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Market impact as anticipation of the order flow imbalance

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  • Thibault Jaisson

Abstract

In this paper, we assume that the permanent market impact of metaorders is linear and that the price is a martingale. Those two hypotheses enable us to derive the evolution of the price from the dynamics of the flow of market orders. For example, if the market order flow is assumed to follow a nearly unstable Hawkes process, we retrieve the apparent long memory of the flow together with a power law impact function which is consistent with the celebrated square root law. We also link the long memory exponent of the sign of market orders with the impact function exponent. One of the originalities of our approach is that our results are derived without assuming that market participants are able to detect the beginning of metaorders.

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  • Thibault Jaisson, 2014. "Market impact as anticipation of the order flow imbalance," Papers 1402.1288, arXiv.org.
  • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:1402.1288
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Emmanuel Bacry & Iacopo Mastromatteo & Jean-Franc{c}ois Muzy, 2015. "Hawkes processes in finance," Papers 1502.04592, arXiv.org, revised May 2015.
    2. Emmanuel Bacry & Thibault Jaisson & Jean--François Muzy, 2016. "Estimation of slowly decreasing Hawkes kernels: application to high-frequency order book dynamics," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(8), pages 1179-1201, August.

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