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A Series of Unfortunate Events: Common Sequencing Patterns in Financial Crises

Author

Listed:
  • Carmen M. Reinhart

    () (Peterson Institute for International Economics, CEPR and NBER)

Abstract

We document that the global scope and depth of the crisis the began 2007 is unprecedented in the post World War II era and, as such, the most relevant comparison benchmark is the Great Depression of the 1930s. Some of the similarities are examined but the analysis of the aftermath of severe financial crises is also extended to the most severe post-WWII crises. We discriminate between root causes of the crises, recurring crises symptoms, and common features which serve as amplifiers of the boom-bust cycle. Recurring temporal patterns in the boom-bust cycle and their broad sequencing is analyzed.

Suggested Citation

  • Carmen M. Reinhart, 2011. "A Series of Unfortunate Events: Common Sequencing Patterns in Financial Crises," 'Angelo Costa' Lectures Serie, SIPI Spa, issue Lect. XII.
  • Handle: RePEc:rpo:leanco:2011
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2014. "This Time is Different: A Panoramic View of Eight Centuries of Financial Crises," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 15(2), pages 1065-1188, November.
    2. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2009. "Varieties of Crises and Their Dates," Introductory Chapters,in: This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly Princeton University Press.
    3. Michael D. Bordo & Marc Flandreau, 2003. "Core, Periphery, Exchange Rate Regimes, and Globalization," NBER Chapters,in: Globalization in Historical Perspective, pages 417-472 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Marc Flandreau & Juan H. Flores & Norbert Gaillard & Sebastián Nieto-Parra, 2010. "The End of Gatekeeping: Underwriters and the Quality of Sovereign Bond Markets, 1815-2007," NBER Chapters,in: NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2009, pages 53-92 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2011. "From Financial Crash to Debt Crisis," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(5), pages 1676-1706, August.
    6. Tamim Bayoumi, 1990. "Saving-Investment Correlations: Immobile Capital, Government Policy, or Endogenous Behavior?," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 37(2), pages 360-387, June.
    7. Diaz-Alejandro, Carlos, 1985. "Good-bye financial repression, hello financial crash," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(1-2), pages 1-24.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. A. Hakan Kara, 2012. "Monetary Policy in Turkey After the Global Crisis," Working Papers 1217, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
    2. repec:oup:cambje:v:41:y:2017:i:4:p:977-998. is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Sergio Cesaratto, 2014. "Balance of payments or monetary sovereignty? In search of the EMU’s original sin – a reply to Lavoie," a/ Working Papers Series 1406, Italian Association for the Study of Economic Asymmetries, Rome (Italy).
    4. Sergio Cesaratto, 2017. "Alternative interpretations of a stateless currency crisis," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 41(4), pages 977-998.
    5. A.Hakan KARA, 2012. "Küresel kriz sonrası para politikası," Iktisat Isletme ve Finans, Bilgesel Yayincilik, vol. 27(315), pages 09-36.
    6. Sergio Cesaratto, 2013. "The implications of TARGET2 in the European balance of payments crisis and beyond," European Journal of Economics and Economic Policies: Intervention, Edward Elgar Publishing, vol. 10(3), pages 359-382.
    7. Marek Belka & Jens Thomsen & Kim Abildgren & Pietro Catte & Pietro Cova & Patrizio Pagano & Ignazio Visco & Petar Chobanov & Amine Lahiani & Nikolay Nenovsky & Cristina Badarau & Grégory Levieuge & To, 2011. "Monetary Policy after the Crisis," SUERF Studies, SUERF - The European Money and Finance Forum, number 2011/3 edited by Ernest Gnan, & Ryszard Kokoszczynski & Tomasz Lyziak & Robert McCauley.
    8. Harald Uhlig, 2014. "Sovereign Default Risk and Banks in a Monetary Union," German Economic Review, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 15(1), pages 23-41, February.
    9. Ranat Eskinat, 2014. "New Monetary Policy Approach in Turkey Against Financial Systemic Risk," South-Eastern Europe Journal of Economics, Association of Economic Universities of South and Eastern Europe and the Black Sea Region, vol. 12(2), pages 201-214.
    10. A. Kara, 2013. "Monetary Policy after the Global Crisis," Atlantic Economic Journal, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 41(1), pages 51-74, March.
    11. Sergio Cesaratto, 2012. "Controversial and novel features of the Eurozone crisis as a balance of payment crisis," Department of Economics University of Siena 640, Department of Economics, University of Siena.
    12. Silvana Bartoletto & Bruno Chiarini & Elisabetta Marzano, 2012. "The Sustainability of Fiscal Policy in Italy: A Long-Term Perspective," CESifo Working Paper Series 3812, CESifo Group Munich.
    13. Sergio Cesaratto, 2017. "The nature of the eurocrisis. A reply to Febrero, Uxò and Bermejo," Department of Economics University of Siena 752, Department of Economics, University of Siena.
    14. Silvana Bartoletto & Bruno Chiarini & Elisabetta Marzano, 2013. "Is the Italian Public Debt Really Unsustainable? An Historical Comparison (1861-2010)," CESifo Working Paper Series 4185, CESifo Group Munich.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E6 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook
    • F3 - International Economics - - International Finance
    • N0 - Economic History - - General

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