The Coming U.S. Interest Rate Tightening Cycle: Smooth Sailing or Stormy Waters?
The U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) is expected to start raising policy interest rates in the near term and thus commence a tightening cycle for the first time in nearly a decade. The taper tantrum episode of May‐June 2013 is a reminder that even a long anticipated change in Fed policies can trigger substantial financial market volatility in Emerging and Frontier Market Economies (EFEs). This paper provides a comprehensive analysis of the potential implications of the Fed tightening cycle for EFEs. We report three major findings: First, since the tightening cycle will take place in the context of a robust U.S. economy, it could be associated with positive real spillovers to EFEs. Second, while the tightening cycle is expected to proceed smoothly, there are risks of a disorderly adjustment of market expectations. The sudden realization of these risks could lead to a significant decline in EFE capital flows. For example, a 100 basis point jump in U.S. long‐term yields could temporarily reduce aggregate capital flows to EFEs by up to 2.2 percentage point of their combined GDP. Third, in anticipation of the risks surrounding the tightening cycle, EFEs should prioritize monetary and fiscal policies that reduce vulnerabilities and implement structural policy measures that improve growth prospects.
|Date of creation:||Nov 2015|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Rumelifeneri Yolu, Sarıyer, 34450 İstanbul|
Web page: http://erf.ku.edu.tr
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Guillermo A. Calvo & Alejandro Izquierdo & Ernesto Talvi, 2006. "Sudden Stops and Phoenix Miracles in Emerging Markets," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(2), pages 405-410, May.
- Cardarelli, Roberto & Elekdag, Selim & Kose, M. Ayhan, 2010.
"Capital inflows: Macroeconomic implications and policy responses,"
Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 333-356, December.
- Selim Elekdag & Ayhan Kose & Roberto Cardarelli, 2009. "Capital Inflows; Macroeconomic Implications and Policy Responses," IMF Working Papers 09/40, International Monetary Fund.
- Bordo, Michael D. & Cavallo, Alberto F. & Meissner, Christopher M., 2010. "Sudden stops: Determinants and output effects in the first era of globalization, 1880-1913," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 91(2), pages 227-241, March.
- Michael D. Bordo & Alberto F. Cavallo & Christopher M. Meissner, 2007. "Sudden Stops: Determinants and Output Effects in the First Era of Globalization, 1880-1913," NBER Working Papers 13489, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Borio, Claudio & Zhu, Haibin, 2012. "Capital regulation, risk-taking and monetary policy: A missing link in the transmission mechanism?," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 8(4), pages 236-251.
- Claudio Borio & Haibin Zhu, 2008. "Capital regulation, risk-taking and monetary policy: a missing link in the transmission mechanism?," BIS Working Papers 268, Bank for International Settlements.
- Moritz Schularick & Alan M. Taylor, 2012. "Credit Booms Gone Bust: Monetary Policy, Leverage Cycles, and Financial Crises, 1870-2008," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(2), pages 1029-1061, April.
- Moritz Schularick & Alan M. Taylor, 2009. "Credit Booms Gone Bust: Monetary Policy, Leverage Cycles and Financial Crises, 1870-2008," NBER Working Papers 15512, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Schularick, Moritz & Taylor, Alan M., 2009. "Credit Booms Gone Bust: Monetary Policy, Leverage Cycles and Financial Crises, 1870-2008," CEPR Discussion Papers 7570, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Diebold, Francis X. & Yilmaz, Kamil, 2015. "Financial and Macroeconomic Connectedness: A Network Approach to Measurement and Monitoring," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199338306.
- Calderón, César & Kubota, Megumi, 2013. "Sudden stops: Are global and local investors alike?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(1), pages 122-142.
- Calderon, Cesar & Kubota, Megumi, 2011. "Sudden stops : are global and local investors alike ?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5569, The World Bank.
- Stephanie Aaronson & Tomaz Cajner & Bruce Fallick & Felix Galbis-Reig & Christopher Smith & William Wascher, 2014. "Labor Force Participation: Recent Developments and Future Prospects," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 45(2 (Fall)), pages 197-275.
- Aaronson, Stephanie & Cajner, Tomaz & Fallick, Bruce C. & Galbis-Reig, Felix & Smith, Christopher & Wascher, William L., 2014. "Labor Force Participation: Recent Developments and Future Prospects," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2014-64, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Aaronson, Stephanie & Cajner, Tomaz & Fallick, Bruce C. & Galbis-Reig, Felix & Smith, Christopher & Wascher, William L., 2014. "Labor Force Participation: Recent Developments and Future Prospects," Working Paper 1410, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
- Adrian, Tobias & Shin, Hyun Song, 2010. "Liquidity and leverage," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 418-437, July.
- Tobias Adrian & Hyun Song Shin, 2008. "Liquidity and leverage," Staff Reports 328, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
- Ahmed, Shaghil & Zlate, Andrei, 2014. "Capital flows to emerging market economies: A brave new world?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(PB), pages 221-248.
- Shaghil Ahmed & Andrei Zlate, 2013. "Capital flows to emerging market economies: a brave new world?," International Finance Discussion Papers 1081, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Santacreu, Ana Maria, 2015. "The Economic Fundamentals of Emerging Market Volatility," Economic Synopses, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue 2.
- Yanping Zhao & Jakob Haan & Bert Scholtens & Haizhen Yang, 2014. "Sudden Stops and Currency Crashes," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 22(4), pages 660-685, 09. Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)