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Original sin redux: role of duration risk

Author

Listed:
  • Carol Bertaut
  • Valentina Bruno
  • Hyun Song Shin

Abstract

We highlight the role of duration and exchange rate risks on portfolio flows by using a unique and comprehensive database of US investor flows into emerging market government bonds denominated in local currency. Borrowing long-term mitigates roll-over risk but amplifies valuation changes that further interact with currency movements. Our analysis highlights the double-edged nature of long-term borrowing and draws attention to market stress dynamics from the nonbank financial sector.

Suggested Citation

  • Carol Bertaut & Valentina Bruno & Hyun Song Shin, 2023. "Original sin redux: role of duration risk," BIS Working Papers 1109, Bank for International Settlements.
    • Handle: RePEc:bis:biswps:1109
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    Cited by:

    1. Moro, Alessandro & Zaghini, Andrea, 2023. "The green sin: How exchange rate volatility and financial openness affect green premia," CFS Working Paper Series 715, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
    2. Pérez Caldentey, Esteban & Vernengo, Matías, 2024. "A Financially Driven Business Cycle for Latin America and the Caribbean," Economia Internazionale / International Economics, Camera di Commercio Industria Artigianato Agricoltura di Genova, vol. 77(1), pages 5-36.
    3. Alessandro Moro & Andrea Zaghini, 2024. "The green sin: how exchange rate volatility and financial openness affect green premia," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1447, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    4. Guilherme Suedekum, 2023. "Local Currency Sovereign Debt Markets, Global Financial Conditions and the Role of Foreign Investors," IHEID Working Papers 19-2023, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    portfolio flows; local currency bonds; non-bank financial intermediaries;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F65 - International Economics - - Economic Impacts of Globalization - - - Finance
    • G23 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Non-bank Financial Institutions; Financial Instruments; Institutional Investors
    • H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt

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