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Why Does the Yield Curve Predict GDP Growth? The Role of Banks

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Abstract

We show that the slope of the yield curve affects bank lending and economic activity through an "expected bank profitability channel." Using detailed banking data and term premium shocks identified via instrumental variables or event studies, we show that a steeper yield curve—when driven by higher term premiums rather than higher expected short rates—increases bank profits and loan supply. Intuitively, a higher term premium raises the expected returns from maturity transformation—a core banking activity—thereby incentivizing bank lending. This effect is more pronounced for banks with higher leverage. We interpret these findings using a simple bank portfolio model.

Suggested Citation

  • Camelia Minoiu & Andrés Schneider & Min Wei, 2025. "Why Does the Yield Curve Predict GDP Growth? The Role of Banks," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2025-5, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedawp:101197
    DOI: 10.29338/wp2025-05
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    Keywords

    predictive power of the yield curve; term spread; term premium; bank lending; bank profitability; interest rate risk;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • G2 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services

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