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Financial intermediation, asset prices, and macroeconomic dynamics

Author

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  • Tobias Adrian
  • Emanuel Moench
  • Hyun Song Shin

Abstract

Fluctuations in the aggregate balance sheets of financial intermediaries provide a window on the joint determination of asset prices and macroeconomic aggregates. We document that financial intermediary balance sheets contain strong predictive power for future excess returns on a broad set of equity, corporate, and Treasury bond portfolios. We also show that the same intermediary variables that predict excess returns forecast real economic activity and various measures of inflation. Our findings point to the importance of financing frictions in macroeconomic dynamics and provide quantitative guidance for preemptive macroprudential and monetary policies.

Suggested Citation

  • Tobias Adrian & Emanuel Moench & Hyun Song Shin, 2010. "Financial intermediation, asset prices, and macroeconomic dynamics," Staff Reports 422, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:fednsr:422
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Nitschka, Thomas, 2011. "Banking sectors' international interconnectedness: Implications for consumption risk sharing in Europe," Annual Conference 2011 (Frankfurt, Main): The Order of the World Economy - Lessons from the Crisis 48684, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    2. Kollmann, Robert & Zeugner, Stefan, 2012. "Leverage as a predictor for real activity and volatility," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 36(8), pages 1267-1283.
    3. Yunus Aksoy & Henrique S. Basso, 2014. "Liquidity, Term Spreads and Monetary Policy," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 124(581), pages 1234-1278, December.
    4. Balduzzi, Pierluigi & Brancati, Emanuele & Schiantarelli, Fabio, 2013. "Financial Markets, Banks' Cost of Funding, and Firms' Decisions: Lessons from Two Crises," IZA Discussion Papers 7872, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
    5. Adrian, Tobias & Friedman, Evan & Muir, Tyler, 2015. "The Cost of Capital of the Financial Sector," CEPR Discussion Papers 11031, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    6. Tobias Adrian & Hyun Song Shin, 2009. "Prices and Quantities in the Monetary Policy Transmission Mechanism," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 5(4), pages 131-142, December.
    7. Ricardo M. Sousa & João Sousa, 2011. "Asset Returns Under Model Uncertainty: Evidence from the euro area, the U.K. and the U.S," Working Papers w201119, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    8. Roberto Santis, 2015. "Quantity theory is alive: the role of international portfolio shifts," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 49(4), pages 1401-1430, December.
    9. Chava, Sudheer & Gallmeyer, Michael & Park, Heungju, 2015. "Credit conditions and stock return predictability," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 117-132.
    10. Adam Ashcraft & Nicolae Gârleanu & Lasse Heje Pedersen, 2011. "Two Monetary Tools: Interest Rates and Haircuts," NBER Chapters,in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2010, Volume 25, pages 143-180 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Danielsson, Jon & Song Shin, Hyun & Zigrand, Jean-Pierre, 2011. "Balance sheet capacity and endogenous risk," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 43141, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    12. Cesa-Bianchi, Ambrogio, 2013. "Housing cycles and macroeconomic fluctuations: A global perspective," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 215-238.
    13. Ricardo M. Sousa & João Sousa, 2011. "Asset Returns Under Model Uncertainty: Evidence from the euro area, the U.K. and the U.S," Working Papers w201119, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    14. repec:bla:sajeco:v:85:y:2017:i:1:p:3-27 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. Haakon Kavli & Nicola Viegi, 2017. "Are Determinants of Portfolio Flows Always the Same? - South African Results from a Time Varying Parameter Var Model," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 85(1), pages 3-27, March.
    16. Tobias Adrian & Erkko Etula, 2010. "Funding liquidity risk and the cross-section of stock returns," Staff Reports 464, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    17. Bluedorn, John C. & Decressin, Jörg & Terrones, Marco E., 2016. "Do asset price drops foreshadow recessions?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 518-526.
    18. Bruce Mizrach, 2012. "Comment on "Endogenous and Systemic Risk"," NBER Chapters,in: Quantifying Systemic Risk, pages 94-105 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    19. Adrian, Tobias & Etula, Erkko & Groen, Jan J.J., 2011. "Financial amplification of foreign exchange risk premia," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 55(3), pages 354-370, April.
    20. Sarte, Pierre-Daniel & Schwartzman, Felipe & Lubik, Thomas A., 2015. "What inventory behavior tells us about how business cycles have changed," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 264-283.
    21. Gieck, Jana & Traczyk, Adam, 2013. "Unconventional Monetary Policy and bank supervision," MPRA Paper 62014, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    22. Sekkel, Rodrigo M., 2015. "Balance sheets of financial intermediaries: Do they forecast economic activity?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 263-275.
    23. Scott Davis, 2010. "The adverse feedback loop and the effects of risk in both the real and financial sectors," Globalization Institute Working Papers 66, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    24. repec:eee:jfinec:v:129:y:2018:i:2:p:268-286 is not listed on IDEAS

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Macroeconomics ; Intermediation (Finance) ; Assets (Accounting) ; Forecasting;

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