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On the sources of business cycles: implications for DSGE models

Author

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  • Andrle, Michal
  • Brůha, Jan
  • Solmaz, Serhat

Abstract

What are the drivers of business cycle fluctuations? And how many are there? By documenting strong and predictable co-movement of real variables during the business cycle in a sample of advanced economies, we argue that most business cycle fluctuations are driven by one major factor. The positive co-movement of real output and inflation convincingly argues for a demand story. This feature—robust across time and space—provides a simple smell test for structural macroeconomic models. We propose a simple statistic that can compare data and models. Based on this statistic, we show that the recent vintage of structural economic models has difficulties replicating the stylized facts we document. JEL Classification: C10, E32, E50

Suggested Citation

  • Andrle, Michal & Brůha, Jan & Solmaz, Serhat, 2017. "On the sources of business cycles: implications for DSGE models," Working Paper Series 2058, European Central Bank.
  • Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20172058
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Justiniano, Alejandro & Primiceri, Giorgio E. & Tambalotti, Andrea, 2010. "Investment shocks and business cycles," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(2), pages 132-145, March.
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    6. Faust, Jon & Gupta, Abhishek, 2010. "Posterior Predictive Analysis for Evaluating DSGE Models," MPRA Paper 26721, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Wieland, Volker & Cwik, Tobias & Müller, Gernot J. & Schmidt, Sebastian & Wolters, Maik, 2012. "A new comparative approach to macroeconomic modeling and policy analysis," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 83(3), pages 523-541.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Olkhov, Victor, 2018. "The Business Cycle Model Beyond General Equilibrium," MPRA Paper 87204, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Michal Andrle & Jan Bruha & Serhat Solmaz, 2016. "Output and Inflation Co-movement; An Update on Business-Cycle Stylized Facts," IMF Working Papers 16/241, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Jan Bruha & Jiri Polansky, 2015. "Empirical Analysis of Labor Markets over Business Cycles: An International Comparison," Working Papers 2015/15, Czech National Bank.
    4. Omotosho, Babatunde S., 2019. "Business Cycle Fluctuations in Nigeria: Some Insights from an Estimated DSGE Model," MPRA Paper 98351, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    business cycle; demand shocks; DSGE models; dynamic principal component analysis;

    JEL classification:

    • C10 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - General
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E50 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - General

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