IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/arx/papers/1302.1405.html

Critical reflexivity in financial markets: a Hawkes process analysis

Author

Listed:
  • Stephen J. Hardiman
  • Nicolas Bercot
  • Jean-Philippe Bouchaud

Abstract

We model the arrival of mid-price changes in the E-Mini S&P futures contract as a self-exciting Hawkes process. Using several estimation methods, we find that the Hawkes kernel is power-law with a decay exponent close to -1.15 at short times, less than approximately 10^3 seconds, and crosses over to a second power-law regime with a larger decay exponent of approximately -1.45 for longer times scales in the range [10^3, 10^6] seconds. More importantly, we find that the Hawkes kernel integrates to unity independently of the analysed period, from 1998 to 2011. This suggests that markets are and have always been close to criticality, challenging a recent study which indicates that reflexivity (endogeneity) has increased in recent years as a result of increased automation of trading. However, we note that the scale over which market events are correlated has decreased steadily over time with the emergence of higher frequency trading.

Suggested Citation

  • Stephen J. Hardiman & Nicolas Bercot & Jean-Philippe Bouchaud, 2013. "Critical reflexivity in financial markets: a Hawkes process analysis," Papers 1302.1405, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2013.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:1302.1405
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://arxiv.org/pdf/1302.1405
    File Function: Latest version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. repec:rnp:ecopol:09111 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2009. "Varieties of Crises and Their Dates," Introductory Chapters, in: This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly, Princeton University Press.
    3. Oecd, 2002. "Access for Business," OECD Digital Economy Papers 67, OECD Publishing.
    4. Vasilev, Aleksandar & Maksumov, Rashid, 2010. "Critical analysis of Chapter 23 of Keynes’s Notes on Mercantilism in The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money (1936)," EconStor Research Reports 155318, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Mughees Shaukat & Datuk Othman Alhabshi, 2015. "Instability of Interest Bearing Debt Finance and the Islamic Finance Alternative By Mughees Shaukat & Datuk Othman Alhabshi," Islamic Economic Studies, The Islamic Research and Training Institute (IRTI), vol. 23, pages 29-84.
    2. Roger E.A. Farmer, 2010. "Animal Spirits, Persistent Unemployment and the Belief Function," NBER Working Papers 16522, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Claessens, Stijn & Kose, M. Ayhan & Terrones, Marco E., 2012. "How do business and financial cycles interact?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(1), pages 178-190.
    4. Stern, Nicholas, 2009. "Imperfections in the Economics of Public Policy, Imperfections in Markets, and Climate Change," Sustainability Indicators and Environmental Valuation Working Papers 55333, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM).
    5. Sami Al-Suwailem, 2012. "Complexity and Endogenous Instability," ASSRU Discussion Papers 1203, ASSRU - Algorithmic Social Science Research Unit.
    6. Stephany Griffith-Jones, 2014. "Pour une libéralisation prudente du secteur financier : implications en matière de politique économique," Revue d’économie du développement, De Boeck Université, vol. 22(2), pages 81-112.
    7. Qiaoyun Yun & Peter A. Gloor, 2015. "The web mirrors value in the real world: comparing a firm’s valuation with its web network position," Computational and Mathematical Organization Theory, Springer, vol. 21(4), pages 356-379, December.
    8. Roger L. Ransom, 2016. "Confidence, Fear and a Propensity to Gamble: The Puzzle of War and Economics in an Age of Catastrophe 1914-45," Working Papers 201603, University of California at Riverside, Department of Economics.
    9. Timothy Erickson & Toni M. Whited, 2010. "Erratum: Measurement Error and the Relationship between Investment and q," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 118(6), pages 1252-1257.
    10. Tölö, Eero, 2019. "Predicting systemic financial crises with recurrent neural networks," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 14/2019, Bank of Finland.
    11. Jean-Louis Combes & Alexandru Minea & Pegdéwendé Nestor Sawadogo, 2019. "Assessing the effects of combating illicit financial flows on domestic tax revenue mobilization in developing countries," CERDI Working papers halshs-02019073, HAL.
    12. Dani Rodrik, 2018. "Populism and the economics of globalization," Journal of International Business Policy, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 1(1), pages 12-33, June.
    13. Lloyd Ulman, 1992. "Why Should Human Resource Managers Pay High Wages?," British Journal of Industrial Relations, London School of Economics, vol. 30(2), pages 177-212, June.
    14. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2014. "Recovery from Financial Crises: Evidence from 100 Episodes," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(5), pages 50-55, May.
    15. Pereira, Pedro & Ribeiro, Tiago, 2011. "The impact on broadband access to the Internet of the dual ownership of telephone and cable networks," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 283-293, March.
    16. Scott E. Page, 2012. "A complexity perspective on institutional design," Politics, Philosophy & Economics, , vol. 11(1), pages 5-25, February.
    17. Vitor Braga, 2004. "Business networking for SMEs as a means to promote regional competitiveness: A Theoretical Framework," ERSA conference papers ersa04p455, European Regional Science Association.
    18. Jaume Ventura & Hans-Joachim Voth, 2015. "Debt into growth: how sovereign debt accelerated the first industrial revolution," ECON - Working Papers 194, Department of Economics - University of Zurich.
    19. Ibrahim Ari & Muammer Koc, 2018. "Sustainable Financing for Sustainable Development: Understanding the Interrelations between Public Investment and Sovereign Debt," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(11), pages 1-25, October.
    20. Steven J. Davis & John C. Haltiwanger & Kyle Handley & Ben Lipsius & Josh Lerner & Javier Miranda, 2021. "The economic effects of private equity buyouts," Jena Economics Research Papers 2021-013, Friedrich-Schiller-University Jena.

    More about this item

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:arx:papers:1302.1405. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: arXiv administrators (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://arxiv.org/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.