Animal Spirits, Financial Crises and Persistent Unemployment
This paper develops a rational expectations model with multiple equilibrium unemployment rates where the price of capital may be unbounded above. I argue that this property is an important feature of any rational-agent explanation of a financial crisis, since for the expansion phase of the crisis to be rational, investors must credibly believe that asset prices could keep increasing forever with positive probability. I explain the sudden crash in asset prices that precipitates a financial crisis as a large negative self-fulfilling shock to the expectation of the future price of capital. This shock causes a permanent reduction in wealth and consumption and a permanent increase in the unemployment rate. My work suggests that economic policies designed to reduce the volatility of asset market movements will significantly increase economic welfare.
|Date of creation:||Jun 2011|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Centre for Economic Policy Research, 77 Bastwick Street, London EC1V 3PZ.|
Phone: 44 - 20 - 7183 8801
Fax: 44 - 20 - 7183 8820
|Order Information:|| Email: |
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Farmer, Roger E A, 2010.
"Animal Spirits, Persistent Unemployment and the Belief Function,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
8100, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Roger E.A. Farmer, 2010. "Animal Spirits, Persistent Unemployment and the Belief Function," NBER Working Papers 16522, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Roger Farmer & Dmitry Plotnikov, 2012.
"Does Fiscal Policy Matter? Blinder and Solow Revisited,"
2012 Meeting Papers
73, Society for Economic Dynamics.
- Farmer, Roger E. A. & Plotnikov, Dmitry, 2012. "Does Fiscal Policy Matter? Blinder And Solow Revisited," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 16(S1), pages 149-166, April.
- Farmer, Roger E A & Plotnikov, Dmitry, 2011. "Does Fiscal Policy Matter? Blinder and Solow Revisited," CEPR Discussion Papers 8189, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Roger E.A. Farmer & Dmitry Plotnikov, 2010. "Does Fiscal Policy Matter? Blinder and Solow Revisited," NBER Working Papers 16644, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Jaume Ventura & Alberto Martín, 2003.
"Economic Growth with Bubbles,"
204, Barcelona Graduate School of Economics.
- Alberto Martin, 2010. "Economic Growth with Bubbles," 2010 Meeting Papers 788, Society for Economic Dynamics.
- Alberto Martin & Jaume Ventura, 2010. "Economic Growth with Bubbles," NBER Working Papers 15870, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Jaume Ventura and Alberto Martín, 2010. "Economic Growth with Bubbles," Working Papers 445, Barcelona Graduate School of Economics.
- Martin, Alberto & Ventura, Jaume, 2010. "Economic Growth with Bubbles," CEPR Discussion Papers 7770, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Alberto Martin & Jaume Ventura, 2003. "Economic growth with bubbles," Economics Working Papers 848, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Sep 2011.
- Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2009.
"This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly,"
Princeton University Press,
edition 1, number 8973, 06-2016.
- Roger E. A. Farmer, 1999. "Macroeconomics of Self-fulfilling Prophecies, 2nd Edition," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 2, volume 1, number 0262062038, March.
- Reinhart, Karmen & Rogoff, Kenneth, 2009. ""This time is different": panorama of eight centuries of financial crises," Economic Policy, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, vol. 1, pages 77-114, March.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:8439. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ()
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.