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Foreign demand for safety and macroeconomic instability

Author

Listed:
  • Castells-Jauregui, Madalen
  • Kuvshinov, Dmitry
  • Richter, Björn
  • Vanasco, Victoria

Abstract

Using novel data on sectoral safe asset positions in 21 advanced economies since 1980, we document the central role of the foreign sector in the market for safety and its macroeconomic implications. We show that safe asset holdings have expanded significantly relative to GDP, driven by rising net holdings of the foreign sector and accommodated by increased issuance from the financial and public sectors. Furthermore, fluctuations in safe assets are almost exclusively driven by the foreign and financial sectors, with close links between the two. Finally, increases in foreign demand for safety-or its counterpart, the supply by financials-are associated with domestic credit expansions and weaker medium-term output growth, both in raw data and when using FX reserve accumulation in Asian economies as instrument. JEL Classification: E42, E44, E51, F33, F34, G15

Suggested Citation

  • Castells-Jauregui, Madalen & Kuvshinov, Dmitry & Richter, Björn & Vanasco, Victoria, 2025. "Foreign demand for safety and macroeconomic instability," Working Paper Series 3126, European Central Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20253126
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • E42 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Monetary Sytsems; Standards; Regimes; Government and the Monetary System
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E51 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Money Supply; Credit; Money Multipliers
    • F33 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions
    • F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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