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Tweeting on Monetary Policy and Market Sentiments: The Central Bank Surprise Index

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  • Donato Masciandaro
  • Davide Romelli
  • Gaia Rubera

Abstract

This paper explores the relationship between central bank communication and market sentiment, and proposes a new measure. Market sentiment is proxied using a Twitter-based metric: the Central Bank Surprise Index. The empirical study covers three cases: the Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank and the Bank of England.

Suggested Citation

  • Donato Masciandaro & Davide Romelli & Gaia Rubera, 2020. "Tweeting on Monetary Policy and Market Sentiments: The Central Bank Surprise Index," BAFFI CAREFIN Working Papers 20134, BAFFI CAREFIN, Centre for Applied Research on International Markets Banking Finance and Regulation, Universita' Bocconi, Milano, Italy.
    • Handle: RePEc:baf:cbafwp:cbafwp20134
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    Cited by:

    1. Ehrmann, Michael & Wabitsch, Alena, 2022. "Central bank communication with non-experts – A road to nowhere?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 127(C), pages 69-85.
    2. Johannes Zahner, 2020. "Above, but close to two percent. Evidence on the ECB’s inflation target using text mining," MAGKS Papers on Economics 202046, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
    3. Yuriy Gorodnichenko & Tho Pham & Oleksandr Talavera, 2021. "Central Bank Communication on Social Media: What, To Whom, and How?," Discussion Papers 21-05, Department of Economics, University of Birmingham.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    monetary policy; central bank communication; financial market; social media; Twitter; Federal Reserve System; European Central Bank; Bank of England; Bank of Japan;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • G41 - Financial Economics - - Behavioral Finance - - - Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on Decision Making in Financial Markets

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