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Alternative interpretations of a stateless currency crisis

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  • Sergio Cesaratto

Abstract

A number of economists warned that a political union was a prerequisite for a viable currency union. This paper disputes the feasibility of such a political union. A fully fledged federal union, which would likely please peripheral Europe, is impracticable since it implies a degree of fiscal solidarity that does not exist. A Hayekian minimal federal state, which would appeal to core Europe, would be refused by peripheral members, since residual fiscal sovereignty would be surrendered without any clear positive economic and social return. Even an intermediate solution based on coordinated Keynesian policies would be unfeasible, since it would be at odds with German ‘monetary mercantilism’. The euro area is thus trapped between equally unfeasible political perspectives. In this bleak context, austerity policies are mainly explained by the necessity to readdress the euro area balance-of-payments crisis. This crisis presents striking similarities to traditional financial crises in emerging economies associated with fixed exchange regimes. Therefore, the delayed response of the European Central Bank (ECB) to the sovereign debt crisis cannot be seen as the culprit of the euro area crisis. The ECB’s monetary refinancing mechanisms, Target 2 and the ECB’s belated Outright Monetary Transactions intervention impeded a blow-up of the currency union, but could not solve its deep causes. The current combination of austerity policies and moderate ECB intervention aims to rebalance intra-eurozone foreign accounts and to force competitive deflation strategy.

Suggested Citation

  • Sergio Cesaratto, 2017. "Alternative interpretations of a stateless currency crisis," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 41(4), pages 977-998.
  • Handle: RePEc:oup:cambje:v:41:y:2017:i:4:p:977-998.
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1093/cje/bew065
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    3. Karsten Kohler, 2022. "Capital Flows and the Eurozone's North-South Divide," Working Papers PKWP2211, Post Keynesian Economics Society (PKES).
    4. Sergio Cesaratto, 2016. "The modern revival of the Classical surplus approach: implications for the analysis of growth and crises," Department of Economics University of Siena 735, Department of Economics, University of Siena.
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    7. Walter Paternesi Meloni, 2017. "Austerity & Competitiveness in the Eurozone: a misleading linkage," Departmental Working Papers of Economics - University 'Roma Tre' 0223, Department of Economics - University Roma Tre.
    8. Balaga Mohana Rao & Puja Padhi, 2020. "Common Determinants of the Likelihood of Currency Crises in BRICS," Global Business Review, International Management Institute, vol. 21(3), pages 698-712, June.
    9. Srdelic, Leonarda & Davila-Fernandez, Marwil J., 2022. "Demographic transition and economic growth in 6-EU member states," MPRA Paper 112188, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Stefano di Bucchianico, 2019. "A bit of Keynesian debt-to-GDP arithmetic for deficit-capped countries," Bulletin of Political Economy, Bulletin of Political Economy, vol. 13(1), pages 55-83, June.
    11. Salvatore D'Acunto & Domenico Suppa, 2021. "L'output gap tra scienza e superstizione. (The output gap between science and superstition)," Moneta e Credito, Economia civile, vol. 74(294), pages 113-135.
    12. Sergio Cesaratto, 2022. "Le frontiere della politica monetaria: aspetti didattici, teorici, di politica economica. Un review article (The frontiers of monetary policy: didactic, theoretical, economic policy aspects. A review ," Moneta e Credito, Economia civile, vol. 75(299), pages 353-373.
    13. Di Domenico, Lorenzo, 2021. "Stability and determinants of the public debt-to-GDP ratio: an Input Output – Stock Flow Consistent approach," MPRA Paper 110460, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Stefano Figuera & Guglielmo Forges Davanzati & Andrea Pacella, 2022. "Considerations on the Legacy of Ordoliberalism in European Monetary Policy," HISTORY OF ECONOMIC THOUGHT AND POLICY, FrancoAngeli Editore, vol. 2022(2), pages 95-122.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    European crisis; Political and currency unions; ECB; Balance-of-payments crisis; Mercantilism;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E11 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Marxian; Sraffian; Kaleckian
    • F33 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions
    • N14 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations - - - Europe: 1913-

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