IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/fip/fednsr/421.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Monetary cycles, financial cycles, and the business cycle

Author

Listed:
  • Tobias Adrian
  • Arturo Estrella
  • Hyun Song Shin

Abstract

One of the most robust stylized facts in macroeconomics is the forecasting power of the term spread for future real activity. The economic rationale for this forecasting power usually appeals to expectations of future interest rates, which affect the slope of the term structure. In this paper, we propose a possible causal mechanism for the forecasting power of the term spread, deriving from the balance sheet management of financial intermediaries. When monetary tightening is associated with a flattening of the term spread, it reduces net interest margin, which in turn makes lending less profitable, leading to a contraction in the supply of credit. We provide empirical support for this hypothesis, thereby linking monetary cycles, financial cycles, and the business cycle.

Suggested Citation

  • Tobias Adrian & Arturo Estrella & Hyun Song Shin, 2010. "Monetary cycles, financial cycles, and the business cycle," Staff Reports 421, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:fednsr:421
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.newyorkfed.org/medialibrary/media/research/staff_reports/sr421.html
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://www.newyorkfed.org/medialibrary/media/research/staff_reports/sr421.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Liu, Weiling & Moench, Emanuel, 2016. "What predicts US recessions?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(4), pages 1138-1150.
    2. repec:spr:epolit:v:34:y:2017:i:3:d:10.1007_s40888-017-0076-0 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. repec:eee:ecmode:v:65:y:2017:i:c:p:51-66 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Laurini, Márcio P. & Caldeira, João F., 2016. "A macro-finance term structure model with multivariate stochastic volatility," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 68-90.
    5. Landais, Bernard, 2011. "Conduite et efficacité de la politique économique : les leçons de la crise
      [Management and Efficiency of the Economic Policies : The Crisis' Lessons"]
      ," MPRA Paper 31223, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Magkonis, Georgios & Tsopanakis, Andreas, 2016. "The financial and fiscal stress interconnectedness: The case of G5 economies," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 62-69.
    7. repec:brc:brccej:v:2:y:2017:i:1:p:157-163 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Albuquerque, Bruno & Baumann, Ursel & Seitz, Franz, 2016. "What does money and credit tell us about real activity in the United States?," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 328-347.
    9. Irina Stanga, 2011. "Sovereign and Bank Credit Risk during the Global Financial Crisis," DNB Working Papers 314, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
    10. Landais, Bernard, 2010. "The monetary origins of the financial and economic crisis," MPRA Paper 23769, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Aydemir, Resul & Ovenc, Gokhan, 2016. "Interest rates, the yield curve and bank profitability in an emerging market economy," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 40(4), pages 670-682.
    12. Gregory Bauer & Gurnain Pasricha & Rodrigo Sekkel & Yaz Terajima, 2016. "The Global Financial Cycle, Monetary Policies and Macroprudential Regulations in Small, Open Economies," Staff Working Papers 16-38, Bank of Canada.
    13. Emanuel Kohlscheen & Andrés Murcia Pabón & Juan Contreras, 2018. "Determinants of bank profitability in emerging markets," BIS Working Papers 686, Bank for International Settlements.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Monetary policy ; Intermediation (Finance) ; Interest rates ; Forecasting ; Business cycles;

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fip:fednsr:421. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Amy Farber). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/frbnyus.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.