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Credit Booms, Financial Fragility and Banking Crises

Author

Listed:
  • David Fielding

    (Department of Economics, University of Otago, New Zealand)

  • Johan Rewilak

    (Department of Strategy, Marketing and Economics, University of Huddersfield, Queensgate, Huddersfield)

Abstract

Recent evidence indicates that surges in capital inflows and credit booms can increase the probability of a subsequent banking crisis. Using a new country-level panel database on financial fragility, we take this analysis further by exploring the interaction of surges, booms and fragility. We find that booms and fragility are both important, but booms increase the probability of a crisis only in financial systems with a relatively high level of fragility. Booms appear not to be dangerous in countries with a robust banking system.

Suggested Citation

  • David Fielding & Johan Rewilak, 2015. "Credit Booms, Financial Fragility and Banking Crises," Working Papers 1507, University of Otago, Department of Economics, revised Aug 2015.
    • Handle: RePEc:otg:wpaper:1507
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    File URL: http://www.otago.ac.nz/economics/otago120402.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Svetlana Andrianova & Badi Baltagi & Thorsten Beck & Panicos Demetriades & David Fielding & Stephen Hall & Steven Koch & Robert Lensink & Johan Rewilak & Peter Rousseau, 2015. "A New International Database on Financial Fragility," Discussion Papers in Economics 15/18, Division of Economics, School of Business, University of Leicester.
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    8. Moritz Schularick & Alan M. Taylor, 2012. "Credit Booms Gone Bust: Monetary Policy, Leverage Cycles, and Financial Crises, 1870-2008," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(2), pages 1029-1061, April.
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    2. Saktinil Roy & David M. Kemme, 2022. "Are capital inflow bonanzas a common precursor to banking crises? A categorical data analysis," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 45(10), pages 3192-3223, October.
    3. Christopher Gandrud & Mark Hallerberg, 2015. "What is a Financial Crisis? Efficiently Measuring Real-Time Perceptions of Financial Market Stress with an Application to Financial Crisis Budget Cycles," CESifo Working Paper Series 5632, CESifo.
    4. Bouvatier, Vincent & El Ouardi, Sofiane, 2023. "Credit gaps as banking crisis predictors: A different tune for middle- and low-income countries," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
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    7. Rachita Gulati & Nirmal Singh, 2019. "Analysing bank stability in India: Evidence from 2007/08-2016/17," Journal of Applied Finance & Banking, SCIENPRESS Ltd, vol. 9(6), pages 1-7.
    8. Demir, Müge & Önder, Zeynep, 2019. "Financial connectivity and excessive liquidity: Benefit or risk?," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 203-221.
    9. Casabianca, Elizabeth Jane & Catalano, Michele & Forni, Lorenzo & Giarda, Elena & Passeri, Simone, 2022. "A machine learning approach to rank the determinants of banking crises over time and across countries," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
    10. Mekki Hamdaoui & Saif Eddine Ayouni & Samir Maktouf, 2022. "Capital Account Liberalization, Political Stability, and Economic Growth," Journal of the Knowledge Economy, Springer;Portland International Center for Management of Engineering and Technology (PICMET), vol. 13(1), pages 723-772, March.
    11. Eze Simpson Osuagwu & Wakeel Atanda Isola & Isaac Chii Nwaogwugwu, 2018. "Measuring Technical Efficiency and Productivity Change in the Nigerian Banking Sector: A Comparison of Non‐parametric and Parametric Techniques," African Development Review, African Development Bank, vol. 30(4), pages 490-501, December.
    12. Osuagwu, Eze Simpson & Isola, Wakeel & Nwaogwugwu, Isaac, 2018. "Measuring Technical Efficiency and Productivity Change in the Nigerian Banking Sector: A Comparison of non-parametric DEA and parametric SFA," MPRA Paper 112948, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Mirjana Jemović & Srđan Marinković, 2021. "Determinants of financial crises—An early warning system based on panel logit regression," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(1), pages 103-117, January.
    14. Cantú, Carlos & Gondo, Rocio & Martínez, Berenice, 2019. "Reserve requirements as a financial stability instrument," Working Papers 2019-014, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú.
    15. Feghali, Khalil & Mora, Nada & Nassif, Pamela, 2021. "Financial inclusion, bank market structure, and financial stability: International evidence," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 236-257.
    16. Roy, Saktinil & Kemme, David M., 2020. "The run-up to the global financial crisis: A longer historical view of financial liberalization, capital inflows, and asset bubbles," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).
    17. Sule Yuksel Yigiter & Salim Sercan Sari, 2022. "Financial Fragility and Basic Economic Indicators in Turkey," Muhasebe Enstitusu Dergisi - Journal of Accounting Institute, Istanbul University Business School, vol. 0(67), pages 1-13, July.
    18. Sophia Dimelis & Ioannis Giotopoulos & Helen Louri, 2016. "What determines the growth of micro firms in the euro area?," Economics and Business Letters, Oviedo University Press, vol. 5(4), pages 145-151.
    19. Nirmal Singh, 2021. "Bank Stability and its Determinants in the Nepalese Banking Industry," NRB Economic Review, Nepal Rastra Bank, Economic Research Department, vol. 33(1-2), pages 14-44, October.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Panel data; Financial crises; Financial fragility; Credit booms; Capital surges;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises

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