IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/cpr/ceprdp/18757.html

Original Sin Redux: Role of Duration Risk

Author

Listed:
  • Bertaut, Carol
  • Bruno, Valentina
  • Shin, Hyun Song

Abstract

We highlight the role of duration and exchange rate risks on portfolio flows by using a unique and comprehensive database of US investor flows into emerging market government bonds denominated in local currency. Borrowing long-term mitigates roll-over risk but amplifies valuation changes that further interact with currency movements. Our analysis highlights the double-edged nature of long-term borrowing and draws attention to market stress dynamics due to strategic complementarities among mutual fund investors.

Suggested Citation

  • Bertaut, Carol & Bruno, Valentina & Shin, Hyun Song, 2024. "Original Sin Redux: Role of Duration Risk," CEPR Discussion Papers 18757, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:18757
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://cepr.org/publications/DP18757
    Download Restriction: CEPR Discussion Papers are free to download for our researchers, subscribers and members. If you fall into one of these categories but have trouble downloading our papers, please contact us at subscribers@cepr.org
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or

    for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Alessandro Moro & Andrea Zaghini, 2025. "The green sin: how exchange rate volatility and financial openness affect green premia," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 29(4), pages 1189-1217.
    3. Faia, Ester & Lewis, Karen K. & Zhou, Haonan, 2025. "Do investor differences impact monetary policy spillovers to emerging markets?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 156(C).
    4. Marco Flaccadoro & Stefania Villa, 2025. "Global risk aversion and the term premium gap in emerging market economies," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1493, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    5. Ocampo, José Antonio & Villamizar-Villegas, Mauricio & Orbegozo-Rodríguez, Germán & Fajardo-Baquero, Nicolás & Botero-Ramírez, Oscar & Orozco-Vanegas, Camilo, 2025. "The role of investor participation on sovereign debt markets: Evidence from an emerging economy," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).
    6. Esteban Pérez Caldentey & Matías Vernengo, 2024. "A Financially Driven Business Cycle for Latin America and the Caribbean," Economia Internazionale / International Economics, Camera di Commercio Industria Artigianato Agricoltura di Genova, vol. 77(1), pages 5-36.
    7. Park, Cyn-Young & Shin, Kwanho, 2025. "The development of local currency bond markets and uncovered interest rate parity," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 154(C).
    8. Botero-Ramírez, Oscar David & Murcia, Andrés & Villamizar-Villegas, Mauricio, 2025. "Foreign investment dynamics: The impact of benchmark-driven versus unconstrained investors on local credit conditions," Working papers 112, Red Investigadores de Economía.
    9. Tracy Chan & Goetz von Peter & Philip Wooldridge, 2025. "International finance through the lens of BIS statistics: bond markets, domestic and international," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, September.
    10. Longaric, Pablo Anaya & Cera, Katharina & Georgiadis, Georgios & Kaufmann, Christoph, 2025. "Investment funds and euro disaster risk," Working Paper Series 3029, European Central Bank.
    11. Bank for International Settlements, 2024. "Keeping the momentum:how finance can continue to support growth in EMEs," BIS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 148, November.
    12. Claudia M. Buch & Linda S. Goldberg, 2024. "International Banking and Nonbank Financial Intermediation: Global Liquidity, Regulation, and Implications," Staff Reports 1091, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    13. Guilherme Suedekum, 2023. "Local Currency Sovereign Debt Markets, Global Financial Conditions and the Role of Foreign Investors," IHEID Working Papers 19-2023, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • F65 - International Economics - - Economic Impacts of Globalization - - - Finance
    • G23 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Non-bank Financial Institutions; Financial Instruments; Institutional Investors
    • H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:18757. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.cepr.org .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.