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Negative Interest Rate Policies: Sources and Implications

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  • Arteta, Carlos
  • Kose, Ayhan
  • Stocker, Marc
  • Taskin, Temel

Abstract

Against the background of continued growth disappointments, depressed inflation expectations, and declining real equilibrium interest rates, a number of central banks have implemented negative interest rate policies (NIRP) to provide additional monetary policy stimulus over the past few years. This paper studies the sources and implications of NIRP. We report four main results. First, monetary transmission channels under NIRP are conceptually analogous to those under conventional monetary policy but NIRP present complications that could limit policy effectiveness. Second, since the introduction of NIRP, many of the key financial variables have evolved broadly as implied by the standard transmission channels. Third, NIRP could pose risks to financial stability, particularly if policy rates are substantially below zero or if NIRP are employed for a protracted period of time. Potential adverse consequences include the erosion of profitability of banks and other financial intermediaries, and excessive risk taking. However, there has so far been no significant evidence that financial stability has been compromised because of NIRP. Fourth, spillover implications of NIRP for emerging market and developing economies are mostly similar to those of other unconventional monetary policy measures. In sum, NIRP have a place in a policy maker's toolkit but, given their domestic and global implications, these policies need to be handled with care to secure their benefits while mitigating risks.

Suggested Citation

  • Arteta, Carlos & Kose, Ayhan & Stocker, Marc & Taskin, Temel, 2016. "Negative Interest Rate Policies: Sources and Implications," CEPR Discussion Papers 11433, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:11433
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    As found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
    1. Negative Nominal Interest Rates and Banking
      by Steve Cecchetti and Kim Schoenholtz in Money, Banking and Financial Markets on 2018-10-22 12:23:45

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    Cited by:

    1. Stijn Claessens & M Ayhan Kose, 2018. "Frontiers of macrofinancial linkages," BIS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 95.
    2. Balbás de la Corte, Alejandro & Laborda Herrero, Ricardo, 2017. "Interest Rate Future Quality Options and Negative Interest Rates," INDEM - Working Paper Business Economic Series 24859, Instituto para el Desarrollo Empresarial (INDEM).
    3. Gokhan Sahin Gunes & Sumru Oz, 2016. "Response of Turkish Financial Markets to Negative Interest Rate Announcements of the ECB," Koç University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum Working Papers 1614, Koc University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum.
    4. Thornton, John & di Tommaso, Caterina, 2018. "Unconventional monetary policy and the ‘currency wars’," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 250-254.
    5. Kose,Ayhan & Lakatos,Csilla & Ohnsorge,Franziska Lieselotte & Stocker,Marc, 2017. "The global role of the U.S. economy: linkages, policies and spillovers," Policy Research Working Paper Series 7962, The World Bank.
    6. Takayasu Ito, 2017. "Do monetary policy expectations influence transmission mechanism of Danish interbank market under the negative interest rate policy?," International Journal of Bonds and Derivatives, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 3(3), pages 223-234.
    7. M. de Sola Perea & M. Kasongo Kashama, 2017. "The negative interest rate policy in the euro area and the supply of bank loans," Economic Review, National Bank of Belgium, issue iii, pages 42-61, december.
    8. Rose, Andrew K, 2017. "Currency Wars? Unconventional Monetary Policy Does Not Stimulate Exports," CEPR Discussion Papers 11748, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    9. Ad Van Riet, 2017. "The ECB’s Fight against Low Inflation: On the Effects of Ultra-Low Interest Rates," International Journal of Financial Studies, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 5(2), pages 1-27, April.
    10. Molyneux, Philip & Reghezza, Alessio & Xie, Ru, 2019. "Bank margins and profits in a world of negative rates," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 107(C), pages 1-1.
    11. Stijn Claessens & M. Ayhan Kose, 2017. "Asset prices and macroeconomic outcomes: A survey," CAMA Working Papers 2017-76, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    12. Stefan Angrick & Naoko Nemoto, 2017. "Central banking below zero: the implementation of negative interest rates in Europe and Japan," Asia Europe Journal, Springer, vol. 15(4), pages 417-443, December.
    13. Zura Kakushadze & Willie Yu, 2019. "iCurrency?," Papers 1911.01272, arXiv.org, revised Nov 2019.
    14. Thornton, John & Vasilakis, Chrysovalantis, 2019. "Negative policy interest rates and exchange rate behavior: Further results," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 61-67.
    15. Christian A. Conrad, 2019. "The Effects on Investment Behavior of Zero Interest Rate Policy¡ªEvidence From a Roulette Experiment," Applied Economics and Finance, Redfame publishing, vol. 6(4), pages 18-27, July.
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    17. Lopez, Jose A. & Rose, Andrew K. & Spiegel, Mark M., 2020. "Why have negative nominal interest rates had such a small effect on bank performance? Cross country evidence," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 124(C).
    18. repec:bla:pacecr:v:23:y:2018:i:1:p:8-26 is not listed on IDEAS
    19. Angrick, Stefan & Nemoto, Naoko, 2017. "Central Banking below Zero: The Implementation of Negative Interest Rate Policies in Europe and Japan," ADBI Working Papers 740, Asian Development Bank Institute.
    20. Philip Molyneux & Alessio Reghezza & Ru Xie, 2018. "Bank Profits and Margins in a World of Negative Rates," Working Papers 18001, Bangor Business School, Prifysgol Bangor University (Cymru / Wales).
    21. Jens Eisenschmidt & Frank Smets, 2019. "Negative Interest Rates: Lessons from the Euro Area," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Álvaro Aguirre & Markus Brunnermeier & Diego Saravia (ed.), Monetary Policy and Financial Stability: Transmission Mechanisms and Policy Implications, edition 1, volume 26, chapter 2, pages 013-042, Central Bank of Chile.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    developing countries; emerging markets; event study; financial stability; negative yields; quantitative easing; bank profitability; Unconventional Monetary Policy;

    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • E60 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - General

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