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Using intraday data to gauge financial market responses to Fed and ECB monetary policy decisions

Author

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  • Andersson, Magnus

Abstract

This paper examines bond and stock market volatility reactions in the euro area and the US following their respective economies' monetary policy decisions, over a uniform sample period (April 1999 to May 2006). For this purpose, intraday data on the US and euro area bond and stock markets are used. A strong upsurge in intraday volatility at the time of the release of the monetary policy decisions by the two central banks is found, which is more pronounced for the US financial markets following Fed monetary policy decisions. Part of the increase in intraday volatility in the two economies surrounding monetary policy decisions can be explained by both news of the level of monetary policy and revisions in the expected future monetary policy path. The observed strong discrepancy between asset price reactions in the US and in the euro area following monetary policy decisions still remains a puzzle, although some tentative explanations are provided in the paper. JEL Classification: E52, E58, G14

Suggested Citation

  • Andersson, Magnus, 2007. "Using intraday data to gauge financial market responses to Fed and ECB monetary policy decisions," Working Paper Series 726, European Central Bank.
  • Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:2007726
    Note: 568808
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Jakob de Haan & David-Jan Jansen, 2009. "The communication policy of the European Central Bank: An overview of the first decade," DNB Working Papers 212, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
    2. Jinjarak, Yothin, 2014. "Equity prices and financial globalization," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 49-57.
    3. Özer Karagedikli & Pierre L. Siklos, 2008. "Explaining Movements in the NZ Dollar - Central Bank Communication and the Surprise Element in Monetary Policy?," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2008/02, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
    4. Michael Ehrmann & Marcel Fratzscher, 2009. "Explaining Monetary Policy in Press Conferences," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 5(2), pages 42-84, June.
    5. Hussain, Syed Mujahid, 2010. "Simultaneous monetary policy announcements and international stock markets response: an intraday analysis," Research Discussion Papers 8/2010, Bank of Finland.
    6. Dungey, Mardi & McKenzie, Michael & Smith, L. Vanessa, 2009. "Empirical evidence on jumps in the term structure of the US Treasury Market," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 430-445, June.
    7. Vergote, Olivier & Puigvert Gutiérrez, Josep Maria, 2012. "Interest rate expectations and uncertainty during ECB Governing Council days: Evidence from intraday implied densities of 3-month EURIBOR," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(10), pages 2804-2823.
    8. Carlo Rosa & Giovanni Verga, 2008. "The Impact of Central Bank Announcements on Asset Prices in Real Time," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 4(2), pages 175-217, June.
    9. Rosa, Carlo, 2008. "Talking less and moving the market more: is this the recipe for monetary policy effectiveness?: evidence from the ECB and the Fed," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 19629, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    10. Donato Masciandaro & Davide Romelli & Gaia Rubera, 2020. "Tweeting on Monetary Policy and Market Sentiments: The Central Bank Surprise Index," BAFFI CAREFIN Working Papers 20134, BAFFI CAREFIN, Centre for Applied Research on International Markets Banking Finance and Regulation, Universita' Bocconi, Milano, Italy.
    11. Jakob Haan, 2008. "The effect of ECB communication on interest rates: An assessment," The Review of International Organizations, Springer, vol. 3(4), pages 375-398, December.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    intraday data; monetary policy;

    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading

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