IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/cpr/ceprdp/11433.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Negative Interest Rate Policies: Sources and Implications

Author

Listed:
  • Kose, M. Ayhan
  • Arteta, Carlos
  • Stocker, Marc
  • Taskin, Temel

Abstract

Against the background of continued growth disappointments, depressed inflation expectations, and declining real equilibrium interest rates, a number of central banks have implemented negative interest rate policies (NIRP) to provide additional monetary policy stimulus over the past few years. This paper studies the sources and implications of NIRP. We report four main results. First, monetary transmission channels under NIRP are conceptually analogous to those under conventional monetary policy but NIRP present complications that could limit policy effectiveness. Second, since the introduction of NIRP, many of the key financial variables have evolved broadly as implied by the standard transmission channels. Third, NIRP could pose risks to financial stability, particularly if policy rates are substantially below zero or if NIRP are employed for a protracted period of time. Potential adverse consequences include the erosion of profitability of banks and other financial intermediaries, and excessive risk taking. However, there has so far been no significant evidence that financial stability has been compromised because of NIRP. Fourth, spillover implications of NIRP for emerging market and developing economies are mostly similar to those of other unconventional monetary policy measures. In sum, NIRP have a place in a policy maker’s toolkit but, given their domestic and global implications, these policies need to be handled with care to secure their benefits while mitigating risks.

Suggested Citation

  • Kose, M. Ayhan & Arteta, Carlos & Stocker, Marc & Taskin, Temel, 2016. "Negative Interest Rate Policies: Sources and Implications," CEPR Discussion Papers 11433, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:11433
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://cepr.org/publications/DP11433
    Download Restriction: CEPR Discussion Papers are free to download for our researchers, subscribers and members. If you fall into one of these categories but have trouble downloading our papers, please contact us at subscribers@cepr.org
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Yavuz ARSLAN & Temel TAŞKIN, 2014. "International Evidence on the Interaction between Cross-Border Capital Flows and Domestic Credit Growth," Iktisat Isletme ve Finans, Bilgesel Yayincilik, vol. 29(341), pages 37-56.
    2. Glick, Reuven & Leduc, Sylvain, 2012. "Central bank announcements of asset purchases and the impact on global financial and commodity markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(8), pages 2078-2101.
    3. Yavuz Arslan & Bulent Guler & Temel Taskin, 2015. "Joint Dynamics of House Prices and Foreclosures," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 47(S1), pages 133-169, March.
    4. Buiter, Willem H., 2009. "Negative nominal interest rates: Three ways to overcome the zero lower bound," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 213-238, December.
    5. Sharon Kozicki & Eric Santor & Lena Suchanek, 2011. "Unconventional Monetary Policy: The International Experience with Central Bank Asset Purchases," Bank of Canada Review, Bank of Canada, vol. 2011(Spring), pages 13-25.
    6. Willem H. Buiter & Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, 2003. "Overcoming the zero bound on nominal interest rates with negative interest on currency: gesell's solution," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 113(490), pages 723-746, October.
    7. Boivin, Jean & Kiley, Michael T. & Mishkin, Frederic S., 2010. "How Has the Monetary Transmission Mechanism Evolved Over Time?," Handbook of Monetary Economics, in: Benjamin M. Friedman & Michael Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Monetary Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 8, pages 369-422, Elsevier.
    8. Kenneth Rogoff, 2015. "Costs and Benefits to Phasing out Paper Currency," NBER Macroeconomics Annual, University of Chicago Press, vol. 29(1), pages 445-456.
    9. Holston, Kathryn & Laubach, Thomas & Williams, John C., 2017. "Measuring the natural rate of interest: International trends and determinants," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(S1), pages 59-75.
    10. Lukasz Rachel & Thomas Smith, 2015. "Secular Drivers of the Global Real Interest Rate," Discussion Papers 1605, Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM).
    11. Ruchir Agarwal & Miles Kimball, 2015. "Breaking Through the Zero Lower Bound," IMF Working Papers 2015/224, International Monetary Fund.
    12. Ben S. Bernanke & Mark Gertler, 1995. "Inside the Black Box: The Credit Channel of Monetary Policy Transmission," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 9(4), pages 27-48, Fall.
    13. Hesna Genay & Rich Podjasek, 2014. "What Is the Impact of a Low Interest Rate Environment on Bank Profitability?," Chicago Fed Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, issue Jul.
    14. John Baffes & M. Ayhan Kose & Franziska Ohnsorge & Marc Stocker, 2015. "The Great Plunge in Oil Prices: Causes, Consequences, and Policy Responses," Policy Research Notes (PRNs) 94725, The World Bank.
    15. Bernanke, Ben S. & Gertler, Mark & Gilchrist, Simon, 1999. "The financial accelerator in a quantitative business cycle framework," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 21, pages 1341-1393, Elsevier.
    16. Leonardo Gambacorta & Boris Hofmann & Gert Peersman, 2014. "The Effectiveness of Unconventional Monetary Policy at the Zero Lower Bound: A Cross‐Country Analysis," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 46(4), pages 615-642, June.
    17. Cecchetti, Stephen G, 1988. "The Case of the Negative Nominal Interest Rates: New Estimates of the Term Structure of Interest Rates during the Great Depression," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 96(6), pages 1111-1141, December.
    18. Buiter, Willem H., 2014. "The simple analytics of helicopter money: Why it works - always," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 8, pages 1-51.
    19. Carl E. Walsh, 2010. "Monetary Theory and Policy, Third Edition," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 3, volume 1, number 0262013770, December.
    20. Marcel Fratzscher & Marco Lo Duca & Roland Straub, 2018. "On the International Spillovers of US Quantitative Easing," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 128(608), pages 330-377, February.
    21. Ichiro Fukunaga & Naoya Kato & Junko Koeda, 2015. "Maturity Structure and Supply Factors in Japanese Government Bond Markets," Monetary and Economic Studies, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, vol. 33, pages 45-96, November.
    22. Lim, Jamus Jerome & Mohapatra, Sanket & Stocker, Marc, 2014. "Tinker, taper, QE, bye ? the effect of quantitative easing on financial flows to developing countries," Policy Research Working Paper Series 6820, The World Bank.
    23. Morten Linnemann Bech & Aytek Malkhozov, 2016. "How have central banks implemented negative policy rates?," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, March.
    24. Carlos Arteta & M. Ayhan Kose & Franziska Ohnsorge & Marc Stocke, 2015. "The Coming U.S. Interest Rate Tightening Cycle: Smooth Sailing or Stormy Waters?," Koç University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum Working Papers 1522, Koc University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum.
    25. Tatiana Didier & M. Ayhan Kose & Franziska Ohnsorge & Lei Sandy Ye1, 2015. "Slowdown in Emerging Markets: Rough Patch or Prolonged Weakness?," Policy Research Notes (PRNs) 101741, The World Bank.
    26. Cordelius Ilgmann & Martin Menner, 2011. "Negative nominal interest rates: history and current proposals," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 8(4), pages 383-405, December.
    27. G.M. Constantinides & M. Harris & R. M. Stulz (ed.), 2013. "Handbook of the Economics of Finance," Handbook of the Economics of Finance, Elsevier, volume 2, number 2-b.
    28. Andrew W. Lo, 2012. "Reading about the Financial Crisis: A Twenty-One-Book Review," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 50(1), pages 151-178, March.
    29. Weale, Martin & Wieladek, Tomasz, 2016. "What are the macroeconomic effects of asset purchases?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 81-93.
    30. G.M. Constantinides & M. Harris & R. M. Stulz (ed.), 2013. "Handbook of the Economics of Finance," Handbook of the Economics of Finance, Elsevier, volume 2, number 2-a.
    31. Gabriel Jiménez & Steven Ongena & José‐Luis Peydró & Jesús Saurina, 2014. "Hazardous Times for Monetary Policy: What Do Twenty‐Three Million Bank Loans Say About the Effects of Monetary Policy on Credit Risk‐Taking?," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 82(2), pages 463-505, March.
    32. Boris Hofmann & Ilhyock Shim & Hyun Song Shin, 2016. "Sovereign yields and the risk-taking channel of currency appreciation," BIS Working Papers 538, Bank for International Settlements.
    33. Ben S. Bernanke, 2015. "The Federal Reserve and the Financial Crisis," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, number 9928-2.
    34. Christiane Baumeister & Luca Benati, 2013. "Unconventional Monetary Policy and the Great Recession: Estimating the Macroeconomic Effects of a Spread Compression at the Zero Lower Bound," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 9(2), pages 165-212, June.
    35. Ahmed, Shaghil & Zlate, Andrei, 2014. "Capital flows to emerging market economies: A brave new world?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(PB), pages 221-248.
    36. Frederic S. Mishkin, 1995. "Symposium on the Monetary Transmission Mechanism," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 9(4), pages 3-10, Fall.
    37. Stijn Claessens & Nicholas S. Coleman & Michael S. Donnelly, 2016. "Low-for-Long Interest Rates and Net Interest Margins of Banks in Advanced Foreign Economies," IFDP Notes 2016-04-11-1, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    38. Lawrence H Summers, 2014. "U.S. Economic Prospects: Secular Stagnation, Hysteresis, and the Zero Lower Bound," Business Economics, Palgrave Macmillan;National Association for Business Economics, vol. 49(2), pages 65-73, April.
    39. Gieck, Jana, 2014. "Unconventional monetary policy in an open economy," Discussion Papers 41/2014, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    40. Georgios Georgiadis & Johannes Grab, 2015. "Global financial market impact of the announcement of the ECB's extended asset purchase programme," Globalization Institute Working Papers 232, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    41. International Monetary Fund, 2015. "Canada: Selected Issues," IMF Staff Country Reports 2015/023, International Monetary Fund.
    42. Joseph E. Gagnon, 2016. "Quantitative Easing: An Underappreciated Success," Policy Briefs PB16-4, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
    43. Jeffrey Moore & Sunwoo Nam & Myeongguk Suh & Alexander Tepper, 2013. "Estimating the impacts of U.S. LSAPs on emerging market economies’ local currency bond markets," Staff Reports 595, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    44. Mr. Selim A Elekdag & Mr. Yiqun Wu, 2011. "Rapid Credit Growth: Boon or Boom-Bust?," IMF Working Papers 2011/241, International Monetary Fund.
    45. Bank for International Settlements, 2013. "Asset encumbrance, financial reform and the demand for collateral assets," CGFS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 49, december.
    46. Narayana R. Kocherlakota, 2016. "Sluggish Inflation Expectations: A Markov Chain Analysis," NBER Working Papers 22009, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Stijn Claessens & M Ayhan Kose, 2018. "Frontiers of macrofinancial linkages," BIS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 95, July.
    2. Stijn Claessens & M Ayhan Kose, 2017. "Asset prices and macroeconomic outcomes: a survey," BIS Working Papers 676, Bank for International Settlements.
    3. Claudio Borio & Anna Zabai, 2018. "Unconventional monetary policies: a re-appraisal," Chapters, in: Peter Conti-Brown & Rosa M. Lastra (ed.), Research Handbook on Central Banking, chapter 20, pages 398-444, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    4. van Holle, Frederiek, 2017. "Essays in empirical finance and monetary policy," Other publications TiSEM 30d11a4b-7bc9-4c81-ad24-5, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    5. repec:bla:pacecr:v:23:y:2018:i:1:p:8-26 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. McQuade, Peter & Falagiarda, Matteo & Tirpák, Marcel, 2015. "Spillovers from the ECB's non-standard monetary policies on non-euro area EU countries: evidence from an event-study analysis," Working Paper Series 1869, European Central Bank.
    7. Albertazzi, Ugo & Barbiero, Francesca & Marqués-Ibáñez, David & Popov, Alexander & Rodriguez d’Acri, Costanza & Vlassopoulos, Thomas, 2020. "Monetary policy and bank stability: the analytical toolbox reviewed," Working Paper Series 2377, European Central Bank.
    8. Nasir, Muhammad Ali, 2021. "Zero Lower Bound and negative interest rates: Choices for monetary policy in the UK," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 43(1), pages 200-229.
    9. Stefano Neri & Giuseppe Ferrero, 2017. "Monetary policy in a low interest rate environment," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 392, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    10. Margaux MacDonald & Michał Ksawery Popiel, 2020. "Unconventional Monetary Policy in a Small Open Economy," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 31(5), pages 1061-1115, November.
    11. Bhattarai, Saroj & Chatterjee, Arpita & Park, Woong Yong, 2021. "Effects of US quantitative easing on emerging market economies," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 122(C).
    12. Maria Sole Pagliari, 2021. "Does one (unconventional) size fit all? Effects of the ECB's unconventional monetary policies on the euro area economies," Working papers 829, Banque de France.
    13. Gan‐Ochir Doojav & Davaasukh Damdinjav, 2023. "The macroeconomic effects of unconventional monetary policies in a commodity‐exporting economy: Evidence from Mongolia," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(4), pages 4627-4654, October.
    14. Borrallo Egea, Fructuoso & Hierro, Luis Ángel, 2019. "Transmission of monetary policy in the US and EU in times of expansion and crisis," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 41(4), pages 763-783.
    15. Punzi, Maria Teresa & Chantapacdepong, Pornpinun, 2017. "Spillover Effects of Unconventional Monetary Policy in Asia and the Pacific," ADBI Working Papers 630, Asian Development Bank Institute.
    16. Grahame Johnson & Sharon Kozicki & Romanos Priftis & Lena Suchanek & Jonathan Witmer & Jing Yang, 2020. "Implementation and Effectiveness of Extended Monetary Policy Tools: Lessons from the Literature," Discussion Papers 2020-16, Bank of Canada.
    17. Sameer Khatiwada, 2017. "Quantitative Easing by the Fed and International Capital Flows," IHEID Working Papers 02-2017, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies.
    18. Christian Pfister & Jean-Guillaume Sahuc, 2020. "Unconventional monetary policies: A stock-taking exercise," Revue d'économie politique, Dalloz, vol. 130(2), pages 137-169.
    19. Carrera, César & Ramírez-rondán, Nelson R., 2020. "Effects Of Us Quantitative Easing On Latin American Economies," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 24(8), pages 1989-2011, December.
    20. Can, Ufuk & Can, Zeynep Gizem & Bocuoglu, Mehmet Emin & Dogru, Muhammed Erkam, 2021. "The effectiveness of the post-Covid-19 recovery policies: Evidence from a simulated DSGE model for Turkey," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 694-708.
    21. John D. Burger & Francis E. Warnock & Veronica C. Warnock, 2018. "The Effects of U.S. Monetary Policy on Emerging Market Economies’ Sovereign and Corporate Bond Markets," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Enrique G. Mendoza & Ernesto Pastén & Diego Saravia (ed.),Monetary Policy and Global Spillovers: Mechanisms, Effects and Policy Measures, edition 1, volume 25, chapter 3, pages 049-095, Central Bank of Chile.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Unconventional monetary policy; Financial stability; Negative yields; Event study; Emerging markets; Developing countries; Quantitative easing;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • E60 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - General

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:11433. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.cepr.org .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.