IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pie/dsedps/2013-162.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Pension funds and Stock Market Volatility: An Empirical Analysis of OECD countries

Author

Listed:
  • Thomas Ashok
  • Luca Spataro
  • Mathew Nanditha

Abstract

The paper explores the empirical relationship between the share of pension fund s'assets invested in stocks and stock market volatility in OECD markets. For this purpose, by using panel data of 34 OECD countries from 2000 to 2010, we estimate both a random effects panel model and a Prais-Winsten regression with panel corrected standard errors and autoregressive errors. The econometric estimation documents that there is a significant negative relationship between the share of pension funds assets invested in stocks and stock market volatility in OECD markets. The binary Probit and Logit models further validate the argument that pension funds as institutional investors can dampen stock market volatility.

Suggested Citation

  • Thomas Ashok & Luca Spataro & Mathew Nanditha, 2013. "Pension funds and Stock Market Volatility: An Empirical Analysis of OECD countries," Discussion Papers 2013/162, Dipartimento di Economia e Management (DEM), University of Pisa, Pisa, Italy.
    • Handle: RePEc:pie:dsedps:2013/162
    Note: ISSN 2039-1854
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.ec.unipi.it/documents/Ricerca/papers/2013-162.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Valerie R. Bencivenga & Bruce D. Smith, 1991. "Financial Intermediation and Endogenous Growth," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 58(2), pages 195-209.
    2. Figlewski, Stephen, 1979. "Subjective Information and Market Efficiency in a Betting Market," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 87(1), pages 75-88, February.
    3. Lakonishok, Josef & Shleifer, Andrei & Vishny, Robert W., 1992. "The impact of institutional trading on stock prices," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 23-43, August.
    4. Beck, Thorsten & Levine, Ross, 2004. "Stock markets, banks, and growth: Panel evidence," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 423-442, March.
    5. Paul A. Gompers & Andrew Metrick, 2001. "Institutional Investors and Equity Prices," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 116(1), pages 229-259.
    6. Andrew Ang & Angela Maddaloni, 2005. "Do Demographic Changes Affect Risk Premiums? Evidence from International Data," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 78(1), pages 341-380, January.
    7. Eduardo Walker & Fernando Lefort, 2002. "Pension Reform And Capital Markets: Are There Any (Hard) Links?," Abante, Escuela de Administracion. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile., vol. 5(2), pages 77-149.
    8. Martin Feldstein, 1983. "Inflation, Tax Rules, and the Stock Market," NBER Chapters, in: Inflation, Tax Rules, and Capital Formation, pages 199-220, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. A. Bhargava & L. Franzini & W. Narendranathan, 2006. "Serial Correlation and the Fixed Effects Model," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Econometrics, Statistics And Computational Approaches In Food And Health Sciences, chapter 4, pages 61-77, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    10. Robert G. King & Ross Levine, 1993. "Finance and Growth: Schumpeter Might Be Right," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 108(3), pages 717-737.
    11. Levine, Ross & Zervos, Sara, 1998. "Stock Markets, Banks, and Economic Growth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 88(3), pages 537-558, June.
    12. Ross Levine, 1997. "Financial Development and Economic Growth: Views and Agenda," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 35(2), pages 688-726, June.
    13. Ron Kaniel & Gideon Saar & Sheridan Titman, 2008. "Individual Investor Trading and Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 63(1), pages 273-310, February.
    14. Rajan, Raghuram G & Zingales, Luigi, 1998. "Financial Dependence and Growth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 88(3), pages 559-586, June.
    15. T. S. Breusch & A. R. Pagan, 1980. "The Lagrange Multiplier Test and its Applications to Model Specification in Econometrics," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 47(1), pages 239-253.
    16. Martin Feldstein, 1983. "Inflation and the Stock Market," NBER Chapters, in: Inflation, Tax Rules, and Capital Formation, pages 186-198, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    17. John C. Driscoll & Aart C. Kraay, 1998. "Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimation With Spatially Dependent Panel Data," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 80(4), pages 549-560, November.
    18. De Long, J Bradford & Andrei Shleifer & Lawrence H. Summers & Robert J. Waldmann, 1990. "Noise Trader Risk in Financial Markets," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 98(4), pages 703-738, August.
    19. Richard W. Sias, 2004. "Institutional Herding," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 17(1), pages 165-206.
    20. Davis, E. Philip, 2002. "Prudent person rules or quantitative restrictions? The regulation of long-term institutional investors' portfolios," Journal of Pension Economics and Finance, Cambridge University Press, vol. 1(2), pages 157-191, July.
    21. Russ Wermers, 1999. "Mutual Fund Herding and the Impact on Stock Prices," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 54(2), pages 581-622, April.
    22. Beck, Thorsten & Lundberg, Mattias & Majnoni, Giovanni, 2006. "Financial intermediary development and growth volatility: Do intermediaries dampen or magnify shocks?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(7), pages 1146-1167, November.
    23. Jeannine Bailliu & Helmut Reisen, 1998. "Do funded pensions contribute to higher aggregate savings? A cross-country analysis," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 134(4), pages 692-711, December.
    24. Scharfstein, David S & Stein, Jeremy C, 1990. "Herd Behavior and Investment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(3), pages 465-479, June.
    25. Brad M. Barber & Terrance Odean, 2008. "All That Glitters: The Effect of Attention and News on the Buying Behavior of Individual and Institutional Investors," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 21(2), pages 785-818, April.
    26. Cai, Fang & Zheng, Lu, 2004. "Institutional trading and stock returns," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 1(3), pages 178-189, September.
    27. Frees, Edward W., 1995. "Assessing cross-sectional correlation in panel data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 69(2), pages 393-414, October.
    28. Asli Demirgüç-Kunt & Vojislav Maksimovic, 1998. "Law, Finance, and Firm Growth," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 53(6), pages 2107-2137, December.
    29. Coronado, Julie L. & Engen, Eric M. & Knight, Brian, 2003. "Public Funds and Private Capital Markets: The Investment Practices and Performance of State and Local Pension Funds," National Tax Journal, National Tax Association;National Tax Journal, vol. 56(3), pages 579-594, September.
    30. Robert T. Daigler & Marilyn K. Wiley, 1999. "The Impact of Trader Type on the Futures Volatility-Volume Relation," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 54(6), pages 2297-2316, December.
    31. Antã“N, Josã‰-Ignacio & De Bustillo, Rafael Muã‘Oz & Fernã Ndez-Macã As, Enrique, 2014. "Supplementary private pensions and saving: evidence from Spain," Journal of Pension Economics and Finance, Cambridge University Press, vol. 13(4), pages 367-388, October.
    32. Cohen, Randolph B. & Gompers, Paul A. & Vuolteenaho, Tuomo, 2002. "Who underreacts to cash-flow news? evidence from trading between individuals and institutions," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(2-3), pages 409-462.
    33. Froot, Kenneth A & Scharftstein, David S & Stein, Jeremy C, 1992. " Herd on the Street: Informational Inefficiencies in a Market with Short-Term Speculation," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(4), pages 1461-1484, September.
    34. Aggarwal, Raj & Rao, Ramesh P, 1990. "Institutional Ownership and Distribution of Equity Returns," The Financial Review, Eastern Finance Association, vol. 25(2), pages 211-229, May.
    35. Musalem, Alberto R. & Impavido, Gregorio & Tressel, Thierry, 2001. "Contractual savings, capital markets, and firms'financing choices," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2612, The World Bank.
    36. Xavier Gabaix & Parameswaran Gopikrishnan & Vasiliki Plerou & H. Eugene Stanley, 2006. "Institutional Investors and Stock Market Volatility," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 121(2), pages 461-504.
    37. Karolyi, G. Andrew, 2002. "Did the Asian financial crisis scare foreign investors out of Japan?," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 10(4), pages 411-442, September.
    38. Li, Wei & Wang, Steven Shuye, 2010. "Daily institutional trades and stock price volatility in a retail investor dominated emerging market," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 13(4), pages 448-474, November.
    39. Choe, Hyuk & Kho, Bong-Chan & Stulz, Rene M., 1999. "Do foreign investors destabilize stock markets? The Korean experience in 1997," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(2), pages 227-264, October.
    40. Walker, Eduardo*Lefort, Fernando, 2002. "Pension reform and capital markets : are there any (hard) links?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 24082, The World Bank.
    41. Woidtke, Tracie, 2002. "Agents watching agents?: evidence from pension fund ownership and firm value," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(1), pages 99-131, January.
    42. Bohl, Martin T. & Brzeszczynski, Janusz & Wilfling, Bernd, 2009. "Institutional investors and stock returns volatility: Empirical evidence from a natural experiment," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 170-182, June.
    43. Gillan, Stuart L. & Starks, Laura T., 2000. "Corporate governance proposals and shareholder activism: the role of institutional investors," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(2), pages 275-305, August.
    44. Svitlana Voronkova & Martin T. Bohl, 2005. "Institutional Traders' Behavior in an Emerging Stock Market: Empirical Evidence on Polish Pension Fund Investors," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 32(7-8), pages 1537-1560.
    45. John Y. Campbell & Albert S. Kyle, 1993. "Smart Money, Noise Trading and Stock Price Behaviour," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 60(1), pages 1-34.
    46. Grier, Paul C & Albin, Peter S, 1973. "Nonrandom Price Changes in Association with Trading in Large Blocks," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 46(3), pages 425-433, July.
    47. John R. Nofsinger & Richard W. Sias, 1999. "Herding and Feedback Trading by Institutional and Individual Investors," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 54(6), pages 2263-2295, December.
    48. Jain, Ravi, 2007. "Institutional and individual investor preferences for dividends and share repurchases," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 59(5), pages 406-429.
    49. Sam Wylie, 2005. "Fund Manager Herding: A Test of the Accuracy of Empirical Results Using U.K. Data," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 78(1), pages 381-403, January.
    50. Chopra, Navin & Lakonishok, Josef & Ritter, Jay R., 1992. "Measuring abnormal performance : Do stocks overreact?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 235-268, April.
    51. Dimitri Vittas, 1996. "Pension Funds and Capital Markets : Investment Regulation, Financial Innovation, and Governance," World Bank Other Operational Studies 11632, The World Bank.
    52. Patrick J. Dennis & Deon Strickland, 2002. "Who Blinks in Volatile Markets, Individuals or Institutions?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(5), pages 1923-1949, October.
    53. Kyle, Albert S, 1985. "Continuous Auctions and Insider Trading," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 53(6), pages 1315-1335, November.
    54. Klemkosky, Robert C, 1977. "The Impact and Efficiency of Institutional Net Trading Imbalances," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 32(1), pages 79-86, March.
    55. Brown, Keith C & Harlow, W V & Starks, Laura T, 1996. " Of Tournaments and Temptations: An Analysis of Managerial Incentives in the Mutual Fund Industry," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(1), pages 85-110, March.
    56. Oecd, 2006. "The Impact of Pension Funds on Financial Markets," Financial Market Trends, OECD Publishing, vol. 2006(2), pages 145-167.
    57. Hirshleifer, David & Subrahmanyam, Avanidhar & Titman, Sheridan, 1994. " Security Analysis and Trading Patterns When Some Investors Receive Information before Others," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 49(5), pages 1665-1698, December.
    58. Rubin, Amir & Smith, Daniel R., 2009. "Institutional ownership, volatility and dividends," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 627-639, April.
    59. Wahal, Sunil, 1996. "Pension Fund Activism and Firm Performance," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 31(1), pages 1-23, March.
    60. Smith, Michael P, 1996. " Shareholder Activism by Institutional Investors: Evidence for CalPERS," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(1), pages 227-252, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Senderski, Marcin, 2014. "Assessing the strictness of portfolio-related regulation of pension funds: Rethinking the definition of prudent," MPRA Paper 56610, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. repec:eee:finana:v:55:y:2018:i:c:p:50-59 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. repec:eee:ecosys:v:43:y:2019:i:1:p:130-150 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. repec:eee:finlet:v:22:y:2017:i:c:p:20-29 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Alda, Mercedes, 2017. "The relationship between pension funds and the stock market: Does the aging population of Europe affect it?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 83-97.
    6. Ashok Thomas & Luca Spataro, 2013. "Pension funds and Market Efficiency: A review," Discussion Papers 2013/164, Dipartimento di Economia e Management (DEM), University of Pisa, Pisa, Italy.
    7. repec:kap:jfamec:v:39:y:2018:i:4:d:10.1007_s10834-018-9576-5 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. repec:spr:annopr:v:279:y:2019:i:1:d:10.1007_s10479-018-3100-z is not listed on IDEAS
    9. repec:cup:jpenef:v:18:y:2019:i:03:p:347-387_00 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Ian Koetsier & Jacob Bikker, 2018. "Herding behavior of Dutch pension funds in asset class investments," DNB Working Papers 602, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
    11. repec:eee:ecofin:v:48:y:2019:i:c:p:321-337 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. repec:eee:ememar:v:31:y:2017:i:c:p:176-192 is not listed on IDEAS

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Pension funds; Stock market volatility; Panel data.;

    JEL classification:

    • G23 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Non-bank Financial Institutions; Financial Instruments; Institutional Investors
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pie:dsedps:2013/162. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/dspisit.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.