2012. "Can the Fed talk the Hind Legs off the Stock Market? (replaces CentER DP 2011-072)," Discussion Paper 2012-012, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
    5. Coleman, Andrew & Karagedikli, Özer, 2012. "The relative size of exchange rate and interest rate responses to news: An empirical investigation," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 1-19.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nzb:nzbdps:2008/02. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Reserve Bank of New Zealand Knowledge Centre). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/rbngvnz.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.