Government bond risk premia and the cyclicality of fiscal policy
We introduce a specification of habit formation featuring non-separability between consumption and leisure into an otherwise standard New Keynesian model. The model can be estimated with standard Bayesian techniques and the bond pricing implications are evaluated using higher-order approximations. The model is able to reproduce a sizeable risk premium on long-term bonds and the cyclicality of fiscal policy has an impact on the bond premium that is quantitatively important. Technology, government spending, and mark-up shocks are the main drivers of the time-variation in bond premia. JEL Classification: E5, E6, G1
|Date of creation:||Dec 2011|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: 60640 Frankfurt am Main, Germany|
Phone: +49 69 1344 0
Fax: +49 69 1344 6000
Web page: http://www.ecb.europa.eu/
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Peter Hördahl & Oreste Tristani & David Vestin, 2008.
"The Yield Curve and Macroeconomic Dynamics,"
Royal Economic Society, vol. 118(533), pages 1937-1970, November.
- Ascari, Guido & Rossi, Lorenza, 2011.
"Real wage rigidities and disinflation dynamics: Calvo vs. Rotemberg pricing,"
Elsevier, vol. 110(2), pages 126-131, February.
- Guido Ascari & Lorenza Rossi, 2010. "Real Wage Rigidities and Disinflation Dynamics: Calvo vs. Rotemberg Pricing," Quaderni di Dipartimento 116, University of Pavia, Department of Economics and Quantitative Methods.
- Backus, David K. & Gregory, Allan W. & Zin, Stanley E., 1989.
"Risk premiums in the term structure : Evidence from artificial economies,"
Journal of Monetary Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 371-399, November.
- David K. Backus & Allan W. Gregory & Stanley E. Zin, 1986. "Risk Premiums in the Term Structure : Evidence from Artificial Economies," Working Papers 665, Queen's University, Department of Economics.
- Vasco Cúrdia & Ricardo Reis, 2010.
"Correlated disturbances and U.S. business cycles,"
434, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
- Cúrdia, Vasco & Reis, Ricardo, 2010. "Correlated Disturbances and U.S. Business Cycles," CEPR Discussion Papers 7712, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Vasco Cúrdia & Ricardo Reis, 2010. "Correlated Disturbances and U.S. Business Cycles," NBER Working Papers 15774, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Ricardo Reis & Vasco Curdia, 2009. "Correlated Disturbances and U.S. Business Cycles," 2009 Meeting Papers 129, Society for Economic Dynamics.
- Leeper, Eric M. & Plante, Michael & Traum, Nora, 2010.
"Dynamics of fiscal financing in the United States,"
Journal of Econometrics,
Elsevier, vol. 156(2), pages 304-321, June.
- Eric M. Leeper & Michael Plante & Nora Traum, 2009. "Dynamics of Fiscal Financing in the United States," NBER Working Papers 15160, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Eric M. Leeper & Michael Plante & Nora Traum, 2009. "Dynamics Of Fiscal Financing In The United States," Caepr Working Papers 2009-012, Center for Applied Economics and Policy Research, Economics Department, Indiana University Bloomington.
- Jaccard, Ivan, 2010.
"Asset pricing, habit memory, and the labor market,"
Working Paper Series
1163, European Central Bank.
- Rudebusch, Glenn D. & Swanson, Eric T., 2008.
"Examining the bond premium puzzle with a DSGE model,"
Journal of Monetary Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 55(Supplemen), pages S111-S126, October.
- Glenn D. Rudebusch & Eric T. Swanson, 2008. "Examining the bond premium puzzle with a DSGE model," Working Paper Series 2007-25, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
- Glenn D. Rudebusch & Eric T. Swanson, 2012.
"The Bond Premium in a DSGE Model with Long-Run Real and Nominal Risks,"
American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics,
American Economic Association, vol. 4(1), pages 105-43, January.
- Glenn D. Rudebusch & Eric T. Swanson, 2008. "The bond premium in a DSGE model with long-run real and nominal risks," Working Paper Research 143, National Bank of Belgium.
- Glenn D. Rudebusch & Eric T. Swanson, 2008. "The bond premium in a DSGE model with long-run real and nominal risks," Working Paper Series 2008-31, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
- Eric M. Leeper, 2010.
"Monetary Science, Fiscal Alchemy,"
NBER Working Papers
16510, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Eric M. Leeper, 2010. "Monetary science, fiscal alchemy," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 361-434.
- Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2010.
"Macro-finance models of interest rates and the economy,"
Working Paper Series
2010-01, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
- Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2010. "Macro-Finance Models Of Interest Rates And The Economy," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 78(s1), pages 25-52, 09.
- Talvi, Ernesto & Vegh, Carlos A., 2005. "Tax base variability and procyclical fiscal policy in developing countries," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(1), pages 156-190, October.
- De Graeve, Ferre & Emiris, Marina & Wouters, Raf, 2009. "A structural decomposition of the US yield curve," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(4), pages 545-559, May.
- Ravenna, Federico & Seppälä, Juha, 2006. "Monetary policy and rejections of the expectations hypothesis," Research Discussion Papers 25/2006, Bank of Finland.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20111411. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Official Publications)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.