Cycles, Syllogisms and Semantics: Examining the Idea of Spurious Cycles
Author
Abstract
Suggested Citation
DOI: 10.1515/jtse-2012-0033
Download full text from publisher
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.
Other versions of this item:
- Stephen Pollock, 2014. "Cycles, Syllogisms and Semantics: Examining the Idea of Spurious Cycles," Discussion Papers in Economics 14/03, Division of Economics, School of Business, University of Leicester.
References listed on IDEAS
- Marianne Baxter & Robert G. King, 1999.
"Measuring Business Cycles: Approximate Band-Pass Filters For Economic Time Series,"
The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 81(4), pages 575-593, November.
- Marianne Baxter & Robert G. King, 1995. "Measuring Business Cycles Approximate Band-Pass Filters for Economic Time Series," NBER Working Papers 5022, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Tom Doan, "undated". "BKFILTER: RATS procedure to implement band pass filter using Baxter-King method," Statistical Software Components RTS00026, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Nelson, Charles R & Kang, Heejoon, 1981.
"Spurious Periodicity in Inappropriately Detrended Time Series,"
Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(3), pages 741-751, May.
- Nelson, Charles R. & Kang, Heejoon, 1979. "Spurious Periodicity In Inappropriately Detrended Time Series," Economic Research Papers 269059, University of Warwick - Department of Economics.
- Nelson, Charles R & Kang, Heejoon, 1979. "Spurious Periodicity in Inappropriately Detrended Time Series," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 161, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
- Nigar Hashimzade & Michael A. Thornton (ed.), 2013. "Handbook of Research Methods and Applications in Empirical Macroeconomics," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 14327.
- Lyubomir Ivanov, 2005. "Is "The ideal filter" really Ideal: The usage of Frequency Filtering and Spurious Cycles," South-Eastern Europe Journal of Economics, Association of Economic Universities of South and Eastern Europe and the Black Sea Region, vol. 3(1), pages 79-96.
- Simon Kuznets & Elizabeth Jenks, 1961. "Capital in the American Economy: Its Formation and Financing," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number kuzn61-1.
- Harvey, A C & Jaeger, A, 1993. "Detrending, Stylized Facts and the Business Cycle," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 8(3), pages 231-247, July-Sept.
- Simon Kuznets & Elizabeth Jenks, 1961. "Appendices and Index, "Capital in the American Economy: Its Formation and Financing"," NBER Chapters, in: Capital in the American Economy: Its Formation and Financing, pages 465-664, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Chan, K Hung & Hayya, Jack C & Ord, J Keith, 1977. "A Note on Trend Removal Methods: The Case of Polynomial Regression versus Variate Differencing," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 45(3), pages 737-744, April.
- King, Robert G. & Rebelo, Sergio T., 1993.
"Low frequency filtering and real business cycles,"
Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 17(1-2), pages 207-231.
- King, R.G. & Rebelo, S.T., 1989. "Low Frequency Filtering And Real Business Cycles," RCER Working Papers 205, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
- Burridge, Peter & Guerre, Emmanuel, 1996. "The Limit Distribution of level Crossings of a Random Walk, and a Simple Unit Root Test," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 12(4), pages 705-723, October.
- Cogley, Timothy & Nason, James M., 1995.
"Effects of the Hodrick-Prescott filter on trend and difference stationary time series Implications for business cycle research,"
Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 19(1-2), pages 253-278.
- Timothy Cogley & James M. Nason, 1993. "Effects of the Hodrick-Prescott filter on trend and difference stationary time series: implications for business cycle research," Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory 93-01, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
Citations
Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
Cited by:
- Spinola, Danilo, 2023.
"Instability constraints and development traps: an empirical analysis of growth cycles and economic volatility in Latin America,"
Revista CEPAL, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL), April.
- Sartorello Spinola, Danilo, 2018. "Instability constraints and development traps: An empirical analysis of growth cycles and economic volatility in Latin America," MERIT Working Papers 2018-002, United Nations University - Maastricht Economic and Social Research Institute on Innovation and Technology (MERIT).
- Michal Andrle & Jan Bruha & Serhat Solmaz, 2016.
"On the Sources of Business Cycles: Implications for DSGE Models,"
Working Papers
2016/03, Czech National Bank.
- Andrle, Michal & Brůha, Jan & Solmaz, Serhat, 2017. "On the sources of business cycles: implications for DSGE models," Working Paper Series 2058, European Central Bank.
- Kufenko, Vadim, 2016. "Spurious periodicities in cliometric series: Simultaneous testing," Violette Reihe: Schriftenreihe des Promotionsschwerpunkts "Globalisierung und Beschäftigung" 48/2016, University of Hohenheim, Carl von Ossietzky University Oldenburg, Evangelisches Studienwerk.
- D. Stephen G. Pollock, 2018. "Filters, Waves and Spectra," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 6(3), pages 1-33, July.
- Escañuela Romana, Ignacio, 2016. "Azar, Determinismo e Indecidibilidad en la Teoría del Ciclo Económico [Randomness, Determinism and Undecidability in the Business Cycle Theory]," MPRA Paper 72978, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Ignacio Escañuela ROMANA, 2016.
"Randomness, Determinism and Undecidability in the Economic Cycle Theory,"
Journal of Economics and Political Economy, KSP Journals, vol. 3(4), pages 638-658, December.
- Escañuela Romana, Ignacio, 2016. "Randomness, Determinism and Undecidability in the Economic cycle Theory," MPRA Paper 74646, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- D.S.G. Pollock, "undated". "Filters, Waves and Spectra," Discussion Papers in Economics 19/08, Division of Economics, School of Business, University of Leicester.
- Michal Andrle & Jan Bruha & Mr. Serhat Solmaz, 2016. "Output and Inflation Co-movement: An Update on Business-Cycle Stylized Facts," IMF Working Papers 2016/241, International Monetary Fund.
- Lisa Sella & Gianna Vivaldo & Andreas Groth & Michael Ghil, 2016. "Economic Cycles and Their Synchronization: A Comparison of Cyclic Modes in Three European Countries," Journal of Business Cycle Research, Springer;Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET), vol. 12(1), pages 25-48, September.
Most related items
These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.- José Luis Cendejas & Félix-Fernando Muñoz & Nadia Fernández-de-Pinedo, 2017.
"A contribution to the analysis of historical economic fluctuations (1870–2010): filtering, spurious cycles, and unobserved component modeling,"
Cliometrica, Springer;Cliometric Society (Association Francaise de Cliométrie), vol. 11(1), pages 93-125, January.
- Cendejas Bueno, José Luis & Muñoz, Félix & Fernández-de-Pinedo, Nadia, 2015. "A contribution to the analysis of historical economic fluctuations (1870-2010): filtering, spurious cycles and unobserved component modelling," Working Papers in Economic Theory 2015/04, Universidad Autónoma de Madrid (Spain), Department of Economic Analysis (Economic Theory and Economic History).
- Pedersen, Torben Mark, 2001. "The Hodrick-Prescott filter, the Slutzky effect, and the distortionary effect of filters," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 25(8), pages 1081-1101, August.
- Woitek, Ulrich, 2003.
"Height cycles in the 18th and 19th centuries,"
Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 1(2), pages 243-257, June.
- Ulrich Woitek, 1998. "Height Cycles in the 18th and 19th Centuries," Working Papers 9811, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
- Aadland, David, 2005.
"Detrending time-aggregated data,"
Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 89(3), pages 287-293, December.
- David Aadland, 2002. "Detrending Time-Aggregated Data," Working Papers 2002-05, Utah State University, Department of Economics.
- David Aadland, 2002. "Detrending Time-Aggregated Data," Macroeconomics 0301007, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- David Aadland, 2002. "Detrending Time-Aggregated Data," Microeconomics 0211015, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Melina Dritsaki & Chaido Dritsaki, 2022. "Comparison of HP Filter and the Hamilton’s Regression," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 10(8), pages 1-18, April.
- Cogley, Timothy & Nason, James M., 1995.
"Effects of the Hodrick-Prescott filter on trend and difference stationary time series Implications for business cycle research,"
Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 19(1-2), pages 253-278.
- Timothy Cogley & James M. Nason, 1993. "Effects of the Hodrick-Prescott filter on trend and difference stationary time series: implications for business cycle research," Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory 93-01, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
- Robert J. Hodrick, 2020. "An Exploration of Trend-Cycle Decomposition Methodologies in Simulated Data," NBER Working Papers 26750, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Alain Guay & Pierre Saint-Amant, 2005.
"Do the Hodrick-Prescott and Baxter-King Filters Provide a Good Approximation of Business Cycles?,"
Annals of Economics and Statistics, GENES, issue 77, pages 133-155.
- Alain Guay & Pierre St-Amant, 1997. "Do the Hodrick-Prescott and Baxter-King Filters Provide a Good Approximation of Business Cycles?," Cahiers de recherche CREFE / CREFE Working Papers 53, CREFE, Université du Québec à Montréal.
- Mark Meyer & Peter Winker*, 2005.
"Using HP Filtered Data for Econometric Analysis: Some Evidence from Monte Carlo Simulations,"
AStA Advances in Statistical Analysis, Springer;German Statistical Society, vol. 89(3), pages 303-320, August.
- Winker, Peter & Meyer, Mark, 2004. "Using HP Filtered Data for Econometric Analysis : Some Evidence from Monte Carlo Simulations," Discussion Papers 2004,001E, University of Erfurt, Faculty of Economics, Law and Social Sciences.
- Kozicki, Sharon, 1999.
"Multivariate detrending under common trend restrictions: Implications for business cycle research,"
Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 23(7), pages 997-1028, June.
- Sharon Kozicki, 1996. "Multivariate detrending under common trend restrictions: implications for business cycle research," Research Working Paper 96-01, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
- João Valle e Azevedo, 2002. "Business Cycles: Cyclical Comovement Within the European Union in the Period 1960-1999. A Frequency Domain Approach," Working Papers w200205, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
- Alain Guay & Pierre St-Amant, 1996.
"Do Mechanical Filters Provide a Good Approximation of Business Cycles?,"
Technical Reports
78, Bank of Canada.
- Guay, A & St-Amant, P, 1996. "Do Mechanical Filters Provide a Good Approximation of Business Cycles?," Working Papers-Department of Finance Canada 1996-2, Department of Finance Canada.
- Victor M. Guerrero, 2008. "Estimating Trends with Percentage of Smoothness Chosen by the User," International Statistical Review, International Statistical Institute, vol. 76(2), pages 187-202, August.
- Viv B. Hall & Peter Thomson, 2022.
"A boosted HP filter for business cycle analysis:evidence from New Zealand's small open economy,"
CAMA Working Papers
2022-45, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
- Hall, Viv B & Thomson, Peter, 2022. "A boosted HP filter for business cycle analysis: evidence from New Zealand’s small open economy," Working Paper Series 21184, Victoria University of Wellington, School of Economics and Finance.
- Schüler, Yves S., 2018. "On the cyclical properties of Hamilton's regression filter," Discussion Papers 03/2018, Deutsche Bundesbank.
- Maravall, A. & del Rio, A., 2007.
"Temporal aggregation, systematic sampling, and the Hodrick-Prescott filter,"
Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 52(2), pages 975-998, October.
- Agustín Maravall & Ana del Río, 2007. "Temporal aggregation, systematic sampling, and the Hodrick-Prescott filter," Working Papers 0728, Banco de España.
- Klaus Reiner Schenk-Hopp�, "undated". "Economic Growth and Business Cycles: A Critical Comment on Detrending Time Series (Revised Version)," IEW - Working Papers 054, Institute for Empirical Research in Economics - University of Zurich.
- Hall, Viv B & Thomson, Peter, 2022. "A boosted HP filter for business cycle analysis: evidence from New Zealand’s small open economy," Working Paper Series 9473, Victoria University of Wellington, School of Economics and Finance.
- Günes Kamber & James Morley & Benjamin Wong, 2018.
"Intuitive and Reliable Estimates of the Output Gap from a Beveridge-Nelson Filter,"
The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 100(3), pages 550-566, July.
- Güneş Kamber & James Morley & Benjamin Wong, 2016. "Intuitive and reliable estimates of the output gap from a Beveridge-Nelson filter," BIS Working Papers 584, Bank for International Settlements.
- Gunes Kamber & James Morley & Benjamin Wong, 2017. "Intuitive and Reliable Estimates of the Output Gap from a Beveridge-Nelson Filter," Discussion Papers 2016-09A, School of Economics, The University of New South Wales.
- Güneş Kamber & James Morley & Benjamin Wong, 2017. "Intuitive and Reliable Estimates of the Output Gap from a Beveridge-Nelson Filter," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2017/01, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
- Gunes Kamber & James Morley & Benjamin Wong, 2017. "Intuitive and reliable estimates of the output gap from a Beveridge-Nelson Filter," CAMA Working Papers 2017-03, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
- Gunes Kamber & James Morley & Benjamin Wong, 2016. "Intuitive and Reliable Estimates of the Output Gap from a Beveridge-Nelson Filter," Discussion Papers 2016-09, School of Economics, The University of New South Wales.
- Kaiser, Regina & Maravall, Agustin, 2005.
"Combining filter design with model-based filtering (with an application to business-cycle estimation),"
International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 21(4), pages 691-710.
- Regina Kaiser & Agustín Maravall, 2004. "Combining filter design with model based filtering (with an application to business cycle estimation)," Working Papers 0417, Banco de España.
More about this item
Keywords
business cycles; linear filters; spurious fluctuations; 62M15; 93E11; 91B84;All these keywords.
JEL classification:
- C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
- E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
Statistics
Access and download statisticsCorrections
All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bpj:jtsmet:v:6:y:2013:i:1:p:81-102:n:2. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Peter Golla (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.degruyter.com .
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.