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Cycles, Syllogisms and Semantics: Examining the Idea of Spurious Cycles

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  • Stephen Pollock

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Abstract

The claim that linear filters are liable to induce spurious fluctuations has been repeated many times of late. However, there are good reasons for asserting that this cannot be the case for the filters that, nowadays, are commonly employed by econometricians. If these filters cannot have the effects that have been attributed to them, then one must ask what effects the filters do have that could have led to the aspersions that have been made against them.

Suggested Citation

  • Stephen Pollock, 2014. "Cycles, Syllogisms and Semantics: Examining the Idea of Spurious Cycles," Discussion Papers in Economics 14/03, Division of Economics, School of Business, University of Leicester.
  • Handle: RePEc:lec:leecon:14/03
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    File URL: https://www.le.ac.uk/economics/research/RePEc/lec/leecon/dp14-03.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Marianne Baxter & Robert G. King, 1999. "Measuring Business Cycles: Approximate Band-Pass Filters For Economic Time Series," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 81(4), pages 575-593, November.
    2. Harvey, A C & Jaeger, A, 1993. "Detrending, Stylized Facts and the Business Cycle," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 8(3), pages 231-247, July-Sept.
    3. Chan, K Hung & Hayya, Jack C & Ord, J Keith, 1977. "A Note on Trend Removal Methods: The Case of Polynomial Regression versus Variate Differencing," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 45(3), pages 737-744, April.
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    Cited by:

    1. Michal Andrle & Jan Bruha & Serhat Solmaz, 2016. "On the Sources of Business Cycles: Implications for DSGE Models," Working Papers 2016/03, Czech National Bank.
    2. repec:gam:jecnmx:v:6:y:2018:i:3:p:35-:d:160445 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Escañuela Romana, Ignacio, 2016. "Azar, Determinismo e Indecidibilidad en la Teoría del Ciclo Económico
      [Randomness, Determinism and Undecidability in the Business Cycle Theory]
      ," MPRA Paper 72978, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Ignacio Escañuela ROMANA, 2016. "Randomness, Determinism and Undecidability in the Economic Cycle Theory," Journal of Economics and Political Economy, KSP Journals, vol. 3(4), pages 638-658, December.
    5. Sartorello Spinola, Danilo, 2018. "Instability constraints and development traps: An empirical analysis of growth cycles and economic volatility in Latin America," MERIT Working Papers 002, United Nations University - Maastricht Economic and Social Research Institute on Innovation and Technology (MERIT).
    6. Michal Andrle & Jan Bruha & Serhat Solmaz, 2016. "Output and Inflation Co-movement; An Update on Business-Cycle Stylized Facts," IMF Working Papers 16/241, International Monetary Fund.
    7. repec:spr:jbuscr:v:12:y:2016:i:1:d:10.1007_s41549-016-0003-4 is not listed on IDEAS

    More about this item

    Keywords

    business cycles; linear filters; spurious fluctuations;

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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