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Market impact as anticipation of the order flow imbalance

  • Thibault Jaisson
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    In this paper, we assume that the permanent market impact of metaorders is linear and that the price is a martingale. Those two hypotheses enable us to derive the evolution of the price from the dynamics of the flow of market orders. For example, if the market order flow is assumed to follow a nearly unstable Hawkes process, we retrieve the apparent long memory of the flow together with a power law impact function which is consistent with the celebrated square root law. We also link the long memory exponent of the sign of market orders with the impact function exponent. One of the originalities of our approach is that our results are derived without assuming that market participants are able to detect the beginning of metaorders.

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    File URL: http://arxiv.org/pdf/1402.1288
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    Paper provided by arXiv.org in its series Papers with number 1402.1288.

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    Date of creation: Feb 2014
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    Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:1402.1288
    Contact details of provider: Web page: http://arxiv.org/

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    2. Ananth Madhavan & Matthew Richardson & Mark Roomans, . "Why Do Security Prices Change? A Transaction-Level Analysis of NYSE Stocks," Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers 20-94, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research.
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    4. Thibault Jaisson & Mathieu Rosenbaum, 2013. "Limit theorems for nearly unstable Hawkes processes," Papers 1310.2033, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2015.
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    9. Esteban Moro & Javier Vicente & Luis G. Moyano & Austin Gerig & J. Doyne Farmer & Gabriella Vaglica & Fabrizio Lillo & Rosario N. Mantegna, 2009. "Market impact and trading profile of large trading orders in stock markets," Papers 0908.0202, arXiv.org.
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    12. Jean-Philippe Bouchaud & Yuval Gefen & Marc Potters & Matthieu Wyart, 2004. "Fluctuations and response in financial markets: the subtle nature of 'random' price changes," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 4(2), pages 176-190.
    13. E. Bacry & S. Delattre & M. Hoffmann & J. F. Muzy, 2013. "Modelling microstructure noise with mutually exciting point processes," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(1), pages 65-77, January.
    14. Xavier Gabaix & Parameswaran Gopikrishnan & Vasiliki Plerou & H. Eugene Stanley, 2005. "Institutional Investors and Stock Market Volatility," NBER Working Papers 11722, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    15. Yacine Aït-Sahalia & Julio Cacho-Diaz & Roger J.A. Laeven, 2010. "Modeling Financial Contagion Using Mutually Exciting Jump Processes," NBER Working Papers 15850, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    16. Jim Gatheral, 2010. "No-dynamic-arbitrage and market impact," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(7), pages 749-759.
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