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Risk‐taking channel of monetary policy

Author

Listed:
  • Tobias Adrian
  • Arturo Estrella
  • Hyun Song Shin

Abstract

One of the most robust stylized facts in macroeconomics is the forecasting power of the term spread for future real activity. We propose a possible causal mechanism for the forecasting power of the term spread, deriving from the balance sheet management of financial intermediaries and the “risk‐taking channel of monetary policy.” Monetary tightening leads to the flattening of the term spread, reducing net interest margin and credit supply. We provide empirical support for the risk‐taking channel.

Suggested Citation

  • Tobias Adrian & Arturo Estrella & Hyun Song Shin, 2019. "Risk‐taking channel of monetary policy," Financial Management, Financial Management Association International, vol. 48(3), pages 725-738, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:finmgt:v:48:y:2019:i:3:p:725-738
    DOI: 10.1111/fima.12256
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    Cited by:

    1. Camelia Minoiu & Andrés Schneider & Min Wei, 2023. "Why Does the Yield Curve Predict GDP Growth? The Role of Banks," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2023-14, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
    2. Weale, Martin & Wieladek, Tomasz, 2022. "Financial effects of QE and conventional monetary policy compared," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 127(C).
    3. Moench, Emanuel & Stein, Tobias, 2026. "Equity Premium Predictability over the Business Cycle," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 61(3), pages 1216-1246, May.
    4. Lojak, Benjamin & Makarewicz, Tomasz & Proaño, Christian R., 2023. "Low interest rates, bank’s search-for-yield behavior and financial portfolio management," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    5. Marcio Santetti, 2023. "A time-varying finance-led model for U.S. business cycles," Papers 2310.05153, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2024.
    6. Leitner, Georg & Hübel, Teresa & Wolfmayr, Anna & Zerobin, Manuel, 2021. "How risky is Monetary Policy? The Effect of Monetary Policy on Systemic Risk in the Euro Area," Department of Economics Working Paper Series 312, WU Vienna University of Economics and Business.
    7. Huang, Yiping & Li, Xiang & Wang, Chu, 2021. "What does peer-to-peer lending evidence say about the Risk-Taking Channel of monetary policy?," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).
    8. Bruno de Menna, 2021. "The Joint Impact of Bank Capital and Funding Liquidity on the Monetary Policy's Risk-Taking Channel," Working Papers hal-03138724, HAL.
    9. Erasmo Giambona & Rafael Matta & Jose‐Luis Peydro & Ye Wang, 2026. "Quantitative Easing, Investment, and Safe Assets: The Corporate Bond–Lending Channel," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 58(2), pages 329-364, March.
    10. Huang, Yiping & Li, Xiang & Wang, Chu, 2021. "What does peer-to-peer lending evidence say about the Risk-Taking Channel of monetary policy?," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).
    11. Altavilla, Carlo & Canova, Fabio & Ciccarelli, Matteo, 2020. "Mending the broken link: Heterogeneous bank lending rates and monetary policy pass-through," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 110(C), pages 81-98.
    12. Diana Bonfim & Leonor Queiró, 2024. "Deposit interest rates and monetary policy transmission," Economic Bulletin and Financial Stability Report Articles and Banco de Portugal Economic Studies, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    13. Rebecca Stuart, 2020. "The term structure, leading indicators, and recessions: evidence from Switzerland, 1974–2017," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics, Springer;Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics, vol. 156(1), pages 1-17, December.
    14. Marie‐Hélène Gagnon & Céline Gimet, 2023. "One size may not fit all: Financial fragmentation and European monetary policies," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(1), pages 305-340, February.
    15. Li, Boyao, 2024. "A balance sheet analysis of monetary policy effects on banks," MPRA Paper 120882, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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