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U.S. Investment in Global Bonds: As the Fed Pushes, Some EMEs Pull

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  • John D. Burger
  • Rajeswari Sengupta
  • Francis E. Warnock
  • Veronica Cacdac Warnock

Abstract

We analyze reallocations within the international bond portfolios of US investors. The most striking empirical observation is a steady increase in US investors' allocations toward emerging market local currency bonds, unabated by the global financial crisis and accelerating in the post-crisis period. Part of the increase in EME allocations is associated with global "push" factors such as low US long-term interest rates and unconventional monetary policy as well as subdued risk aversion/expected volatility. But also evident is investor differentiation among EMEs, with the largest reallocations going to those EMEs with strong macroeconomic fundamentals such as more positive current account balances, less volatile inflation, and stronger economic growth. We also provide a descriptive analysis of global bond markets' structure and returns.

Suggested Citation

  • John D. Burger & Rajeswari Sengupta & Francis E. Warnock & Veronica Cacdac Warnock, 2014. "U.S. Investment in Global Bonds: As the Fed Pushes, Some EMEs Pull," NBER Working Papers 20571, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:20571
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    1. Raddatz, Claudio & Schmukler, Sergio L., 2012. "On the international transmission of shocks: Micro-evidence from mutual fund portfolios," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(2), pages 357-374.
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    Cited by:

    1. John D. Burger & Francis E. Warnock & Veronica Cacdac Warnock, 2017. "Currency Matters: Analyzing International Bond Portfolios," NBER Working Papers 23175, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Ayala, Diana & Nedeljkovic, Milan & Saborowski, Christian, 2017. "What slice of the pie? The corporate bond market boom in emerging economies," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 16-35.
    3. Jesse Schreger & Wenxin Du, 2014. "Sovereign Risk, Currency Risk, and Corporate Balance Sheets," Working Paper 209056, Harvard University OpenScholar.
    4. repec:chb:bcchsb:v25c03pp049-095 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Eichler, Stefan & Plaga, Timo, 2017. "The political determinants of government bond holdings," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 73(PA), pages 1-21.
    6. E Curcuru & Charles P Thomas & Francis E Warnock, 2015. "Cross-border portfolios: assets, liabilities, and non-flow adjustments," BIS Papers chapters,in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Cross-border Financial Linkages: Challenges for Monetary Policy and Financial Stability, volume 82, pages 7-24 Bank for International Settlements.
    7. Huber, Florian & Punzi, Maria Teresa, 2017. "The shortage of safe assets in the US investment portfolio: Some international evidence," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 318-336.
    8. Anusha Chari & Karlye Dilts Stedman & Christian Lundblad, 2017. "Taper Tantrums: QE, its Aftermath and Emerging Market Capital Flows," NBER Working Papers 23474, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. John D. Burger & Francis E. Warnock & Veronica Cacdac Warnock, 2017. "The Effects of U.S. Monetary Policy on Emerging Market Economies' Sovereign and Corporate Bond Markets," NBER Working Papers 23628, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Georgiadis, Georgios & Mehl, Arnaud, 2016. "Financial globalisation and monetary policy effectiveness," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 103(C), pages 200-212.
    11. Paul Mizen & Frank Packer & Eli Remolona & Serafeim Tsoukas, 2018. "Original sin in corporate finance: New evidence from Asian bond issuers in onshore and offshore markets," Discussion Papers 2018/04, University of Nottingham, Centre for Finance, Credit and Macroeconomics (CFCM).
    12. Georgiadis, Georgios & Mehl, Arnaud, 2015. "Trilemma, not dilemma: financial globalisation and Monetary policy effectiveness," Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute Working Paper 222, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    13. Tim A Kroencke & Maik Schmeling & Andreas Schrimpf, 2015. "Global Asset Allocation Shifts," BIS Working Papers 497, Bank for International Settlements.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F21 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Investment; Long-Term Capital Movements
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions

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