IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/boj/bojwps/wp14e06.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Confidence Erosion and Herding Behavior in Bond Markets: An Essay on Central Bank Communication Strategy

Author

Listed:
  • Koichiro Kamada

    (Bank of Japan)

  • Ko Miura

    (Bank of Japan)

Abstract

This paper examines the distinctive behavior of long-term interest rates observed after the Bank of Japan's introduction of quantitative and qualitative monetary easing, by focusing on changes in traders' confidence and herding behavior. When participants in bond markets lose confidence in their outlook for future interest rates, their investment decision depends heavily on the developments of market prices. This often leads to herding behavior among traders and destabilizes market prices: demand fuels further demand, or supply fuels further supply. This study develops a theoretical model and employs it for stochastic simulations to show that volatility of bond prices and trading volumes is affected by a number of factors, such as investors' confidence in the financial environment, the usefulness or value of information available in the market, and the market liquidity of bonds. In addition, the model is fitted to actual data to specify the driving forces underlying the changes in long-term interest rate volatility observed in 2013. The analysis shows that the key to understanding the developments in long-term interest rates during this period lies in how traders interpreted information flows in the market, especially the announcement by the Bank of Japan regarding its policy change, and in capturing the extent to which their confidence was weakened or strengthened by those information flows. The findings of the analysis highlight the importance of formulating a communication strategy as part of the conduct of monetary policy and the challenges in implementing such a strategy.

Suggested Citation

  • Koichiro Kamada & Ko Miura, 2014. "Confidence Erosion and Herding Behavior in Bond Markets: An Essay on Central Bank Communication Strategy," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 14-E-6, Bank of Japan.
    • Handle: RePEc:boj:bojwps:wp14e06
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.boj.or.jp/en/research/wps_rev/wps_2014/data/wp14e06.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Makoto Nirei & Tsutomu Watanabe, 2014. "Beauty Contests and Fat Tails in Financial Markets," UTokyo Price Project Working Paper Series 024, University of Tokyo, Graduate School of Economics.
    2. Xavier Gabaix & Parameswaran Gopikrishnan & Vasiliki Plerou & H. Eugene Stanley, 2006. "Institutional Investors and Stock Market Volatility," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 121(2), pages 461-504.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Donato Masciandaro & Davide Romelli & Gaia Rubera, 2021. "Monetary policy, Twitter and financial markets: evidence from social media traffic," BAFFI CAREFIN Working Papers 21160, BAFFI CAREFIN, Centre for Applied Research on International Markets Banking Finance and Regulation, Universita' Bocconi, Milano, Italy.
    2. Kamada, Koichiro & Kurosaki, Tetsuo & Miura, Ko & Yamada, Tetsuya, 2022. "Central bank policy announcements and changes in trading behavior: Evidence from bond futures high frequency price data," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 59(C).
    3. Makoto Nirei & John Stachurski & Tsutomu Watanabe, 2018. "Trade Clustering and Power Laws in Financial Markets (Published in Theoretical Economics, 15:1365?1398, 2020)," CARF F-Series CARF-F-450, Center for Advanced Research in Finance, Faculty of Economics, The University of Tokyo.
    4. Makoto Nirei & Tsutomu Watanabe, 2014. "Beauty Contests and Fat Tails in Financial Markets," UTokyo Price Project Working Paper Series 024, University of Tokyo, Graduate School of Economics.
    5. Michael Chui & Ingo Fender & Vladyslav Sushko, 2014. "Risks related to EME corporate balance sheets: the role of leverage and currency mismatch," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, September.
    6. Donato Masciandaro & Davide Romelli & Gaia Rubera, 2021. "Monetary policy and financial markets: evidence from Twitter traffic," BAFFI CAREFIN Working Papers 21160, BAFFI CAREFIN, Centre for Applied Research on International Markets Banking Finance and Regulation, Universita' Bocconi, Milano, Italy.
    7. Nirei, Makoto & Stachurski, John & Watanabe, Tsutomu, 2020. "Trade clustering and power laws in financial markets," Theoretical Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 15(4), November.
    8. Donato Masciandaro & Davide Romelli, 2016. "From Silence to Voice: Monetary Policy, Central Bank Governance and Communication," BAFFI CAREFIN Working Papers 1627, BAFFI CAREFIN, Centre for Applied Research on International Markets Banking Finance and Regulation, Universita' Bocconi, Milano, Italy.
    9. Donato Masciandaro & Davide Romelli & Gaia Rubera, 2020. "Tweeting on Monetary Policy and Market Sentiments: The Central Bank Surprise Index," BAFFI CAREFIN Working Papers 20134, BAFFI CAREFIN, Centre for Applied Research on International Markets Banking Finance and Regulation, Universita' Bocconi, Milano, Italy.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Makoto Nirei & John Stachurski & Tsutomu Watanabe, 2018. "Trade Clustering and Power Laws in Financial Markets (Published in Theoretical Economics, 15:1365?1398, 2020)," CARF F-Series CARF-F-450, Center for Advanced Research in Finance, Faculty of Economics, The University of Tokyo.
    2. Abduraimova, Kumushoy, 2022. "Contagion and tail risk in complex financial networks," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 143(C).
    3. Hartwell, Christopher A., 2014. "The impact of institutional volatility on financial volatility in transition economies : a GARCH family approach," BOFIT Discussion Papers 6/2014, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
    4. Lixiang Wang & Wendi Hou & Yupei Liu, 2023. "How do co‐shareholding networks affect negative media coverage? Evidence from China," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 63(4), pages 4221-4249, December.
    5. Chen, Zhimin & Ibragimov, Rustam, 2019. "One country, two systems? The heavy-tailedness of Chinese A- and H- share markets," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 115-141.
    6. Wang, Xiao-Tian & Li, Zhe & Zhuang, Le, 2017. "European option pricing under the Student’s t noise with jumps," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 469(C), pages 848-858.
    7. Scott C. Linn & Nicholas S. P. Tay, 2007. "Complexity and the Character of Stock Returns: Empirical Evidence and a Model of Asset Prices Based on Complex Investor Learning," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 53(7), pages 1165-1180, July.
    8. Rhee, S. Ghon & Wang, Jianxin, 2009. "Foreign institutional ownership and stock market liquidity: Evidence from Indonesia," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(7), pages 1312-1324, July.
    9. Xavier Gabaix, 2007. "Linearity-Generating Processes: A Modelling Tool Yielding Closed Forms for Asset Prices," NBER Working Papers 13430, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Jovanovic, Franck & Schinckus, Christophe, 2016. "Breaking down the barriers between econophysics and financial economics," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 256-266.
    11. Sofiene El Aoud & Frédéric Abergel, 2015. "A stochastic control approach for options market making," Post-Print hal-01061852, HAL.
    12. Rafael González-Val, 2021. "The Probability Distribution of Worldwide Forest Areas," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(3), pages 1-19, January.
    13. Özgür Özel & Mustafa Utku Özmen & Erdal Yılmaz, 2021. "Foreign investor dominance and low domestic investor absorption capacity: Implications on capital outflows," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(3), pages 4361-4371, July.
    14. Thibault Jaisson, 2014. "Market impact as anticipation of the order flow imbalance," Papers 1402.1288, arXiv.org.
    15. Hendershott, Terrence & Menkveld, Albert J., 2014. "Price pressures," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 114(3), pages 405-423.
    16. Thomas, Ashok & Spataro, Luca & Mathew, Nanditha, 2014. "Pension funds and stock market volatility: An empirical analysis of OECD countries," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 11(C), pages 92-103.
    17. Xavier Gabaix & Augustin Landier, 2008. "Why has CEO Pay Increased So Much?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 123(1), pages 49-100.
    18. Einmahl, John & He, Y., 2020. "Unified Extreme Value Estimation for Heterogeneous Data," Other publications TiSEM dfe6c38c-823b-4394-b4fd-a, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    19. Anirban Chakraborti & Ioane Muni Toke & Marco Patriarca & Frederic Abergel, 2011. "Econophysics review: I. Empirical facts," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(7), pages 991-1012.
    20. Jianfeng Guo & Bin Su & Guang Yang & Lianyong Feng & Yinpeng Liu & Fu Gu, 2018. "How Do Verified Emissions Announcements Affect the Comoves between Trading Behaviors and Carbon Prices? Evidence from EU ETS," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(9), pages 1-17, September.

    More about this item

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:boj:bojwps:wp14e06. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Bank of Japan (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/bojgvjp.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.