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Maturity Structure and Supply Factors in Japanese Government Bond Markets

Author

Listed:
  • Ichiro Fukunaga
  • Naoya Kato
  • Junko Koeda

Abstract

Using our constructed database on the amount outstanding of Japanese Government Bonds (JGBs) categorized by holder and remaining maturity, we examine the effects of changes in the holders and maturity structures on the term structure of interest rates and the risk premium on long-term bonds. Both approaches using single-equation regressions and a term structure model confirm that the net supply of JGBs, the issuance (supply) by the government minus the demand by the preferred-habitat investors including the Bank of Japan (BOJ), had significant effects on long-term interest rates. The regression approach implies that the net supply effects were stronger in the zero interest rate periods, while this relationship was not found using the model approach. We also calculate the net supply effects of the BOJ fs JGB purchases as part of its Quantitative and Qualitative Monetary Easing and compare the results with those obtained from a simple event-study analysis.

Suggested Citation

  • Ichiro Fukunaga & Naoya Kato & Junko Koeda, 2015. "Maturity Structure and Supply Factors in Japanese Government Bond Markets," Monetary and Economic Studies, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, vol. 33, pages 45-96, November.
  • Handle: RePEc:ime:imemes:v:33:y:2015:p:45-96
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Arito Ono & Kosuke Aoki & Shinichi Nishioka & Kohei Shintani & Yosuke Yasui, 2016. "Long-term interest rates and bank loan supply: Evidence from firm-bank loan-level data," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 16-E-2, Bank of Japan.
    2. Arteta, Carlos & Kose, Ayhan & Stocker, Marc & Taskin, Temel, 2016. "Negative Interest Rate Policies: Sources and Implications," CEPR Discussion Papers 11433, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    3. Koji Nakamura & Tomoyuki Yagi, 2015. "Fiscal Conditions and Long-term Interest Rates," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 15-E-10, Bank of Japan.
    4. Masafumi Nakano & Akihiko Takahashi & Soichiro Takahashi & Takami Tokioka, 2017. "On the effect of Bank of Japan's outright purchase on the JGB yield curve," CARF F-Series CARF-F-419, Center for Advanced Research in Finance, Faculty of Economics, The University of Tokyo.
    5. Breedon, Francis, 2018. "On the transactions costs of UK quantitative easing," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 347-356.
    6. Hiroshi Ugai, 2015. "Transmission Channels and Welfare Implications of Unconventional Monetary Easing Policy in Japan," UTokyo Price Project Working Paper Series 060, University of Tokyo, Graduate School of Economics, revised Dec 2015.
    7. Martijn Boermans & Viacheslav Keshkov, 2018. "The impact of the ECB asset purchases on the European bond market structure: Granular evidence on ownership concentration," DNB Working Papers 590, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
    8. Breckenfelder, Johannes & De Fiore, Fiorella & Andrade, Philippe & Karadi, Peter & Tristani, Oreste, 2016. "The ECB's asset purchase programme: an early assessment," Working Paper Series 1956, European Central Bank.
    9. Arito Ono, Kosuke Aoki & hinichi Nishioka & Kohei Shintani & Yosuke Yasui, 2018. "Long-term interest rates and bank loan supply: Evidence from firm-bank loan-level data," Working Papers e119, Tokyo Center for Economic Research.
    10. Junko Koeda, 2017. "Bond Supply and Excess Bond Returns in Zero-Lower Bound and Normal Environments: Evidence from Japan," The Japanese Economic Review, Japanese Economic Association, vol. 68(4), pages 443-457, December.
    11. Joseph E. Gagnon, 2016. "Quantitative Easing: An Underappreciated Success," Policy Briefs PB16-4, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
    12. Yushi Endo & Takushi Kurozumi & Takemasa Oda & Kenichirou Watanabe, 2015. "Monetary Policy: Its Effects and Implementation: Summary of the 2015 BOJ-IMES Conference Organized by the Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies of the Bank of Japan," Monetary and Economic Studies, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, vol. 33, pages 1-24, November.
    13. repec:bla:jecsur:v:32:y:2018:i:5:p:1229-1256 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. repec:kap:apfinm:v:25:y:2018:i:1:d:10.1007_s10690-018-9238-5 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. repec:eee:quaeco:v:72:y:2019:i:c:p:206-214 is not listed on IDEAS
    16. Loriana Pelizzon & Marti G. Subrahmanyam & Reiko Tobe & Jun Uno, 2018. "Scarcity and Spotlight Effects on Liquidity and Yield: Quantitative Easing in Japan," IMES Discussion Paper Series 18-E-14, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan.
    17. Masafumi Nakano & Akihiko Takahashi & Soichiro Takahashi & Takami Tokioka, 2017. "On the Effect of Bank of Japan's Outright Purchase on the JGB Yield Curve ," CIRJE F-Series CIRJE-F-1062, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo.
    18. Nao Sudo & Masaki Tanaka, 2018. "Do Market Segmentation and Preferred Habitat Theories Hold in Japan? : Quantifying Stock and Flow Effects of Bond Purchases," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 18-E-16, Bank of Japan.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Japanese Government Bonds; Term structure of interest rates; Preferred habitat; Unconventional monetary policy;

    JEL classification:

    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt

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