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Estimating the Effective Lower Bound on the Czech National Bank's Policy Rate

Author

Listed:
  • Dominika Kolcunova
  • Tomas Havranek

Abstract

This paper focuses on the estimation of the effective lower bound on the Czech National Bank's policy rate. The effective lower bound is determined by the value below which holding and using cash would be preferable to holding deposits with negative yields. This bound is approximated on the basis of the storage, insurance and transport costs of cash and the loss of convenience associated with cashless payments. This estimate is complemented by a calculation based on interest charges reflecting the impact of negative rates on banks' profitability. Overall, we get a mean of slightly below -1%, approximately in the interval (-2.0%, -0.4%). In addition, by means of a vector autoregression we show that the potential of negative rates is not sufficient to deliver monetary policy easing similar in its effects to the impact of the Czech National Bank's exchange rate commitment during the years 2013-2017.

Suggested Citation

  • Dominika Kolcunova & Tomas Havranek, 2018. "Estimating the Effective Lower Bound on the Czech National Bank's Policy Rate," Working Papers 2018/9, Czech National Bank.
  • Handle: RePEc:cnb:wpaper:2018/9
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Costs of cash; effective lower bound; negative interest rates; transmission of monetary policy; zero lower bound;

    JEL classification:

    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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