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Who Holds Sovereign Debt and Why It Matters

Author

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  • Xiang Fang
  • Bryan Hardy
  • Karen K Lewis

Abstract

This paper studies whether investor composition affects the sovereign debt market. We construct a data set of sovereign debt holdings by foreign and domestic bank, nonbank private and official investors for 101 countries across three decades. Compared with other investors, private nonbank investors absorb a disproportionate share of the debt supply, and their demand for emerging market debt is most price responsive. A counterfactual analysis of emerging market sovereigns shows a 10% increase in debt leads to a 5.8% yield increase but an outsized 8.4% increase without nonbank investors. We conclude that sovereigns are vulnerable to the loss of nonbanks.

Suggested Citation

  • Xiang Fang & Bryan Hardy & Karen K Lewis, 2025. "Who Holds Sovereign Debt and Why It Matters," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 38(8), pages 2326-2361.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:rfinst:v:38:y:2025:i:8:p:2326-2361.
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1093/rfs/hhaf031
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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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