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Original sin redux: role of duration risk

Author

Listed:
  • Carol Bertaut
  • Valentina Bruno
  • Hyun Song Shin

Abstract

We highlight the role of duration and exchange rate risks on portfolio flows by using a unique and comprehensive database of US investor flows into emerging market government bonds denominated in local currency. Borrowing long-term mitigates roll-over risk but amplifies valuation changes that further interact with currency movements. Our analysis highlights the double-edged nature of long-term borrowing and draws attention to market stress dynamics from the nonbank financial sector.

Suggested Citation

  • Carol Bertaut & Valentina Bruno & Hyun Song Shin, 2023. "Original sin redux: role of duration risk," BIS Working Papers 1109, Bank for International Settlements.
    • Handle: RePEc:bis:biswps:1109
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Alessandro Moro & Andrea Zaghini, 2025. "The green sin: how exchange rate volatility and financial openness affect green premia," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 29(4), pages 1189-1217.
    2. Park, Cyn-Young & Shin, Kwanho, 2025. "The development of local currency bond markets and uncovered interest rate parity," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 154(C).
    3. Longaric, Pablo Anaya & Cera, Katharina & Georgiadis, Georgios & Kaufmann, Christoph, 2025. "Investment funds and euro disaster risk," Working Paper Series 3029, European Central Bank.
    4. Paolo Cavallino & Torsten Ehlers & Fredy Gamboa & Rafael Guerra & Berenice Martinez & Ilhyock Shim, 2026. "Capital flows, exchange rates and financial conditions in EMEs in an evolving international monetary system," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Capital flows, exchange rates and financial conditions in EMEs in an evolving international monetary system, volume 127, pages 6-62, Bank for International Settlements.
    5. Claudia M. Buch & Linda S. Goldberg, 2024. "International Banking and Nonbank Financial Intermediation: Global Liquidity, Regulation, and Implications," Staff Reports 1091, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    6. Botero-Ramírez, Oscar David & Murcia, Andrés & Villamizar-Villegas, Mauricio, 2025. "Foreign investment dynamics: The impact of benchmark-driven versus unconstrained investors on local credit conditions," Working papers 112, Red Investigadores de Economía.
    7. Wong, Ka Lok & Manger, Mark & Panizza, Ugo, 2026. "Determinants of Sovereign Bond Issuance in Emerging Markets," CEPR Discussion Papers 21251, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    8. Heike Joebges & Hansjörg Herr & Christian Kellermann, 2025. "Crypto assets as a threat to financial market stability," Eurasian Economic Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 15(2), pages 473-502, June.
    9. Faia, Ester & Lewis, Karen K. & Zhou, Haonan, 2025. "Do investor differences impact monetary policy spillovers to emerging markets?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 156(C).
    10. Bank for International Settlements, 2024. "Keeping the momentum:how finance can continue to support growth in EMEs," BIS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 148.
    11. Fabrizio Zampolli, 2026. "Financial stability limits on fiscal space," BIS Working Papers 1339, Bank for International Settlements.
    12. Marco Flaccadoro & Stefania Villa, 2025. "Global risk aversion and the term premium gap in emerging market economies," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1493, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    13. Esteban Pérez Caldentey & Matías Vernengo, 2024. "A Financially Driven Business Cycle for Latin America and the Caribbean," Economia Internazionale / International Economics, Camera di Commercio Industria Artigianato Agricoltura di Genova, vol. 77(1), pages 5-36.
    14. Ocampo, José Antonio & Villamizar-Villegas, Mauricio & Orbegozo-Rodríguez, Germán & Fajardo-Baquero, Nicolás & Botero-Ramírez, Oscar & Orozco-Vanegas, Camilo, 2025. "The role of investor participation on sovereign debt markets: Evidence from an emerging economy," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).
    15. Guilherme Suedekum, 2023. "Local Currency Sovereign Debt Markets, Global Financial Conditions and the Role of Foreign Investors," IHEID Working Papers 19-2023, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies.
    16. Tracy Chan & Goetz von Peter & Philip Wooldridge, 2025. "International finance through the lens of BIS statistics: bond markets, domestic and international," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, September.

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    JEL classification:

    • F65 - International Economics - - Economic Impacts of Globalization - - - Finance
    • G23 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Non-bank Financial Institutions; Financial Instruments; Institutional Investors
    • H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt

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