Animal Spirits, Persistent Unemployment and the Belief Function
This paper presents a theory of the monetary transmission mechanism in a monetary version of Farmer's (2009) model in which there are multiple equilibrium unemployment rates. The model has two equations in common with the new-Keynesian model; the optimizing IS curve and the policy rule. It differs from the new-Keynesian model by replacing the Phillips curve with a belief function to determine expectations of nominal income growth. I estimate both models using U.S. data and I show that the Farmer monetary model fits the data better than its new-Keynesian competitor.
|Date of creation:||Nov 2010|
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|Publication status:||published as “Animal Spirits, Persistent Unemployment and the Belief Function”, Chapter 7, in Rethinking Expectations: The Way Forward for Macroeconomics , Roman Frydman and Edmund Phelps eds, Princet on University Press, 2013|
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- N. Gregory Mankiw & Ricardo Reis, 2001.
"Sticky Information Versus Sticky Prices: A Proposal to Replace the New Keynesian Phillips Curve,"
Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers
1922, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research.
- N. Gregory Mankiw & Ricardo Reis, 2001. "Sticky information versus sticky prices: a proposal to replace the New-Keynesian Phillips curve," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Jun.
- N. Gregory Mankiw & Ricardo Reis, 2002. "Sticky Information Versus Sticky Prices: A Proposal To Replace The New Keynesian Phillips Curve," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 117(4), pages 1295-1328, November.
- Mankiw, N. Gregory & Reis, Ricardo, 2002. "Sticky Information Versus Sticky Prices: A Proposal to Replace the New Keynesian Phillips Curve," Scholarly Articles 3415324, Harvard University Department of Economics.
- N. Gregory Mankiw & Ricardo Reis, 2001. "Sticky Information Versus Sticky Prices: A Proposal to Replace the New Keynesian Phillips Curve," NBER Working Papers 8290, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Roger E. A. Farmer, 1999. "Macroeconomics of Self-fulfilling Prophecies, 2nd Edition," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 2, volume 1, number 0262062038, June.
- Klenow, Peter J. & Malin, Benjamin A., 2010.
"Microeconomic Evidence on Price-Setting,"
Handbook of Monetary Economics,
in: Benjamin M. Friedman & Michael Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Monetary Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 6, pages 231-284
- Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2009. "This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 8973.
- Beyer, Andreas & Farmer, Roger E A, 2003.
"Identifying the Monetary Transmission Mechanism Using Structural Breaks,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
4106, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Beyer, Andreas & Farmer, Roger E. A., 2003. "Identifying the monetary transmission mechanism using structural breaks," Working Paper Series 0275, European Central Bank.
- John B. Taylor, 1999. "Monetary Policy Rules," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number tayl99-1, October.
- Leeper, Eric M., 1991. "Equilibria under 'active' and 'passive' monetary and fiscal policies," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 129-147, February.
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