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Risk‐taking channel of monetary policy

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  • Tobias Adrian
  • Arturo Estrella
  • Hyun Song Shin

Abstract

One of the most robust stylized facts in macroeconomics is the forecasting power of the term spread for future real activity. We propose a possible causal mechanism for the forecasting power of the term spread, deriving from the balance sheet management of financial intermediaries and the “risk‐taking channel of monetary policy.” Monetary tightening leads to the flattening of the term spread, reducing net interest margin and credit supply. We provide empirical support for the risk‐taking channel.

Suggested Citation

  • Tobias Adrian & Arturo Estrella & Hyun Song Shin, 2019. "Risk‐taking channel of monetary policy," Financial Management, Financial Management Association International, vol. 48(3), pages 725-738, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:finmgt:v:48:y:2019:i:3:p:725-738
    DOI: 10.1111/fima.12256
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Adrian, Tobias & Shin, Hyun Song, 2010. "Liquidity and leverage," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 418-437, July.
    2. Bernard, Henri & Gerlach, Stefan, 1998. "Does the Term Structure Predict Recessions? The International Evidence," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 3(3), pages 195-215, July.
    3. Arturo Estrella & Anthony P. Rodrigues & Sebastian Schich, 2003. "How Stable is the Predictive Power of the Yield Curve? Evidence from Germany and the United States," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 85(3), pages 629-644, August.
    4. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1993. "Business Cycles, Indicators, and Forecasting," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number stoc93-1.
    5. Adrian, Tobias & Song Shin, Hyun, 2010. "Financial Intermediaries and Monetary Economics," Handbook of Monetary Economics, in: Benjamin M. Friedman & Michael Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Monetary Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 12, pages 601-650, Elsevier.
    6. Tobias Adrian & Paolo Colla & Hyun Song Shin, 2013. "Which Financial Frictions? Parsing the Evidence from the Financial Crisis of 2007 to 2009," NBER Macroeconomics Annual, University of Chicago Press, vol. 27(1), pages 159-214.
    7. Borio, Claudio & Zhu, Haibin, 2012. "Capital regulation, risk-taking and monetary policy: A missing link in the transmission mechanism?," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 8(4), pages 236-251.
    8. Michael D. Bordo & Joseph G. Haubrich, 2004. "The Yield Curve, Recessions and the Credibility of the Monetary Regime: Long Run Evidence 1875-1997," NBER Working Papers 10431, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Stock, James H. & Watson, Mark W. (ed.), 1993. "Business Cycles, Indicators, and Forecasting," National Bureau of Economic Research Books, University of Chicago Press, edition 1, number 9780226774886, December.
    10. Acemoglu, Daron & Parker, Jonathan A. & Woodford, Michael (ed.), 2013. "NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2012," National Bureau of Economic Research Books, University of Chicago Press, number 9780226052779, July.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Huang, Yiping & Li, Xiang & Wang, Chu, 2021. "What does peer-to-peer lending evidence say about the Risk-Taking Channel of monetary policy?," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).
    2. Marie‐Hélène Gagnon & Céline Gimet, 2023. "One size may not fit all: Financial fragmentation and European monetary policies," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(1), pages 305-340, February.
    3. Altavilla, Carlo & Canova, Fabio & Ciccarelli, Matteo, 2020. "Mending the broken link: Heterogeneous bank lending rates and monetary policy pass-through," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 110(C), pages 81-98.
    4. Camelia Minoiu & Andrés Schneider & Min Wei, 2023. "Why Does the Yield Curve Predict GDP Growth? The Role of Banks," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2023-14, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
    5. Leitner, Georg & Hübel, Teresa & Wolfmayr, Anna & Zerobin, Manuel, 2021. "How risky is Monetary Policy? The Effect of Monetary Policy on Systemic Risk in the Euro Area," Department of Economics Working Paper Series 312, WU Vienna University of Economics and Business.
    6. Huang, Yiping & Li, Xiang & Wang, Chu, 2021. "What does peer-to-peer lending evidence say about the Risk-Taking Channel of monetary policy?," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).
    7. Bruno de Menna, 2021. "The Joint Impact of Bank Capital and Funding Liquidity on the Monetary Policy's Risk-Taking Channel," Working Papers hal-03138724, HAL.
    8. Weale, Martin & Wieladek, Tomasz, 2022. "Financial effects of QE and conventional monetary policy compared," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 127(C).
    9. Mönch, Emanuel & Stein, Tobias, 2021. "Equity premium predictability over the business cycle," Discussion Papers 25/2021, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    10. Diana Bonfim & Leonor Queiró, 2024. "Deposit interest rates and monetary policy transmission," Economic Bulletin and Financial Stability Report Articles and Banco de Portugal Economic Studies, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    11. Lojak, Benjamin & Makarewicz, Tomasz & Proaño, Christian R., 2023. "Low interest rates, bank’s search-for-yield behavior and financial portfolio management," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    12. Rebecca Stuart, 2020. "The term structure, leading indicators, and recessions: evidence from Switzerland, 1974–2017," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics, Springer;Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics, vol. 156(1), pages 1-17, December.
    13. Erasmo Giambona & Rafael Matta & José-Luis Peydró & Ye Wang, 2020. "Quantitative easing, investment, and safe assets: the corporate-bond lending channel," Economics Working Papers 1722, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Oct 2020.
    14. Marcio Santetti, 2023. "A time-varying finance-led model for U.S. business cycles," Papers 2310.05153, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2024.
    15. Li, Boyao, 2024. "A balance sheet analysis of monetary policy effects on banks," MPRA Paper 120882, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    16. repec:zbw:bofitp:2019_016 is not listed on IDEAS

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