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Liquidity, Term Spreads and Monetary Policy

  • Yunus Aksoy
  • Henrique S. Basso

We propose a model that delivers endogenous variations in term spreads driven by banks’ portfolio decision while facing the risk of maturity transformation. First, we show that fluctuations of the future profitability of banks’ portfolios affect their ability to cover for any liquidity needs and hence influence the premium banks require to carry the maturity risk. When economic activity is reaching its peak, expected profitability is relatively high and spreads are low; during a recession expected profitability is relatively low and spreads are high, in line with the time series properties of term spreads. Second, we use the model to look at unconventional monetary policy and show that allowing banks to sell long-term assets to the central bank after a liquidity shock creates a new channel of policy transmission that leads to a sharp decrease in term spreads. Such interventions have significant impact on long-term investment, decreasing the amplitude of output responses after a liquidity shock. The short-term rate does not need to decrease as much as when only conventional policies are implemented and the resulting inflation turns out to be higher. Finally, we provide econometric evidence on the link between expected financial business profitability and yield spreads.

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Paper provided by CESifo Group Munich in its series CESifo Working Paper Series with number 3988.

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Date of creation: 2012
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Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_3988
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  4. Tommy Sveen & Lutz Weinke, 2006. "Firm-specific capital, nominal rigidities, and the Taylor principle," Working Paper 2006/06, Norges Bank.
  5. Joyce, Michael & Lasaosa, Ana & Stevens , Ibrahim & Tong, Matthew, 2010. "The financial market impact of quantitative easing," Bank of England working papers 393, Bank of England.
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  8. Beirne, John & Dalitz, Lars & Ejsing, Jacob & Grothe, Magdalena & Manganelli, Simone & Monar, Fernando & Sahel, Benjamin & Sušec, Matjaž & Tapking, Jens & Vong, Tana, 2011. "The impact of the Eurosystem's covered bond purchase programme on the primary and secondary markets," Occasional Paper Series 122, European Central Bank.
  9. Charles T. Carlstrom & Timothy Fuerst, 2007. "Asset Prices, Nominal Rigidities, and Monetary Policy," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 10(2), pages 256-275, April.
  10. Benati, Luca & Goodhart, Charles, 2008. "Investigating time-variation in the marginal predictive power of the yield spread," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 32(4), pages 1236-1272, April.
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  12. Glenn D. Rudebusch & Eric T. Swanson, 2008. "The bond premium in a DSGE model with long-run real and nominal risks," Working Paper Research 143, National Bank of Belgium.
  13. Annette Vissing-Jorgensen & Arvind Krishnamurthy, 2011. "The Effects of Quantitative Easing on Long-term Interest Rates," 2011 Meeting Papers 1447, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  14. Douglas W. Diamond, 2004. "Presidential Address, Committing to Commit: Short-term Debt When Enforcement Is Costly," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 59(4), pages 1447-1479, 08.
  15. Glenn D. Rudebusch & Brian P. Sack & Eric T. Swanson, 2007. "Macroeconomic implications of changes in the term premium," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Jul, pages 241-270.
  16. Joseph Gagnon & Matthew Raskin & Julie Remache & Brian Sack, 2011. "Large-scale asset purchases by the Federal Reserve: did they work?," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue May, pages 41-59.
  17. Markus K. Brunnermeier, 2009. "Deciphering the Liquidity and Credit Crunch 2007-2008," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 23(1), pages 77-100, Winter.
  18. Hyun Song Shin & Emanuel Moench & Tobias Adrian, 2010. "Financial Intermediation, Asset Prices, and Macroeconomic Dynamics," 2010 Meeting Papers 297, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  19. Estrella, Arturo & Hardouvelis, Gikas A, 1991. " The Term Structure as a Predictor of Real Economic Activity," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(2), pages 555-76, June.
  20. Dewachter, Hans & Iania, Leonardo & Lyrio, Marco, 2011. "Information in the Yield Curve: A Macro-Finance Approach," Insper Working Papers wpe_230, Insper Working Paper, Insper Instituto de Ensino e Pesquisa.
  21. Refet S Gürkaynak & Andrew Levin & Eric Swanson, 2010. "Does Inflation Targeting Anchor Long-Run Inflation Expectations? Evidence from the U.S., UK, and Sweden," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 8(6), pages 1208-1242, December.
  22. Yunus Aksoy & Henrique S Basso & Javier Coto Matinez, 2009. "Liquidity Effects and Cost Channels in Monetary Transmission," Birkbeck Working Papers in Economics and Finance 0902, Birkbeck, Department of Economics, Mathematics & Statistics.
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