IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/ijc/ijcjou/y2017q3a5.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Lower-Bound Beliefs and Long-Term Interest Rates

Author

Listed:
  • Christian Grisse

    (Swiss National Bank)

  • Signe Krogstrup

    (International Monetary Fund)

  • Silvio Schumacher

    (Swiss National Bank)

Abstract

We study the transmission of changes in the believed location of the lower bound to long-term interest rates since the introduction of negative interest rate policies. The expectations hypothesis of the term structure combined with a lower bound on policy rates suggests that the transmission of policy rate changes to long-term interest rates is reduced when policy rates approach this lower bound. We show that if market participants revise downward the believed location of the lower bound, this may reduce long-term yields and increase transmission. A cross-country event study suggests that such effects have been empirically relevant during the recent negative interest rate episode.

Suggested Citation

  • Christian Grisse & Signe Krogstrup & Silvio Schumacher, 2017. "Lower-Bound Beliefs and Long-Term Interest Rates," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 13(3), pages 165-202, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:ijc:ijcjou:y:2017:q:3:a:5
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.ijcb.org/journal/ijcb17q3a5.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: http://www.ijcb.org/journal/ijcb17q3a5.htm
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Lemke, Wolfgang & Vladu, Andreea L., 2016. "Below the zero lower bound: A shadow-rate term structure model for the euro area," Discussion Papers 32/2016, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    2. Kortela, Tomi, 2016. "A shadow rate model with time-varying lower bound of interest rates," Research Discussion Papers 19/2016, Bank of Finland.
    3. Grisse, Christian, 2015. "The zero lower bound and movements in the term structure of interest rates," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 131(C), pages 66-69.
    4. Glenn D. Rudebusch & Eric T. Swanson, 2008. "The bond premium in a DSGE model with long-run real and nominal risks," Working Paper Research 143, National Bank of Belgium.
    5. Glenn D. Rudebusch & Eric T. Swanson, 2012. "The Bond Premium in a DSGE Model with Long-Run Real and Nominal Risks," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 4(1), pages 105-143, January.
    6. repec:zbw:bofrdp:2016_019 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Ruge-Murcia, Francisco J., 2006. "The expectations hypothesis of the term structure when interest rates are close to zero," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(7), pages 1409-1424, October.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Schelling, Tan & Towbin, Pascal, 2022. "What lies beneath—Negative interest rates and bank lending," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 51(C).
    2. Margherita Bottero & Stefano Schiaffi, 2025. "Firm Liquidity and the Transmission of Monetary Policy," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 21(2), pages 37-76, April.
    3. Simona Malovana & Josef Bajzik & Dominika Ehrenbergerova & Jan Janku, 2020. "A Prolonged Period of Low Interest Rates: Unintended Consequences," Research and Policy Notes 2020/02, Czech National Bank, Research and Statistics Department.
    4. Marcello Pericoli & Marco Taboga, 2022. "Nearly Exact Bayesian Estimation of Non-linear No-Arbitrage Term-Structure Models [Pricing the Term Structure with Linear Regressions]," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 20(5), pages 807-838.
    5. Tillmann Peter, 2021. "Robust Monetary Policy Under Uncertainty About the Lower Bound," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 21(1), pages 309-321, January.
    6. Signe Krogstrup, 2017. "Monetary Policy Accommodation at the Lower Bound," Business Economics, Palgrave Macmillan;National Association for Business Economics, vol. 52(1), pages 7-14, January.
    7. Bottero, Margherita & Minoiu, Camelia & Peydró, José-Luis & Polo, Andrea & Presbitero, Andrea F. & Sette, Enrico, 2022. "Expansionary yet different: Credit supply and real effects of negative interest rate policy," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 146(2), pages 754-778.
    8. Demiralp, Selva & Eisenschmidt, Jens & Vlassopoulos, Thomas, 2021. "Negative interest rates, excess liquidity and retail deposits: Banks’ reaction to unconventional monetary policy in the euro area," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 136(C).
    9. Ruchir Agarwal & Miles Kimball, 2019. "Enabling Deep Negative Rates to Fight Recessions: A Guide," IMF Working Papers 2019/084, International Monetary Fund.
    10. Bongiovanni, Alessio & Reghezza, Alessio & Santamaria, Riccardo & Williams, Jonathan, 2021. "Do negative interest rates affect bank risk-taking?," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 350-364.
    11. Shunsuke Haba & Yuichiro Ito & Yoshiyasu Kasai, 2025. "The Impact of Negative Interest Rate Policy on Interest Rate Formation and Lending," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 25-E-1, Bank of Japan.
    12. Peter Tillmann, 2019. "Robust Monetary Policy Under Uncertainty About the Lower Bound," MAGKS Papers on Economics 201914, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
    13. Romain Baeriswyl & Lucas Marc Fuhrer & Petra Gerlach & Jörn Tenhofen, 2021. "The dynamics of bank rates in a negative-rate environment - the Swiss case," Working Papers 2021-05, Swiss National Bank.
    14. Margherita Bottero & Ms. Camelia Minoiu & José-Luis Peydró & Andrea Polo & Mr. Andrea F Presbitero & Enrico Sette, 2019. "Negative Monetary Policy Rates and Portfolio Rebalancing: Evidence from Credit Register Data," IMF Working Papers 2019/044, International Monetary Fund.
    15. Aleksander Berentsen & Hugo van Buggenum & Romina Ruprecht, 2020. "On the negatives of negative interest rates and the positives of exemption thresholds," ECON - Working Papers 372, Department of Economics - University of Zurich.
    16. Christian Grisse & Silvio Schumacher, 2018. "Term structure dynamics at low and negative interest rates—evidence from Switzerland," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics, Springer;Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics, vol. 154(1), pages 1-17, December.
    17. Aleksander Berentsen & Romina Ruprecht & Hugo van Buggenum, 2023. "On the Negatives of Negative Interest Rates," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2023-064, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    18. Mr. Gee Hee Hong & John Kandrac, 2018. "Pushed Past the Limit? How Japanese Banks Reacted to Negative Interest Rates," IMF Working Papers 2018/131, International Monetary Fund.
    19. Olga Kuznetsova & Sergey Merzlyakov & Sergey Pekarski, 2019. "Confidence in future monetary policy as a way to overcome the liquidity trap," Russian Journal of Economics, ARPHA Platform, vol. 5(2), pages 117-135, July.
    20. Christian Grisse & Silvio Schumacher, 2017. "The response of long-term yields to negative interest rates: evidence from Switzerland," Working Papers 2017-10, Swiss National Bank.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Christian Grisse & Silvio Schumacher, 2018. "Term structure dynamics at low and negative interest rates—evidence from Switzerland," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics, Springer;Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics, vol. 154(1), pages 1-17, December.
    2. Christian Grisse & Silvio Schumacher, 2017. "The response of long-term yields to negative interest rates: evidence from Switzerland," Working Papers 2017-10, Swiss National Bank.
    3. Mumtaz, Haroon & Theodoridis, Konstantinos, 2017. "Common and country specific economic uncertainty," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 105(C), pages 205-216.
    4. repec:bic:journl:v:23:y:2023:i:1:p:2173915 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Andr? Kurmann & Christopher Otrok, 2013. "News Shocks and the Slope of the Term Structure of Interest Rates," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 103(6), pages 2612-2632, October.
    6. Maarten Dossche, 2009. "Understanding inflation dynamics : Where do we stand ?," Working Paper Research 165, National Bank of Belgium.
    7. Benchimol, Jonathan & Ivashchenko, Sergey, 2021. "Switching volatility in a nonlinear open economy," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 110(C).
    8. Isoré, Marlène & Szczerbowicz, Urszula, 2017. "Disaster risk and preference shifts in a New Keynesian model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 97-125.
    9. Christoffel, Kai & Kilponen, Juha & Jaccard, Ivan, 2011. "Government bond risk premia and the cyclicality of fiscal policy," Working Paper Series 1411, European Central Bank.
    10. Roman Horvath & Lorant Kaszab & Ales Marsal, 2022. "Fiscal Policy And the Nominal Term Premium," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 54(2-3), pages 663-683, March.
    11. Peter Tillmann, 2020. "Monetary Policy Uncertainty and the Response of the Yield Curve to Policy Shocks," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 52(4), pages 803-833, June.
    12. Robert Kollmann, 2019. "Explaining International Business Cycle Synchronization: Recursive Preferences and the Terms of Trade Channel," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 30(1), pages 65-85, February.
    13. Andrei Zlate & Federico Mandelman, 2013. "Offshoring, Low-skilled Immigration and Labor Market Polarization," 2013 Meeting Papers 1073, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    14. Eric Swanson, 2015. "A Macroeconomic Model of Equities and Real, Nominal, and Defaultable Debt," 2015 Meeting Papers 273, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    15. Hatcher, Michael, 2013. "The Inflation Risk Premium on Government Debt in an Overlapping Generations Model," SIRE Discussion Papers 2013-81, Scottish Institute for Research in Economics (SIRE).
    16. Andreasen, Martin M. & Caggiano, Giovanni & Castelnuovo, Efrem & Pellegrino, Giovanni, 2024. "Does risk matter more in recessions than in expansions? Implications for monetary policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 143(C).
    17. Mitsuru Katagiri, 2018. "Equilibrium Yield Curve, the Phillips Curve, and Monetary Policy," IMF Working Papers 2018/242, International Monetary Fund.
    18. Susanto Basu & Brent Bundick, 2017. "Uncertainty Shocks in a Model of Effective Demand," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 85, pages 937-958, May.
    19. Hatcher, Michael, 2014. "Indexed versus nominal government debt under inflation and price-level targeting," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 126-145.
    20. Tomas Havranek, 2013. "Publication Bias in Measuring Intertemporal Substitution," Working Papers IES 2013/15, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, revised Oct 2013.
    21. Mumtaz, Haroon & Theodoridis, Konstantinos, 2020. "Dynamic effects of monetary policy shocks on macroeconomic volatility," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 262-282.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ijc:ijcjou:y:2017:q:3:a:5. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Bank for International Settlements (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.ijcb.org/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.