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Eliciting GDP Forecasts from the FOMC’s Minutes Around the Financial Crisis

Listed author(s):
  • Neil R. Ericsson

    ()

    (Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System)

Stekler and Symington (2016) construct indexes that quantify the Federal Open Market Committee’s views about the U.S. economy, as expressed in the minutes of the FOMC’s meetings. These indexes provide insights on the FOMC’s deliberations, especially at the onset of the Great Recession. The current paper complements Stekler and Symington’s analysis by showing that their indexes reveal relatively minor bias in the FOMC’s views when the indexes are reinterpreted as forecasts. Additionally, these indexes provide a proximate mechanism for inferring the Fed staff’s Greenbook forecasts of the U.S. real GDP growth rate, years before the Greenbook’s public release.

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File URL: https://www2.gwu.edu/~forcpgm/2015-003.pdf
File Function: First version, 2015
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Paper provided by The George Washington University, Department of Economics, Research Program on Forecasting in its series Working Papers with number 2015-003.

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Length: 27 pages
Date of creation: Nov 2015
Handle: RePEc:gwc:wpaper:2015-003
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