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The Effects of U.S. Monetary Policy on Emerging Market Economies' Sovereign and Corporate Bond Markets

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  • John D. Burger
  • Francis E. Warnock
  • Veronica Cacdac Warnock

Abstract

We analyze the effect of the US Federal Reserve’s monetary policy on EME sovereign and corporate bond markets by focusing on two dimensions: the evolution of the structure (size and currency composition) of the bond markets and their allocations within the bond portfolios of US investors. Global factors, particularly the level of long-term US Treasury yields, matter. Across all specifications, when US long-term interest rates were low (i) EMEs issued more sovereign and private-sector local currency bonds and more private-sector foreign currency bonds and (ii) US investment in EME sovereign bonds (both local currency and USD-denominated) increased. In contrast, after controlling for the level of US long-term interest rates, measures that attempt to isolate the effects of US unconventional monetary policy are often statistically insignificant in our analysis. Local factors matter too: The local currency government bond markets in countries with stronger regulatory quality/creditor rights are larger and attract relatively more US investment. Finally, consistent with Burger et al. (2017), we find that the well-known home bias phenomenon is at least in part a home currency bias: US investors exhibit no home bias against some countries’ USD-denominated bonds, whereas for local currency bonds the familiar home bias is very present.

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  • John D. Burger & Francis E. Warnock & Veronica Cacdac Warnock, 2017. "The Effects of U.S. Monetary Policy on Emerging Market Economies' Sovereign and Corporate Bond Markets," NBER Working Papers 23628, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:23628
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    Cited by:

    1. Vincenzo Quadrini, 2020. "The Impact of Industrialized Countries’ Monetary Policy on Emerging Economies," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 68(3), pages 550-583, September.
    2. Agur, Itai & Chan, Melissa & Goswami, Mangal & Sharma, Sunil, 2019. "On international integration of emerging sovereign bond markets," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 347-363.
    3. Vincenzo Quadrini, 0. "The Impact of Industrialized Countries’ Monetary Policy on Emerging Economies," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 0, pages 1-34.
    4. Nelson Camanho & Harald Hau & Hélène Rey, 2018. "Global Portfolio Rebalancing and Exchange Rates," NBER Working Papers 24320, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Abuelfadl, Moustafa & Yamani, Ehab, 2021. "Currency news and international bond markets," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).
    6. Ciminelli, Gabriele & Rogers, John & Wu, Wenbin, 2022. "The effects of U.S. monetary policy on international mutual fund investment," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 127(C).
    7. Ansgar Belke & Christian Fahrholz, 2018. "Emerging and small open economies, unconventional monetary policy and exchange rates – a survey," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 15(2), pages 331-352, April.
    8. Tsang, Andrew & Yiu, Matthew S. & Nguyen, Huy Toan, 2021. "Spillover across sovereign bond markets between the US and ASEAN4 economies," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F21 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Investment; Long-Term Capital Movements
    • F3 - International Economics - - International Finance
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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