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On the Sources of Business Cycles: Implications for DSGE Models

Author

Listed:
  • Michal Andrle
  • Jan Bruha
  • Serhat Solmaz

Abstract

What are the drivers of business cycle fluctuations? And how many are there? By documenting strong and predictable co-movement of real variables during the business cycle in a sample of advanced economies, we argue that most business cycle fluctuations are driven by one major factor. The positive co-movement of real output and inflation convincingly argues for a demand story. This feature-robust across time and space-provides a simple smell test for structural macroeconomic models. We propose a simple statistic that can compare data and models. Based on this statistic, we show that the recent vintage of structural economic models has difficulties replicating the stylized facts we document.

Suggested Citation

  • Michal Andrle & Jan Bruha & Serhat Solmaz, 2016. "On the Sources of Business Cycles: Implications for DSGE Models," Working Papers 2016/03, Czech National Bank, Research and Statistics Department.
    • Handle: RePEc:cnb:wpaper:2016/03
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    Cited by:

    1. Jan Bruha & Jiri Polansky, 2015. "Empirical Analysis of Labor Markets over Business Cycles: An International Comparison," Working Papers 2015/15, Czech National Bank, Research and Statistics Department.
    2. Ľubica Štiblárová, 2020. "Traditional and Alternative Business Cycle Dating Procedures: Evidence for the Euro Area and the Czech Economy," Acta Universitatis Agriculturae et Silviculturae Mendelianae Brunensis, Mendel University Press, vol. 68(1), pages 263-274.
    3. Molnárová, Zuzana & Reiter, Michael, 2022. "Technology, demand, and productivity: What an industry model tells us about business cycles," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
    4. Victor Olkhov, 2020. "Business Cycles as Collective Risk Fluctuations," Papers 2012.04506, arXiv.org.
    5. Houssa, Romain & Mohimont, Jolan & Otrok, Christopher, 2023. "Commodity exports, financial frictions, and international spillovers," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 158(C).
    6. Juan Laborda & Cristina Suárez, 2024. "Heterogeneity in household consumption behavior: The role of inequality and financial instability," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 34(1), pages 63-88, January.
    7. Omotosho, Babatunde S., 2019. "Business Cycle Fluctuations in Nigeria: Some Insights from an Estimated DSGE Model," MPRA Paper 98351, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Lansing, Kevin J., 2024. "Replicating business cycles and asset returns with sentiment and low risk aversion," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 167(C).
    9. Olkhov, Victor, 2018. "The Business Cycle Model Beyond General Equilibrium," MPRA Paper 87204, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Michal Andrle & Jan Bruha & Mr. Serhat Solmaz, 2016. "Output and Inflation Co-movement: An Update on Business-Cycle Stylized Facts," IMF Working Papers 2016/241, International Monetary Fund.

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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • C10 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - General
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E50 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - General

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