Animal Spirits, Financial Crises and Persistent Unemployment
This paper develops a rational expectations model with multiple equilibrium unemployment rates where the price of capital may be unbounded above. I argue that this property is an important feature of any rational-agent explanation of a financial crisis, since for the expansion phase of the crisis to be rational, investors must credibly believe that asset prices could keep increasing forever with positive probability. I explain the sudden crash in asset prices that precipitates a financial crisis as a large negative self-fulfilling shock to the expectation of the future price of capital. This shock causes a permanent reduction in wealth and consumption and a permanent increase in the unemployment rate. My work suggests that economic policies designed to reduce the volatility of asset market movements will significantly increase economic welfare.
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
|Date of creation:||Jun 2011|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Centre for Economic Policy Research, 77 Bastwick Street, London EC1V 3PZ.|
Phone: 44 - 20 - 7183 8801
Fax: 44 - 20 - 7183 8820
|Order Information:|| Email: |
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2009.
"Varieties of Crises and Their Dates,"
Introductory Chapters,in: This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly
Princeton University Press.
- Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2009. "This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, number 8973, 09-2014.
- Reinhart, Carmen, 2009. "The Second Great Contraction," MPRA Paper 21485, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Roger E.A. Farmer, 2010. "Animal Spirits, Persistent Unemployment and the Belief Function," NBER Working Papers 16522, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Farmer, Roger E A, 2010. "Animal Spirits, Persistent Unemployment and the Belief Function," CEPR Discussion Papers 8100, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Farmer, Roger E. A. & Plotnikov, Dmitry, 2012. "Does Fiscal Policy Matter? Blinder And Solow Revisited," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 16(S1), pages 149-166, April.
- Roger E.A. Farmer & Dmitry Plotnikov, 2010. "Does Fiscal Policy Matter? Blinder and Solow Revisited," NBER Working Papers 16644, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Roger Farmer & Dmitry Plotnikov, 2012. "Does Fiscal Policy Matter? Blinder and Solow Revisited," 2012 Meeting Papers 73, Society for Economic Dynamics.
- Farmer, Roger E A & Plotnikov, Dmitry, 2011. "Does Fiscal Policy Matter? Blinder and Solow Revisited," CEPR Discussion Papers 8189, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Alberto Martin & Jaume Ventura, 2012. "Economic Growth with Bubbles," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(6), pages 3033-3058, October.
- Alberto Martin & Jaume Ventura, 2003. "Economic growth with bubbles," Economics Working Papers 848, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Sep 2011.
- Martin, Alberto & Ventura, Jaume, 2010. "Economic Growth with Bubbles," CEPR Discussion Papers 7770, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Alberto Martin, 2010. "Economic Growth with Bubbles," 2010 Meeting Papers 788, Society for Economic Dynamics.
- Jaume Ventura and Alberto Martín, 2010. "Economic Growth with Bubbles," Working Papers 445, Barcelona Graduate School of Economics.
- Alberto Martin & Jaume Ventura, 2010. "Economic Growth with Bubbles," NBER Working Papers 15870, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Jaume Ventura & Alberto Martín, 2003. "Economic Growth with Bubbles," Working Papers 204, Barcelona Graduate School of Economics.
- Reinhart, Karmen & Rogoff, Kenneth, 2009. ""This time is different": panorama of eight centuries of financial crises," Economic Policy, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, vol. 1, pages 77-114, March.
- Roger E. A. Farmer, 1999. "Macroeconomics of Self-fulfilling Prophecies, 2nd Edition," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 2, volume 1, number 0262062038, July. Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)