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Monetary Policy and Bank Profitability in a Low Interest Rate Environment

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  • Carlo Altavilla
  • Miguel Boucinha
  • José-Luis Peydró

Abstract

We analyse the impact of standard and non-standard monetary policy on bank profitability. We use both proprietary and commercial data on individual euro area bank balance-sheets and market prices. Our results show that a monetary policy easing – a decrease in short-term interest rates and/or a flattening of the yield curve – is not associated with lower bank profits once we control for the endogeneity of the policy measures to expected macroeconomic and financial conditions. Accommodative monetary conditions asymmetrically affect the main components of bank profitability, with a positive impact on loan loss provisions and non-interest income offsetting the negative one on net interest income. A protracted period of low monetary rates has a negative effect on profits that, however, only materialises after a long time period and is counterbalanced by improved macroeconomic conditions. Monetary policy easing surprises during the low interest rate period improve bank stock prices and CDS.

Suggested Citation

  • Carlo Altavilla & Miguel Boucinha & José-Luis Peydró, 2019. "Monetary Policy and Bank Profitability in a Low Interest Rate Environment," Working Papers 1101, Barcelona Graduate School of Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:bge:wpaper:1101
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    Cited by:

    1. Matthieu Darracq Paries & Jenny Korner & Niki Papadopoulou, 2019. "Empowering Central Bank Asset Purchases: The Role of Financial Policies," Working Papers 2019-1, Central Bank of Cyprus.
    2. repec:bkr:journl:v:78:y:2019:i:1:p:89-106 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. repec:eee:ecolet:v:180:y:2019:i:c:p:54-57 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Lathaporn Ratanavararak & Nasha Ananchotikul, 2018. "Bank Profitability and Risk-Taking in a Low Interest Rate Environment: The Case of Thailand," PIER Discussion Papers 89, Puey Ungphakorn Institute for Economic Research, revised Jul 2018.
    5. Nevin, Ciarán, 2018. "Irish retail bank profitability 2003-20018," Financial Stability Notes 10-18, Central Bank of Ireland.
    6. Ampudia, Miguel & Heuvel, Skander Van den, 2018. "Monetary policy and bank equity values in a time of low interest rates," Working Paper Series 2199, European Central Bank.
    7. Fernando Avalos & Emmanuel C Mamatzakis, 2018. "Euro area unconventional monetary policy and bank resilience," BIS Working Papers 754, Bank for International Settlements.
    8. Altavilla, Carlo & Burlon, Lorenzo & Giannetti, Mariassunta & Holton, Sarah, 2019. "Is there a zero lower bound? The effects of negative policy rates on banks and firms," Working Paper Series 2289, European Central Bank.
    9. Margherita Bottero & Camelia Minoiu & José-Luis Peydro & Andrea Polo & Andrea F Presbitero & Enrico Sette, 2019. "Negative Monetary Policy Rates and Portfolio Rebalancing: Evidence from Credit Register Data," IMF Working Papers 19/44, International Monetary Fund.
    10. Amzallag, Adrien & Calza, Alessandro & Georgarakos, Dimitris & Sousa, João, 2019. "Monetary policy transmission to mortgages in a negative interest rate environment," Working Paper Series 2243, European Central Bank.
    11. repec:rba:rbaacv:acv2018-05 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Altavilla, Carlo & C. Andreeva, Desislava & Boucinha, Miguel & Holton, Sarah, 2019. "Monetary policy, credit institutions and the bank lending channel in the euro area," Occasional Paper Series 222, European Central Bank.
    13. Masolo, Riccardo M. & Winant, Pablo E., 2019. "The Stochastic Lower Bound," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 180(C), pages 54-57.
    14. Stefano Neri & Stefano Siviero, 2018. "The Non-Standard Monetary Policy Measures of the ECB: Motivations, Effectiveness and Risks," Credit and Capital Markets, Credit and Capital Markets, vol. 51(4), pages 513-560.
    15. Florian Urbschat, 2018. "The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly: Impact of Negative Interest Rates and QE on the Profitability and Risk-Taking of 1600 German Banks," CESifo Working Paper Series 7358, CESifo Group Munich.
    16. Nevin, Ciarán, 2018. "Irish retail bank profitability 2003-20018," Financial Stability Notes 10/FS/18, Central Bank of Ireland.
    17. Urbschat, Florian, 2018. "The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly: Impact of Negative Interest Rates and QE on the Profitability and Risk-Taking of 1600 German Banks," Discussion Papers in Economics 56535, University of Munich, Department of Economics.
    18. Óscar Arce & Miguel García-Posada & Sergio Mayordomo & Steven Ongena, 2018. "Adapting lending policies when negative interest rates hit banks’ profits," Working Papers 1832, Banco de España;Working Papers Homepage.
    19. Brand, Claus & Bielecki, Marcin & Penalver, Adrian, 2018. "The natural rate of interest: estimates, drivers, and challenges to monetary policy JEL Classification: E52, E43," Occasional Paper Series 217, European Central Bank.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    E52; E43; G01; G21; G28;

    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation

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