IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/wsi/jicepx/v08y2017i01ns179399331750003x.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Recent Credit Surge in Historical Context

Author

Listed:
  • Franziska Ohnsorge

    () (Development Economics, Prospects Group, World Bank, 1818 H St., NW, Washington, DC 20433, USA)

  • Shu Yu

    () (Development Economics, Prospects Group, World Bank, 1818 H St., NW, Washington, DC 20433, USA)

Abstract

Benign financing conditions since the global financial crisis and, more recently, rising financing needs have fueled a rapid increase in credit to the nonfinancial private sector, especially to the corporate sector in emerging markets and developing economies (EMDEs). In this paper, we first compare post-crisis credit booms with pre-crisis episodes of credit booms and document some distinctive features of post-crisis credit booms. We find that, credit booms in commodity-importing EMDEs in the immediate wake of the global financial crisis have subsided since 2012 but have left a legacy of credit to the nonfinancial private sector that has been considerably higher than in previous credit booms. In contrast, since 2014, credit growth in several commodity-exporting EMDEs has been near the pace observed in past credit booms. We then benchmark current credit-to-gross domestic product (GDP) ratios against thresholds identified in the literature as early warning indicators. Most EMDEs are still some distance away from those thresholds. However, since recent credit booms have not been accompanied by investment surges/booms, GDP growth may contract more when credit booms unwind.

Suggested Citation

  • Franziska Ohnsorge & Shu Yu, 2017. "Recent Credit Surge in Historical Context," Journal of International Commerce, Economics and Policy (JICEP), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 8(01), pages 1-22, February.
  • Handle: RePEc:wsi:jicepx:v:08:y:2017:i:01:n:s179399331750003x
    DOI: 10.1142/S179399331750003X
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.worldscientific.com/doi/abs/10.1142/S179399331750003X
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Marco Arena & Serpil Bouza & Era Dabla-Norris & Kerstin Gerling & Lamin Njie, 2015. "Credit Booms and Macroeconomic Dynamics; Stylized Facts and Lessons for Low-Income Countries," IMF Working Papers 15/11, International Monetary Fund.
    2. Puspa D. Amri & Greg M. Richey & Thomas D. Willett, 2016. "Capital Surges and Credit Booms: How Tight is the Relationship?," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 27(4), pages 637-670, September.
    3. Ken Miyajima & Ilhyock Shim, 2014. "Asset managers in emerging market economies," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, September.
    4. Moritz Schularick & Alan M. Taylor, 2012. "Credit Booms Gone Bust: Monetary Policy, Leverage Cycles, and Financial Crises, 1870-2008," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(2), pages 1029-1061, April.
    5. Cetorelli, Nicola & Goldberg, Linda S., 2012. "Liquidity management of U.S. global banks: Internal capital markets in the great recession," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(2), pages 299-311.
    6. Elva Bova & Marta Ruiz-Arranz & Frederik G Toscani & H. Elif Ture, 2016. "The Fiscal Costs of Contingent Liabilities; A New Dataset," IMF Working Papers 16/14, International Monetary Fund.
    7. Claessens, Stijn & Kose, M. Ayhan & Terrones, Marco E., 2012. "How do business and financial cycles interact?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(1), pages 178-190.
    8. Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas & Maurice Obstfeld, 2012. "Stories of the Twentieth Century for the Twenty-First," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 4(1), pages 226-265, January.
    9. Ralph De Haas & Neeltje Van Horen, 2013. "Running for the Exit? International Bank Lending During a Financial Crisis," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 26(1), pages 244-285.
    10. Gian‐Maria Milesi‐Ferretti & Cédric Tille, 2011. "The great retrenchment: international capital flows during the global financial crisis," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 26(66), pages 285-342, April.
    11. Asli Demirgüç-Kunt & Enrica Detragiache, 2005. "Cross-Country Empirical Studies of Systemic Bank Distress: A Survey," National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, vol. 192(1), pages 68-83, April.
    12. Tobias Adrian & Paolo Colla & Hyun Song Shin, 2013. "Which Financial Frictions? Parsing the Evidence from the Financial Crisis of 2007 to 2009," NBER Macroeconomics Annual, University of Chicago Press, vol. 27(1), pages 159-214.
    13. Ralph Haas & Iman Lelyveld, 2014. "Multinational Banks and the Global Financial Crisis: Weathering the Perfect Storm?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 46(s1), pages 333-364, February.
    14. Carlos Arteta & M. Ayhan Kose & Franziska Ohnsorge & Marc Stocke, 2015. "The Coming U.S. Interest Rate Tightening Cycle: Smooth Sailing or Stormy Waters?," Koç University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum Working Papers 1522, Koc University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum.
    15. Michael Chui & Ingo Fender & Vladyslav Sushko, 2014. "Risks related to EME corporate balance sheets: the role of leverage and currency mismatch," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, September.
    16. Silvio Contessi & Li Li & Katheryn N. Russ, 2013. "Bank vs. bond financing over the business cycle," Economic Synopses, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    17. Mathias Drehmann, 2013. "Total credit as an early warning indicator for systemic banking crises," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, June.
    18. Robert Neil McCauley & Patrick McGuire & Vladyslav Sushko, 2015. "Dollar credit to emerging market economies," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Kose,Ayhan & Ohnsorge,Franziska Lieselotte & Ye,Lei Sandy & Islamaj,Ergys, 2017. "Weakness in investment growth : causes, implications and policy responses," Policy Research Working Paper Series 7990, The World Bank.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wsi:jicepx:v:08:y:2017:i:01:n:s179399331750003x. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Tai Tone Lim). General contact details of provider: http://www.worldscinet.com/jicep/jicep.shtml .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.