IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/intfin/v26y2013icp291-304.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Time-variations in herding behavior: Evidence from a Markov switching SUR model

Author

Listed:
  • Klein, Arne C.

Abstract

This paper aims at testing for time-variations in herd behavior in stock markets. In particular, we analyze how investors’ behavior differs between times of market turmoil and tranquil trading periods. Thereby, we take into account herding within a certain market as well as international spillovers in herd formation. Our evidence for the US and the Euroarea suggests that, during periods of high volatility, deviations from rational asset pricing are more persistent and spillovers between the markets are substantially amplified. In general, our findings show that during periods of crisis, like the recent global financial crisis and the period after the dot.com bubble bursting, stock prices are much more driven by behavioral effects compared to tranquil times.

Suggested Citation

  • Klein, Arne C., 2013. "Time-variations in herding behavior: Evidence from a Markov switching SUR model," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 291-304.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:intfin:v:26:y:2013:i:c:p:291-304
    DOI: 10.1016/j.intfin.2013.06.006
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1042443113000437
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.intfin.2013.06.006?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Chang, Eric C. & Cheng, Joseph W. & Khorana, Ajay, 2000. "An examination of herd behavior in equity markets: An international perspective," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(10), pages 1651-1679, October.
    2. Sentana, Enrique & Wadhwani, Sushil B, 1992. "Feedback Traders and Stock Return Autocorrelations: Evidence from a Century of Daily Data," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 102(411), pages 415-425, March.
    3. Lakonishok, Josef & Shleifer, Andrei & Vishny, Robert W., 1992. "The impact of institutional trading on stock prices," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 23-43, August.
    4. Robert J. Shiller, 1984. "Stock Prices and Social Dynamics," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 15(2), pages 457-510.
    5. Chang, Eric C. & McQueen, Grant R. & Pinegar, J. Michael, 1999. "Cross-autocorrelation in Asian stock markets," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 7(5), pages 471-493, December.
    6. Campbell, John Y, 1991. "A Variance Decomposition for Stock Returns," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 101(405), pages 157-179, March.
    7. Malcolm Baker & Jeffrey Wurgler, 2006. "Investor Sentiment and the Cross‐Section of Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 61(4), pages 1645-1680, August.
    8. Eduardo Borensztein & R. Gaston Gelos, 2003. "A Panic-Prone Pack? The Behavior of Emerging Market Mutual Funds," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 50(1), pages 1-3.
    9. LeBaron, Blake, 1992. "Some Relations between Volatility and Serial Correlations in Stock Market Returns," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 65(2), pages 199-219, April.
    10. Campbell, John Y., 1987. "Stock returns and the term structure," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 373-399, June.
    11. Richard W. Sias, 2004. "Institutional Herding," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 17(1), pages 165-206.
    12. Lee, Charles M C & Shleifer, Andrei & Thaler, Richard H, 1991. "Investor Sentiment and the Closed-End Fund Puzzle," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(1), pages 75-109, March.
    13. Koutmos, Gregory, 1997. "Feedback trading and the autocorrelation pattern of stock returns: further empirical evidence," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(4), pages 625-636, August.
    14. Kaminsky, Graciela L. & Schmukler, Sergio L., 1999. "What triggers market jitters?: A chronicle of the Asian crisis," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 537-560, August.
    15. Kaminsky, Graciela & Lyons, Richard K. & Schmukler, Sergio L., 2004. "Managers, investors, and crises: mutual fund strategies in emerging markets," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(1), pages 113-134, October.
    16. Corsetti, Giancarlo & Pericoli, Marcello & Sbracia, Massimo, 2005. "'Some contagion, some interdependence': More pitfalls in tests of financial contagion," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(8), pages 1177-1199, December.
    17. Devenow, Andrea & Welch, Ivo, 1996. "Rational herding in financial economics," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 40(3-5), pages 603-615, April.
    18. Karolyi, G. Andrew, 2002. "Did the Asian financial crisis scare foreign investors out of Japan?," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 10(4), pages 411-442, September.
    19. Hodrick, Robert J, 1992. "Dividend Yields and Expected Stock Returns: Alternative Procedures for Inference and Measurement," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 5(3), pages 357-386.
    20. Geert Bekaert & Campbell R. Harvey & Angela Ng, 2005. "Market Integration and Contagion," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 78(1), pages 39-70, January.
    21. Lee, Wayne Y. & Jiang, Christine X. & Indro, Daniel C., 2002. "Stock market volatility, excess returns, and the role of investor sentiment," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(12), pages 2277-2299.
    22. White, Halbert, 1980. "A Heteroskedasticity-Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimator and a Direct Test for Heteroskedasticity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(4), pages 817-838, May.
    23. Welch, Ivo, 2000. "Herding among security analysts," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(3), pages 369-396, December.
    24. Hamilton, James D., 1990. "Analysis of time series subject to changes in regime," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 45(1-2), pages 39-70.
    25. Svitlana Voronkova & Martin T. Bohl, 2005. "Institutional Traders’ Behavior in an Emerging Stock Market: Empirical Evidence on Polish Pension Fund Investors," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 32(7‐8), pages 1537-1560, September.
    26. Kristin J. Forbes & Roberto Rigobon, 2002. "No Contagion, Only Interdependence: Measuring Stock Market Comovements," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(5), pages 2223-2261, October.
    27. Andrew W. Lo, A. Craig MacKinlay, 1988. "Stock Market Prices do not Follow Random Walks: Evidence from a Simple Specification Test," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 1(1), pages 41-66.
    28. K. Geert Rouwenhorst, 1998. "International Momentum Strategies," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 53(1), pages 267-284, February.
    29. Mardi Dungey & Renee Fry & Brenda Gonzalez-Hermosillo & Vance Martin, 2005. "Empirical modelling of contagion: a review of methodologies," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 5(1), pages 9-24.
    30. Jegadeesh, Narasimhan & Titman, Sheridan, 1993. "Returns to Buying Winners and Selling Losers: Implications for Stock Market Efficiency," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(1), pages 65-91, March.
    31. Scharfstein, David S & Stein, Jeremy C, 1990. "Herd Behavior and Investment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(3), pages 465-479, June.
    32. Gleason, Kimberly C. & Mathur, Ike & Peterson, Mark A., 2004. "Analysis of intraday herding behavior among the sector ETFs," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 11(5), pages 681-694, December.
    33. Mr. Sunil Sharma & Sushil Bikhchandani, 2000. "Herd Behavior in Financial Markets: A Review," IMF Working Papers 2000/048, International Monetary Fund.
    34. Hwang, Soosung & Salmon, Mark, 2004. "Market stress and herding," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 11(4), pages 585-616, September.
    35. Chiang, Thomas C. & Zheng, Dazhi, 2010. "An empirical analysis of herd behavior in global stock markets," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(8), pages 1911-1921, August.
    36. Avery, Christopher & Zemsky, Peter, 1998. "Multidimensional Uncertainty and Herd Behavior in Financial Markets," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 88(4), pages 724-748, September.
    37. Ferson, Wayne E & Kandel, Shmuel & Stambaugh, Robert F, 1987. "Tests of Asset Pricing with Time-Varying Expected Risk Premiums and Market Betas," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 42(2), pages 201-220, June.
    38. Russ Wermers, 1999. "Mutual Fund Herding and the Impact on Stock Prices," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 54(2), pages 581-622, April.
    39. Turkington, Darrell, 2000. "Generalised vec operators and the seemingly unrelated regression equations model with vector correlated disturbances," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 99(2), pages 225-253, December.
    40. Tan, Lin & Chiang, Thomas C. & Mason, Joseph R. & Nelling, Edward, 2008. "Herding behavior in Chinese stock markets: An examination of A and B shares," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 16(1-2), pages 61-77, January.
    41. Grinblatt, Mark & Titman, Sheridan & Wermers, Russ, 1995. "Momentum Investment Strategies, Portfolio Performance, and Herding: A Study of Mutual Fund Behavior," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 85(5), pages 1088-1105, December.
    42. Balcilar, Mehmet & Demirer, Rıza & Hammoudeh, Shawkat, 2013. "Investor herds and regime-switching: Evidence from Gulf Arab stock markets," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 23(C), pages 295-321.
    43. Merton, Robert C, 1973. "An Intertemporal Capital Asset Pricing Model," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 41(5), pages 867-887, September.
    44. Choe, Hyuk & Kho, Bong-Chan & Stulz, Rene M., 1999. "Do foreign investors destabilize stock markets? The Korean experience in 1997," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(2), pages 227-264, October.
    45. François Longin & Bruno Solnik, 2001. "Extreme Correlation of International Equity Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(2), pages 649-676, April.
    46. Svitlana Voronkova & Martin T. Bohl, 2005. "Institutional Traders' Behavior in an Emerging Stock Market: Empirical Evidence on Polish Pension Fund Investors," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 32(7-8), pages 1537-1560.
    47. William F. Sharpe, 1964. "Capital Asset Prices: A Theory Of Market Equilibrium Under Conditions Of Risk," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 19(3), pages 425-442, September.
    48. Kim, Chang-Jin, 1994. "Dynamic linear models with Markov-switching," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 60(1-2), pages 1-22.
    49. Sam Wylie, 2005. "Fund Manager Herding: A Test of the Accuracy of Empirical Results Using U.K. Data," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 78(1), pages 381-403, January.
    50. John R. Graham, 1999. "Herding among Investment Newsletters: Theory and Evidence," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 54(1), pages 237-268, February.
    51. Patrick J. Dennis & Deon Strickland, 2002. "Who Blinks in Volatile Markets, Individuals or Institutions?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(5), pages 1923-1949, October.
    52. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Nikolaos Philippas & Fotini Economou, 2008. "Herding behaviour in extreme market conditions: the case of the Athens Stock Exchange," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 7(17), pages 1-13.
    53. repec:ebl:ecbull:v:7:y:2008:i:17:p:1-13 is not listed on IDEAS
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Puput Tri Komalasari & Marwan Asri & Bernardinus M. Purwanto & Bowo Setiyono, 2022. "Herding behaviour in the capital market: What do we know and what is next?," Management Review Quarterly, Springer, vol. 72(3), pages 745-787, September.
    2. Pegah Dehghani & Ros Zam Zam Sapian, 2014. "Sectoral herding behavior in the aftermarket of Malaysian IPOs," Venture Capital, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(3), pages 227-246, July.
    3. Philippas, Nikolaos & Economou, Fotini & Babalos, Vassilios & Kostakis, Alexandros, 2013. "Herding behavior in REITs: Novel tests and the role of financial crisis," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 166-174.
    4. Gębka, Bartosz & Wohar, Mark E., 2013. "International herding: Does it differ across sectors?," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 23(C), pages 55-84.
    5. Economou, Fotini & Gavriilidis, Konstantinos & Goyal, Abhinav & Kallinterakis, Vasileios, 2015. "Herding dynamics in exchange groups: Evidence from Euronext," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 228-244.
    6. Guney, Yilmaz & Kallinterakis, Vasileios & Komba, Gabriel, 2017. "Herding in frontier markets: Evidence from African stock exchanges," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 152-175.
    7. I. Koetsier & J.A. Bikker, 2017. "Herding behaviour of Dutch pension funds in sovereign bond investments," Working Papers 17-15, Utrecht School of Economics.
    8. Frey, Stefan & Herbst, Patrick & Walter, Andreas, 2014. "Measuring mutual fund herding – A structural approach," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 219-239.
    9. Arjoon, Vaalmikki & Bhatnagar, Chandra Shekhar & Ramlakhan, Prakash, 2020. "Herding in the Singapore stock Exchange," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 109(C).
    10. Galariotis, Emilios C. & Rong, Wu & Spyrou, Spyros I., 2015. "Herding on fundamental information: A comparative study," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 589-598.
    11. Andrikopoulos, Panagiotis & Kallinterakis, Vasileios & Leite Ferreira, Mario Pedro & Verousis, Thanos, 2017. "Intraday herding on a cross-border exchange," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 25-36.
    12. Itzhak Venezia, 2018. "Lecture Notes in Behavioral Finance," World Scientific Books, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., number 10751, January.
    13. Fotini Economou & Konstantinos Gavriilidis & Bartosz Gebka & Vasileios Kallinterakis, 2022. "Feedback trading: a review of theory and empirical evidence," Review of Behavioral Finance, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 15(4), pages 429-476, February.
    14. Bohl, Martin T. & Klein, Arne C. & Siklos, Pierre L., 2013. "Are short sellers positive feedback traders? Evidence from the global financial crisis," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 9(3), pages 337-346.
    15. Daniel, Kent & Hirshleifer, David & Teoh, Siew Hong, 2002. "Investor psychology in capital markets: evidence and policy implications," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(1), pages 139-209, January.
    16. Tihana Škrinjarić, 2018. "Revisiting Herding Investment Behavior on the Zagreb Stock Exchange: A Quantile Regression Approach," Econometric Research in Finance, SGH Warsaw School of Economics, Collegium of Economic Analysis, vol. 3(2), pages 119-162, December.
    17. Moatemri Ouarda & Abdelfatteh El Bouri & Olivero Bernard, 2013. "Herding Behavior under Markets Condition: Empirical Evidence on the European Financial Markets," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 3(1), pages 214-228.
    18. Duygun, Meryem & Tunaru, Radu & Vioto, Davide, 2021. "Herding by corporates in the US and the Eurozone through different market conditions," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 110(C).
    19. I. Koetsier & J.A. Bikker, 2017. "Herding behaviour of Dutch pension funds in sovereign bond investments," Working Papers 17-15, Utrecht School of Economics.
    20. Andrey Kudryavtsev, 2019. "Short-Term Herding Effect On Market Index Returns," Annals of Financial Economics (AFE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 14(01), pages 1-16, March.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Herding; Asset pricing; Financial crisis; Markov switching seemingly unrelated regressions;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • G18 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Government Policy and Regulation

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:intfin:v:26:y:2013:i:c:p:291-304. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/intfin .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.