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Robust Monetary Policy Under Uncertainty About the Lower Bound

Author

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  • Peter Tillmann

    (Justus-Liebig-University Giessen)

Abstract

Central banks face uncertainty about the true location of the effective lower bound (ELB) on nominal interest rates. We model optimal discretionary monetary policy during a liquidity trap when the central bank designs policy that is robust with respect to the location of the ELB. If the central bank fears the worst-case location of the ELB, monetary conditions will be more expansionary before the liquidity trap occurs.

Suggested Citation

  • Peter Tillmann, 2019. "Robust Monetary Policy Under Uncertainty About the Lower Bound," MAGKS Papers on Economics 201914, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
    • Handle: RePEc:mar:magkse:201914
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    File URL: https://www.uni-marburg.de/fb02/makro/forschung/magkspapers/paper_2019/14-2019_tillmann.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Christian Grisse & Signe Krogstrup & Silvio Schumacher, 2017. "Lower-Bound Beliefs and Long-Term Interest Rates," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 13(3), pages 165-202, September.
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    5. Charles Evans & Jonas Fisher & Francois Gourio & Spencer Krane, 2015. "Risk Management for Monetary Policy Near the Zero Lower Bound," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 46(1 (Spring), pages 141-219.
    6. Christopher Gust & Benjamin K. Johannsen & J. David López-Salido, 2017. "Monetary Policy, Incomplete Information, and the Zero Lower Bound," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 65(1), pages 37-70, April.
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    8. Gauti B. Eggertsson & Michael Woodford, 2003. "The Zero Bound on Interest Rates and Optimal Monetary Policy," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 34(1), pages 139-235.
    9. Kortela, Tomi, 2016. "A shadow rate model with time-varying lower bound of interest rates," Research Discussion Papers 19/2016, Bank of Finland.
    10. Jonathan Witmer & Jing Yang, 2016. "Estimating Canada’s Effective Lower Bound," Bank of Canada Review, Bank of Canada, vol. 2016(Spring), pages 3-14.
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    Cited by:

    1. Cornel OROS & Blandine ZIMMER, 2019. "Myopic governments and conservative central banks: are they compatible?," Working Papers of LaRGE Research Center 2019-06, Laboratoire de Recherche en Gestion et Economie (LaRGE), Université de Strasbourg.
    2. Oros, Cornel & Zimmer, Blandine, 2020. "Budget uncertainty in a monetary union," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    optimal monetary policy; discretion; robust control; uncertainty; liquidity trap;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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