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Government bond risk premia and the cyclicality of fiscal policy


  • Christoffel, Kai
  • Kilponen, Juha
  • Jaccard, Ivan


We introduce a specification of habit formation featuring non-separability between consumption and leisure into an otherwise standard New Keynesian model. The model can be estimated with standard Bayesian techniques and the bond pricing implications are evaluated using higher-order approximations. The model is able to reproduce a sizeable risk premium on long-term bonds and the cyclicality of fiscal policy has an impact on the bond premium that is quantitatively important. Technology, government spending, and mark-up shocks are the main drivers of the time-variation in bond premia. JEL Classification: E5, E6, G1

Suggested Citation

  • Christoffel, Kai & Kilponen, Juha & Jaccard, Ivan, 2011. "Government bond risk premia and the cyclicality of fiscal policy," Working Paper Series 1411, European Central Bank.
  • Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20111411

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Glenn D. Rudebusch & Eric T. Swanson, 2012. "The Bond Premium in a DSGE Model with Long-Run Real and Nominal Risks," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 4(1), pages 105-143, January.
    2. Leeper, Eric M. & Plante, Michael & Traum, Nora, 2010. "Dynamics of fiscal financing in the United States," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 156(2), pages 304-321, June.
    3. Eric M. Leeper, 2010. "Monetary science, fiscal alchemy," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 361-434.
    4. Rudebusch, Glenn D. & Swanson, Eric T., 2008. "Examining the bond premium puzzle with a DSGE model," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(Supplemen), pages 111-126, October.
    5. Peter Hördahl & Oreste Tristani & David Vestin, 2008. "The Yield Curve and Macroeconomic Dynamics," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 118(533), pages 1937-1970, November.
    6. Ricardo Reis & Vasco Curdia, 2009. "Correlated Disturbances and U.S. Business Cycles," 2009 Meeting Papers 129, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    7. Backus, David K. & Gregory, Allan W. & Zin, Stanley E., 1989. "Risk premiums in the term structure : Evidence from artificial economies," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 371-399, November.
    8. Talvi, Ernesto & Vegh, Carlos A., 2005. "Tax base variability and procyclical fiscal policy in developing countries," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(1), pages 156-190, October.
    9. De Graeve, Ferre & Emiris, Marina & Wouters, Raf, 2009. "A structural decomposition of the US yield curve," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(4), pages 545-559, May.
    10. Lawrence J. Christiano & Michele Boldrin & Jonas D. M. Fisher, 2001. "Habit Persistence, Asset Returns, and the Business Cycle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(1), pages 149-166, March.
    11. Ivan Jaccard, 2007. "Asset Pricing, Habit Memory, and the Labor Market," Swiss Finance Institute Research Paper Series 07-23, Swiss Finance Institute, revised Nov 2007.
    12. Ascari, Guido & Rossi, Lorenza, 2011. "Real wage rigidities and disinflation dynamics: Calvo vs. Rotemberg pricing," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 110(2), pages 126-131, February.
    13. Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2010. "Macro-Finance Models Of Interest Rates And The Economy," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 78(s1), pages 25-52, September.
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    Cited by:

    1. Crump, Richard K. & Eusepi, Stefano & Moench, Emanuel, 2016. "The term structure of expectations and bond yields," Staff Reports 775, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, revised 01 Feb 2017.
    2. Christoffel, Kai & Jaccard, Ivan & Kilponen, Juha, 2013. "Welfare and bond pricing implications of fiscal stabilization policies," Research Discussion Papers 32/2013, Bank of Finland.
    3. Paul J.J. Welfens & Samir Kadiric, 2017. "Neuere Finanzmarktaspekte von Bankenkrise, QE-Politik und EU-Bankenaufsicht," EIIW Discussion paper disbei239, Universitätsbibliothek Wuppertal, University Library.
    4. Florina-Cristina Badarau & Florence Huart & Ibrahima Sangaré, 2013. "Indebtedness and macroeconomic imbalances in a monetary-union DSGE model," Working Papers hal-00996622, HAL.
    5. Zuzana Mucka & Michal Horvath, 2015. "Fiscal Policy Matters A New DSGE Model for Slovakia," Discussion Papers Discussion Paper No. 1/20, Council for Budget Responsibility.
    6. Cristina Badarau & Florence Huart & Ibrahima Sangaré, 2014. "Sovereign Risk Premium and Divergent Fiscal Policies in a Monetary Union," Revue d'économie politique, Dalloz, vol. 124(6), pages 867-898.

    More about this item


    bond risk premium; DSGE models; fiscal policy; monetary policy;

    JEL classification:

    • E5 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit
    • E6 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook
    • G1 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets

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