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Tinker, taper, QE, bye ? the effect of quantitative easing on financial flows to developing countries

Author

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  • Lim, Jamus Jerome
  • Mohapatra, Sanket
  • Stocker, Marc

Abstract

This paper examines gross financial inflows to developing countries between 2000 and 2013, with a particular focus on the potential effects of quantitative easing policies in the United States and other high-income countries. The paper finds evidence for potential transmission of quantitative easing along observable liquidity, portfolio balancing, and confidence channels. Moreover, quantitative easing had an additional effect over and above these observable channels, which the paper argues cannot be attributed to either market expectations or changes in the structural relationships between inflows and observable fundamentals. The baseline estimates place the lower bound of the effect of quantitative easing at around 5 percent of gross inflows (for the average developing economy), which suggests that of the 62 percent increase in inflows during 2009-13 related to changing global monetary conditions, at least 13 percent of this was attributable to quantitative easing. The paper also finds evidence of heterogeneity among different types of flows; portfolio (especially bond) flows tend to be more sensitive than foreign direct investment to our measured effects from quantitative easing. Finally, the paper performs simulations that explore the potential effects of the withdrawal of quantitative easing on financial flows to developing countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Lim, Jamus Jerome & Mohapatra, Sanket & Stocker, Marc, 2014. "Tinker, taper, QE, bye ? the effect of quantitative easing on financial flows to developing countries," Policy Research Working Paper Series 6820, The World Bank.
  • Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:6820
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Bauer, Michael D. & Neely, Christopher J., 2014. "International channels of the Fed's unconventional monetary policy," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 24-46.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Saroj Bhattarai & Arpita Chatterjee & Woong Yong Park, 2015. "Effects of US quantitative easing on emerging market economies," CAMA Working Papers 2015-47, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    2. MacDonald, Margaux, 2017. "International capital market frictions and spillovers from quantitative easing," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 135-156.
    3. Janus, Thorsten & Riera-Crichton, Daniel, 2016. "Banking crises, external crises and gross capital flows," Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute Working Paper 273, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    4. Kristina Bluwstein & Fabio Canova, 2016. "Beggar-Thy-Neighbor? The International Effects of ECB Unconventional Monetary Policy Measures," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 12(3), pages 69-120, September.
    5. Cyn Young Park & Kwanho Shin, 2018. "Global Banking Network and Regional Financial Contagion," Working Papers id:12803, eSocialSciences.
    6. World Bank, 2014. "Global Economic Prospects, Volume 8, January 2014 : Coping with Policy Normalization in High-Income Countries," World Bank Publications, The World Bank, number 16572, November.
    7. Tillman, Peter, 2016. "Uncertainty about Federal Reserve Policy and Its Transmission to Emerging Economies: Evidence from Twitter," ADBI Working Papers 592, Asian Development Bank Institute.
    8. Marek Lubiński, 2015. "Efekty ponadgraniczne niekonwencjonalnej polityki monetarnej," Gospodarka Narodowa, Warsaw School of Economics, issue 6, pages 5-28.
    9. Adugna Olani, 2016. "Dynamic Capital inflow transmission of monetary policy to emerging markets," Working Papers 1358, Queen's University, Department of Economics.
    10. Espinosa-Torres, Juan Andrés & Gomez-Gonzalez, Jose Eduardo & Melo-Velandia, Luis Fernando & Moreno-Gutiérrez, José Fernando, 2016. "The international transmission of risk: Causal relations among developed and emerging countries’ term premia," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 646-654.
    11. Joanne GUO, 2015. "Quantitative Easingand U.S. Financial Asset Returns," Journal of Economics Bibliography, KSP Journals, vol. 2(3), pages 76-105, September.
    12. Sameer Khatiwada, 2017. "Quantitative Easing by the Fed and International Capital Flows," IHEID Working Papers 02-2017, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies.
    13. Tillmann, Peter, 2016. "Unconventional monetary policy and the spillovers to emerging markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 136-156.
    14. MacDonald, Margaux, 2018. "International Capital Market Frictions and Spillovers from Quantitative Easing," Queen's Economics Department Working Papers 274672, Queen's University - Department of Economics.
    15. Anaya, Pablo & Hachula, Michael & Offermanns, Christian J., 2017. "Spillovers of U.S. unconventional monetary policy to emerging markets: The role of capital flows," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 73(PB), pages 275-295.
    16. Hernández Vega Marco A., 2017. "Portfolio Investment Response to U.S. Monetary Policy Announcements: An Event," Working Papers 2017-02, Banco de México.
    17. Burns, Andrew & Kida, Mizuho & Lim, Jamus Jerome & Mohapatra, Sanket & Stocker, Marc, 2014. "Unconventional monetary policy normalization in high-income countries : implications for emerging market capital flows and crisis risks," Policy Research Working Paper Series 6830, The World Bank.
    18. Annette Meinusch, 2017. "When the Fed sneezes - Spillovers from U.S. Monetary Policy to Emerging Markets," MAGKS Papers on Economics 201730, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Debt Markets; Emerging Markets; Economic Theory&Research; Currencies and Exchange Rates; Mutual Funds;

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