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An Exchange Rate Floor as an Instrument of Monetary Policy: An Ex-Post Assessment of the Czech Experience

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  • Jan Bruha

    (Czech National Bank, Prague, Czech Republic)

  • Jaromir Tonner

    (Czech National Bank, Prague, Czech Republic)

Abstract

In November 2013 the Czech National Bank introduced a floor for the Czech koruna exchange rate as its monetary policy instrument. The rationale for this action was to prevent the risk of deflation in a zero-lower-bound environment where policy rates could not be lowered any further. The goal of this paper is to assess ex post the effect of the exchange rate floor on the Czech economy – inflation and the main real aggregates. The paper uses two different approaches. First, the official DSGE forecasting model is used to simulate the counterfactual macroeconomic dynamics of no introduction of a floor. Second, the paper applies an empirical approach: the synthetic control method and its generalised variant are used to estimate these counterfactual trajectories. Both approaches show that the floor prevented inflation from turning negative. Moreover, both methods indicate likely positive effects on macro variables and on various measures of inflation, although strongly statistically significant effects are only obtained for core inflation. The statistical significance for other variables is weaker or zero. We conclude that the introduction of the exchange rate floor was a correct policy action that has retrospectively been successful.

Suggested Citation

  • Jan Bruha & Jaromir Tonner, 2018. "An Exchange Rate Floor as an Instrument of Monetary Policy: An Ex-Post Assessment of the Czech Experience," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 68(6), pages 537-549, December.
  • Handle: RePEc:fau:fauart:v:68:y:2018:i:6:p:537-549
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    14. Michal Franta & Tomas Holub & Branislav Saxa, 2018. "Balance Sheet Implications of the Czech National Bank's Exchange Rate Commitment," Working Papers 2018/10, Czech National Bank.
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    Cited by:

    1. Jan Bruha & Jaromir Tonner, 2018. "Independent Monetary Policy Versus a Common Currency: A Macroeconomic Analysis for the Czech Republic Through the Lens of an Applied DSGE Model," Working Papers 2018/19, Czech National Bank.
    2. Dominika Kolcunova & Tomas Havranek, 2018. "Estimating the Effective Lower Bound on the Czech National Bank’s Policy Rate," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 68(6), pages 550-577, December.
    3. Francesca Caselli, 2017. "Did the Exchange Rate Floor Prevent Deflation in the Czech Republic?," Review of Economics and Institutions, Università di Perugia, vol. 8(2).
    4. Jan Bruha & Jaromir Tonner, 2018. "An Exchange Rate Floor as an Instrument of Monetary Policy: An Ex-Post Assessment of the Czech Experience," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 68(6), pages 537-549, December.
    5. Pavel Potužák, 2018. "Stimuluje spotřebu v situaci nulové nominální úrokové míry zvýšení inflačních očekávání? [Does an Increase in Inflation Expectations Stimulate Consumption at the Zero Lower Bound?]," Politická ekonomie, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2018(6), pages 751-775.
    6. Katerina Arnostova & Tomas Adam & Oxana Babecka Kucharcukova & Jan Babecky & Vojtech Belling & Sona Benecka & Jan Bruha & Martin Gurtler & Tibor Hledik & Tomas Holub & Eva Hromadkova & Lubos Komarek &, 2017. "Analyses of the Czech Republic's Current Economic Alignment with the Euro Area 2017," Occasional Publications - Edited Volumes, Czech National Bank, number as17 edited by Katerina Arnostova & Lucie Matejkova, March.
    7. Dąbrowski, Marek A. & Janus, Jakub, 2021. "Does the interest parity puzzle hold for Central and Eastern European economies?," MPRA Paper 107558, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. David Svacina, 2018. "Devaluation with Exchange rate Floor in a Small Open Economy," Working Papers IES 2018/06, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, revised Feb 2018.
    9. Vesna Martin, 2018. "The Exchange Rate Commitment As Additional Instrument Of Monetary Policy In Czech Republic, Switzerland And Israel," Ekonomske ideje i praksa, Faculty of Economics, University of Belgrade, issue 31, pages 41-57, December.
    10. Ortega, Eva & Osbat, Chiara, 2020. "Exchange rate pass-through in the euro area and EU countries," Occasional Paper Series 241, European Central Bank.
    11. Michal Franta & Tomas Holub & Branislav Saxa, 2018. "Balance Sheet Implications of the Czech National Bank's Exchange Rate Commitment," Working Papers 2018/10, Czech National Bank.
    12. Jan Frait & Marek Mora, 2020. "From float to currency floor and back to float: the Czech National Bank’s temporary exchange rate commitment," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Financial market development, monetary policy and financial stability in emerging market economies, volume 113, pages 121-131, Bank for International Settlements.
    13. Lukas Pfeifer & Martin Hodula & Libor Holub & Zdenek Pikhart, 2018. "The Leverage Ratio and Its Impact on Capital Regulation," Working Papers 2018/15, Czech National Bank.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    DSGE modelling; exchange rate policy; monetary policy in a zero-interest rate environment; synthetic control method;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C21 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Cross-Sectional Models; Spatial Models; Treatment Effect Models
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • F47 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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