IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/bge/wpaper/1090.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Expansionary Yet Different: Credit Supply and Real Effects of Negative Interest Rate Policy

Author

Listed:
  • Margherita Bottero
  • Camelia Minoiu
  • José-Luis Peydró
  • Andrea Polo
  • Andrea F. Presbitero
  • Enrico Sette

Abstract

We show that negative interest rate policy (NIRP) has expansionary effects on bank credit supply and firm outcomes through a portfolio rebalancing channel. For identification, we exploit ECB’s NIRP and credit register, firm- and bank-level datasets. NIRP affects relatively more banks with higher ex-ante net interbank positions or more liquid balance sheets. More exposed banks reduce liquid assets, expand credit supply to ex-ante riskier firms, and cut rates, inducing sizable firm-level real effects. By shifting down and flattening the yield curve, NIRP differs from rate cuts just above the zero-lower-bound. We find no evidence of a contractionary retail deposit channel.

Suggested Citation

  • Margherita Bottero & Camelia Minoiu & José-Luis Peydró & Andrea Polo & Andrea F. Presbitero & Enrico Sette, 2019. "Expansionary Yet Different: Credit Supply and Real Effects of Negative Interest Rate Policy," Working Papers 1090, Barcelona Graduate School of Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:bge:wpaper:1090
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.barcelonagse.eu/sites/default/files/working_paper_pdfs/1090_0.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Douglas W. Diamond & Raghuram G. Rajan, 2012. "Illiquid Banks, Financial Stability, and Interest Rate Policy," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 120(3), pages 552-591.
    2. Enrico Sette & Giorgio Gobbi, 2015. "Relationship Lending During A Financial Crisis," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 13(3), pages 453-481, June.
    3. Gabriel Jiménez & Steven Ongena & José‐Luis Peydró & Jesús Saurina, 2014. "Hazardous Times for Monetary Policy: What Do Twenty‐Three Million Bank Loans Say About the Effects of Monetary Policy on Credit Risk‐Taking?," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 82(2), pages 463-505, March.
    4. Óscar Arce & Miguel García-Posada & Sergio Mayordomo & Steven Ongena, 2018. "Adapting lending policies in a “negative-for-long” scenario (Updated October 2020)," Working Papers 1832, Banco de España;Working Papers Homepage, revised Oct 2020.
    5. Viral V Acharya & Tim Eisert & Christian Eufinger & Christian Hirsch, 2019. "Whatever It Takes: The Real Effects of Unconventional Monetary Policy," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 32(9), pages 3366-3411.
    6. Christian Grisse & Signe Krogstrup & Silvio Schumacher, 2017. "Lower-Bound Beliefs and Long-Term Interest Rates," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 13(3), pages 165-202, September.
    7. Marcello Bofondi & Luisa Carpinelli & Enrico Sette, 2018. "Credit Supply During a Sovereign Debt Crisis," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 16(3), pages 696-729.
    8. Florian Heider & Farzad Saidi & Glenn Schepens, 2019. "Life below Zero: Bank Lending under Negative Policy Rates," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 32(10), pages 3728-3761.
    9. Peydr�, Jos� Luis & Polo, Andrea & Sette, Enrico, 2017. "Monetary Policy at Work: Security and Credit Application Registers Evidence," CEPR Discussion Papers 12011, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    10. Gauti B. Eggertsson & Ragnar E. Juelsrud & Lawrence H. Summers & Ella Getz Wold, 2019. "Negative Nominal Interest Rates and the Bank Lending Channel," NBER Working Papers 25416, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Gabriel Jiménez & Steven Ongena & José-Luis Peydró & Jesús Saurina, 2017. "Macroprudential Policy, Countercyclical Bank Capital Buffers, and Credit Supply: Evidence from the Spanish Dynamic Provisioning Experiments," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 125(6), pages 2126-2177.
    12. Jing Cynthia Wu & Fan Dora Xia, 2018. "Negative Interest Rate Policy and the Yield Curve," NBER Working Papers 25180, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. Kenneth Rogoff, 2017. "Dealing with Monetary Paralysis at the Zero Bound," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 31(3), pages 47-66, Summer.
    14. Itamar Drechsler & Alexi Savov & Philipp Schnabl, 2017. "The Deposits Channel of Monetary Policy," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 132(4), pages 1819-1876.
    15. Lemke, Wolfgang & Vladu, Andreea L., 2016. "Below the zero lower bound: A shadow-rate term structure model for the euro area," Discussion Papers 32/2016, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    16. Paul Hubert & Fabien Labondance, 2018. "The Effect of ECB Forward Guidance on the Term Structure of Interest Rates," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 14(5), pages 193-222, December.
    17. Iyer, Rajkamal & Da-Rocha-Lopes, Samuel & Peydró, José-Luis & Schoar, Antoinette, 2014. "Interbank Liquidity Crunch and the Firm Credit Crunch: Evidence from the 2007-2009 Crisis," EconStor Open Access Articles, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, pages 347-372.
    18. Eric T. Swanson, 2018. "The Federal Reserve Is Not Very Constrained by the Lower Bound on Nominal Interest Rates," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 49(2 (Fall)), pages 555-572.
    19. De Marco, Filippo, 2019. "Bank Lending and the European Sovereign Debt Crisis," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 54(1), pages 155-182, February.
    20. Altavilla, Carlo & Burlon, Lorenzo & Giannetti, Mariassunta & Holton, Sarah, 2019. "Is there a zero lower bound? The effects of negative policy rates on banks and firms," Working Paper Series 2289, European Central Bank.
    21. Arvind Krishnamurthy & Annette Vissing-Jorgensen, 2011. "The Effects of Quantitative Easing on Interest Rates: Channels and Implications for Policy," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 42(2 (Fall)), pages 215-287.
    22. Mauricio Ulate, 2019. "Going Negative at the Zero Lower Bound: The Effects of Negative Nominal Interest Rates," Working Paper Series 2019-21, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    23. Borio, Claudio & Zhu, Haibin, 2012. "Capital regulation, risk-taking and monetary policy: A missing link in the transmission mechanism?," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 8(4), pages 236-251.
    24. Matteo Benetton & Davide Fantino, 2018. "Competition and the pass-through of unconventional monetary policy: evidence from TLTROs," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1187, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    25. Gambetti, Luca & Musso, Alberto, 2017. "The macroeconomic impact of the ECB's expanded asset purchase programme (APP)," Working Paper Series 2075, European Central Bank.
    26. Alisdair McKay & Emi Nakamura & Jón Steinsson, 2016. "The Power of Forward Guidance Revisited," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 106(10), pages 3133-3158, October.
    27. Albertazzi, Ugo & Becker, Bo & Boucinha, Miguel, 2018. "Portfolio rebalancing and the transmission of large-scale asset programmes: evidence from the euro area," Working Paper Series 2125, European Central Bank.
    28. D’Amico, Stefania & King, Thomas B., 2013. "Flow and stock effects of large-scale treasury purchases: Evidence on the importance of local supply," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(2), pages 425-448.
    29. Itamar Drechsler & Alexi Savov & Philipp Schnabl, 2018. "Banking on Deposits: Maturity Transformation without Interest Rate Risk," NBER Working Papers 24582, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    30. Guido W. Imbens & Jeffrey M. Wooldridge, 2009. "Recent Developments in the Econometrics of Program Evaluation," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 47(1), pages 5-86, March.
    31. Baldo, Luca & Hallinger, Benoît & Helmus, Caspar & Herrala, Niko & Martins, Débora & Mohing, Felix & Petroulakis, Filippos & Resinek, Marc & Vergote, Olivier & Usciati, Benoît & Wang, Yizhou, 2017. "The distribution of excess liquidity in the euro area," Occasional Paper Series 200, European Central Bank.
    32. Lopez, Jose A. & Rose, Andrew K. & Spiegel, Mark M., 2020. "Why have negative nominal interest rates had such a small effect on bank performance? Cross country evidence," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 124(C).
    33. Jiménez, Gabriel & Mian, Atif & Peydró, José-Luis & Saurina, Jesús, 2020. "The Real Effects of the Bank Lending Channel," EconStor Open Access Articles, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, pages 162-179.
    34. Carlo Altavilla & Miguel Boucinha & José-Luis Peydró & Thorsten BeckManaging Editor, 2018. "Monetary policy and bank profitability in a low interest rate environment," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 33(96), pages 531-586.
    35. Alexander Rodnyansky & Olivier M. Darmouni, 2017. "The Effects of Quantitative Easing on Bank Lending Behavior," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 30(11), pages 3858-3887.
    36. S. Demiralp & J. Eisenschmidt & T. Vlassopoulos, 2017. "Negative interest rates, excess liquidity and bank business models: Banks’ reaction to unconventional monetary policy in the euro area," Koç University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum Working Papers 1708, Koc University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum.
    37. Federico Cingano & Francesco Manaresi & Enrico Sette, 2016. "Does Credit Crunch Investment Down? New Evidence on the Real Effects of the Bank-Lending Channel," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 29(10), pages 2737-2773.
    38. Cúrdia, Vasco & Woodford, Michael, 2011. "The central-bank balance sheet as an instrument of monetarypolicy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(1), pages 54-79, January.
    39. Paolo Angelini & Andrea Nobili & Cristina Picillo, 2011. "The Interbank Market after August 2007: What Has Changed, and Why?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 43(5), pages 923-958, August.
    40. Gabriel Jimenez & Steven Ongena & Jose-Luis Peydro & Jesus Saurina, 2012. "Credit Supply and Monetary Policy: Identifying the Bank Balance-Sheet Channel with Loan Applications," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(5), pages 2301-2326, August.
    41. Jeremy C. Stein & Anil K. Kashyap, 2000. "What Do a Million Observations on Banks Say about the Transmission of Monetary Policy?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(3), pages 407-428, June.
    42. Arvind Krishnamurthy & Annette Vissing-Jorgensen, 2011. "The Effects of Quantitative Easing on Interest Rates: Channels and Implications for Policy," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 43(2 (Fall)), pages 215-287.
    43. Christoph Basten & Mike Mariathasan, 2018. "How Banks Respond to Negative Interest Rates: Evidence from the Swiss Exemption Threshold," CESifo Working Paper Series 6901, CESifo.
    44. Giovanni Dell'Ariccia & Luc Laeven & Gustavo A. Suarez, 2017. "Bank Leverage and Monetary Policy's Risk-Taking Channel: Evidence from the United States," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 72(2), pages 613-654, April.
    45. Edward I. Altman, 1968. "Financial Ratios, Discriminant Analysis And The Prediction Of Corporate Bankruptcy," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 23(4), pages 589-609, September.
    46. Eric R. Sims & Jing Cynthia Wu, 2019. "Evaluating Central Banks' Tool Kit: Past, Present, and Future," NBER Working Papers 26040, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    47. Asim Ijaz Khwaja & Atif Mian, 2008. "Tracing the Impact of Bank Liquidity Shocks: Evidence from an Emerging Market," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(4), pages 1413-1442, September.
    48. Jens Eisenschmidt & Frank Smets, 2019. "Negative Interest Rates: Lessons from the Euro Area," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Álvaro Aguirre & Markus Brunnermeier & Diego Saravia (ed.),Monetary Policy and Financial Stability: Transmission Mechanisms and Policy Implications, edition 1, volume 26, chapter 2, pages 013-042, Central Bank of Chile.
    49. Motto, Roberto & Altavilla, Carlo & Carboni, Giacomo, 2015. "Asset purchase programmes and financial markets: lessons from the euro area," Working Paper Series 1864, European Central Bank.
    50. Gertler, Mark & Karadi, Peter, 2011. "A model of unconventional monetary policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(1), pages 17-34, January.
    51. Emi Nakamura & Jón Steinsson, 2018. "Identification in Macroeconomics," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 32(3), pages 59-86, Summer.
    52. repec:bla:pacecr:v:23:y:2018:i:1:p:8-26 is not listed on IDEAS
    53. Tischer, Johannes, 2018. "Quantitative easing, portfolio rebalancing and credit growth: Micro evidence from Germany," Discussion Papers 20/2018, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    54. Chakraborty, Indraneel & Goldstein, Itay & MacKinlay, Andrew, 2020. "Monetary stimulus and bank lending," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 136(1), pages 189-218.
    55. Giovanni Dell'Ariccia & Pau Rabanal & Damiano Sandri, 2018. "Unconventional Monetary Policies in the Euro Area, Japan, and the United Kingdom," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 32(4), pages 147-172, Fall.
    56. Ruge-Murcia, Francisco J., 2006. "The expectations hypothesis of the term structure when interest rates are close to zero," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(7), pages 1409-1424, October.
    57. John Hutchinson & Frank Smets, 2017. "Monetary Policy in Uncertain Times: ECB Monetary Policy Since June 2014," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 85(S2), pages 1-15, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Altavilla, Carlo & Burlon, Lorenzo & Giannetti, Mariassunta & Holton, Sarah, 2019. "Is There a Zero Lower Bound? The Effects of Negative Policy Rates on Banks and Firms," CEPR Discussion Papers 14050, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    2. Johannes Bubeck & Angela Maddaloni & José‐Luis Peydró, 2020. "Negative Monetary Policy Rates and Systemic Banks' Risk‐Taking: Evidence from the Euro Area Securities Register," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 52(S1), pages 197-231, October.
    3. Sá, Ana Isabel & Jorge, José, 2019. "Does the deposits channel work under a low interest rate environment?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 185(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    negative interest rates; portfolio rebalancing; bank lending channel of monetary policy; liquidity management; Eurozone crisis;

    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bge:wpaper:1090. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Bruno Guallar). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/bargses.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.