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Explaining Movements in the NZ Dollar - Central Bank Communication and the Surprise Element in Monetary Policy?

We conduct a high frequency event analysis to estimate the effects of monetary policy surprises, data surprises, and central bank verbal statements on the New Zealand-US dollar and the New Zealand-Australian dollar exchange rates. We find data surprises and monetary policy surprises have significant and large effects on exchange rate movements. More importantly, RBNZ interest rate decisions have a largely permanent impact on the exchange rate. Significantly, the impact of the published interest rate track seems to explain some 10 per cent additional variation in the exchange rate.

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Paper provided by Reserve Bank of New Zealand in its series Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series with number DP2008/02.

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Length: 42 p.
Date of creation: Feb 2008
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:nzb:nzbdps:2008/02
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  1. Piazzesi, Monika & Swanson, Eric T., 2008. "Futures prices as risk-adjusted forecasts of monetary policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(4), pages 677-691, May.
  2. Ehrmann, Michael & Fratzscher, Marcel, 2003. "Monetary Policy Announcements and Money Markets: A Transatlantic Perspective," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 6(3), pages 309-28, Winter.
  3. Ramchander, Sanjay & Simpson, Marc W. & Chaudhry, Mukesh K., 2005. "The influence of macroeconomic news on term and quality spreads," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 45(1), pages 84-102, February.
  4. Frederic S. Mishkin, 2004. "Can Central Bank Transparency Go Too Far?," NBER Working Papers 10829, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Sharon McCaw & Satish Ranchhod, 2002. "The Reserve Bank's forecasting performance," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Bulletin, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, vol. 65, December.
  6. Pierre L. Siklos & Martin T. Bohl, 2007. "Policy Words and Policy Deeds: The ECB and the Euro," Working Paper Series 35-07, The Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis, revised Jul 2007.
  7. Roberto Rigobon & Brian Sack, 2001. "Measuring the reaction of monetary policy to the stock market," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2001-14, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  8. Claus Brand & Daniel Buncic & Jarkko Turunen, 2010. "The Impact of ECB Monetary Policy Decisions and Communication on the Yield Curve," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 8(6), pages 1266-1298, December.
  9. Torben G. Andersen & Tim Bollerslev & Francis X. Diebold & Heiko Ebens, 2000. "The Distribution of Stock Return Volatility," NBER Working Papers 7933, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. Andersen, Torben G. & Bollerslev, Tim & Diebold, Francis X. & Vega, Clara, 2004. "Real-time price discovery in stock, bond and foreign exchange markets," CFS Working Paper Series 2004/19, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
  11. Rigobon, Roberto & Sack, Brian, 2004. "The impact of monetary policy on asset prices," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(8), pages 1553-1575, November.
  12. Ehrmann, Michael & Fratzscher, Marcel, 2004. "Taking stock: monetary policy transmission to equity markets," Working Paper Series 0354, European Central Bank.
  13. Andersson, Magnus, 2007. "Using intraday data to gauge financial market responses to Fed and ECB monetary policy decisions," Working Paper Series 0726, European Central Bank.
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