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Inflation and Output Comovement in the Euro Area: Love at Second Sight?

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  • Michal Andrle
  • Jan Bruha
  • Mr. Serhat Solmaz

Abstract

This paper discusses comovement between inflation and output in the euro area. The strength of the comovement may not be apparent at first sight, but is clear at business cycle frequencies. Our results suggest that at business cycle frequency, the output and core inflation comovement is high and stable, and that inflation lags the cycle in output with roughly half of its variance. The strong relationship of output and inflation hints at the importance of demand shocks for the euro area business cycle.

Suggested Citation

  • Michal Andrle & Jan Bruha & Mr. Serhat Solmaz, 2013. "Inflation and Output Comovement in the Euro Area: Love at Second Sight?," IMF Working Papers 2013/192, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2013/192
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    Cited by:

    1. Elena Deryugina & Alexey Ponomarenko & Andrey Sinyakov & Constantine Sorokin, 2018. "Evaluating underlying inflation measures for Russia," Macroeconomics and Finance in Emerging Market Economies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(2), pages 124-145, May.
    2. Laurence Ball & Sandeep Mazumder, 2021. "A Phillips curve for the euro area," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(1), pages 2-17, April.
    3. Lafourcade, Pierre & Gerali, Andrea & Brůha, Jan & Bursian, Dirk & Buss, Ginters & Corbo, Vesna & Haavio, Markus & Håkanson, Christina & Hlédik, Tibor & Kátay, Gábor & Kulikov, Dmitry & Lozej, Matija , 2016. "Labour market modelling in the light of the financial crisis," Occasional Paper Series 175, European Central Bank.
    4. Olivier Blanchard & Eugenio Cerutti & Lawrence Summers, 2015. "Inflation and Activity – Two Explorations and their Monetary Policy Implications," NBER Working Papers 21726, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Michal Andrle & Jan Bruha & Serhat Solmaz, 2016. "On the Sources of Business Cycles: Implications for DSGE Models," Working Papers 2016/03, Czech National Bank.
    6. Jan Bruha & Jaromir Tonner, 2018. "An Exchange Rate Floor as an Instrument of Monetary Policy: An Ex-Post Assessment of the Czech Experience," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 68(6), pages 537-549, December.
    7. Dilara Sülün, 2020. "The Impact of Covid-19 on France’s Economy with an Overview on The European Economy," Journal of Research in Economics, Politics & Finance, Ersan ERSOY, vol. 5(SI), pages 115-136.
    8. Dilara Sülün, 2021. "The Impact of Covid-19 on France’s Economy with an Overview on The European Economy," Journal of Research in Economics, Politics & Finance, Ersan ERSOY, vol. 5(SI), pages 115-136.
    9. Bozena Kaderabkova & Emilie Jasova & Robert Holman, 2020. "Analysis of substitution changes in the Phillips curve in V4 countries over the course of economic cycles," International Journal of Economic Sciences, International Institute of Social and Economic Sciences, vol. 9(2), pages 39-54, December.
    10. Bo?ena Kade?ábková & Emilie Ja?ová, 2021. "How the Czech government got the pandemic wrong," Proceedings of Economics and Finance Conferences 12513377, International Institute of Social and Economic Sciences.
    11. Bo?ena Kade?ábková & Emilie Ja?ová, 0000. "Phillips curve during the economic cycle in the Czech Republic and Poland in the years 2000 to 2016," Proceedings of Economics and Finance Conferences 11413218, International Institute of Social and Economic Sciences.
    12. Mazumder, Sandeep, 2018. "Inflation in Europe after the Great Recession," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 202-213.
    13. Patrick Blagrave, 2020. "Inflation co-movement in emerging and developing Asia: the monsoon effect," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 27(15), pages 1277-1283, September.
    14. Oxana Babecka Kucharcukova & Jan Bruha & Petr Kral & Martin Motl & Jaromir Tonner, 2022. "Assessment of the Nature of the Pandemic Shock: Implications for Monetary Policy," Research and Policy Notes 2022/01, Czech National Bank.
    15. Tomas Adam & Robert Ambrisko & Oxana Babecka Kucharcukova & Jan Babecky & Sona Benecka & Jan Bruha & Vilma Dingova & Dana Hajkova & Tomas Holub & Eva Hromadkova & David Kocourek & Lubos Komarek & Zlat, 2014. "Analyses of the Czech Republic's Current Economic Alignment with the Euro Area 2014," Occasional Publications - Edited Volumes, Czech National Bank, number as14 edited by Kamila Kulhava & Jakub Mateju, January.
    16. repec:zbw:bofitp:2015_024 is not listed on IDEAS
    17. Bańbura, Marta & Bobeica, Elena, 2020. "PCCI – a data-rich measure of underlying inflation in the euro area," Statistics Paper Series 38, European Central Bank.
    18. Juan Carlos Berganza & Pedro del Río & Fructuoso Borrallo, 2016. "Determinants and implications of low global inflation rates," Occasional Papers 1608, Banco de España.
    19. Michal Andrle & Jan Bruha & Mr. Serhat Solmaz, 2016. "Output and Inflation Co-movement: An Update on Business-Cycle Stylized Facts," IMF Working Papers 2016/241, International Monetary Fund.
    20. Baxa Jaromír & Plašil Miroslav & Vašíček Bořek, 2017. "Inflation and the steeplechase between economic activity variables: evidence for G7 countries," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 17(1), pages 1-42, January.
    21. Elena Deryugina & Alexey Ponomarenko & Andrey Sinyakov & Constantine Sorokin, 2018. "Evaluating underlying inflation measures for Russia," Macroeconomics and Finance in Emerging Market Economies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(2), pages 124-145, May.
    22. Jan Bruha & Jiri Polansky, 2015. "Empirical Analysis of Labor Markets over Business Cycles: An International Comparison," Working Papers 2015/15, Czech National Bank.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    WP; inflation measure; output cycle; underlying inflation; inflation dynamics; inflation-output Comovement; business cycle; demand shocks; trimmed mean; output-inflation comovement; CPI-t inflation; Inflation; Business cycles; Inflation targeting; Consumer price indexes; Europe;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C10 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - General
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E50 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - General

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