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Financial Intermediation, Asset Prices, and Macroeconomic Dynamics

  • Hyun Song Shin

    (Princeton University)

  • Emanuel Moench

    (Federal Reserve Bank of New York)

  • Tobias Adrian

    (Federal Reserve Bank of New York)

Fluctuations in the aggregate balance sheets of financial intermediaries provide a window on the joint determination of asset prices and macroeconomic aggregates. We document that financial intermediary balance sheets contain strong predictive power for future excess returns on a broad set of equity, corporate, and Treasury bond portfolios. We also show that the same intermediary variables that predict excess returns forecast real economic activity and various measures of inflation. Our findings point to the importance of financing frictions in macroeconomic dynamics and provide quantitative guidance for preemptive macroprudential and monetary policies.

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Paper provided by Society for Economic Dynamics in its series 2010 Meeting Papers with number 297.

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Date of creation: 2010
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Handle: RePEc:red:sed010:297
Contact details of provider: Postal: Society for Economic Dynamics Christian Zimmermann Economic Research Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis PO Box 442 St. Louis MO 63166-0442 USA
Fax: 1-314-444-8731
Web page: http://www.EconomicDynamics.org/society.htm
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