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Investor redemptions and fund manager sales of emerging market bonds: how are they related?

Author

Listed:
  • Jimmy Shek
  • Ilhyock Shim
  • Hyun Song Shin

Abstract

Lending to emerging market economies (EMEs) through bond purchases has surged since 2009. What are the risks of a sudden stop? Bond mutual funds may curtail credit through two channels. The first is redemptions by ultimate investors. The second is additional discretionary sales by fund managers, over and above any sales implied by redemptions. In an empirical analysis of EME bond funds, we find that discretionary sales tend to reinforce the sales due to investor redemptions, and that 100 dollars' worth of bond sales due to investor redemptions is accompanied by roughly 10 dollars' worth of discretionary bond sales. We also find that 100 dollars' worth of EME international bond sales is associated with around 4 dollars' worth of valuation losses. Finally, a 1 percentage point increase in the yield of local currency bonds is associated with a 10% decline in the dollar value of bond holdings.

Suggested Citation

  • Jimmy Shek & Ilhyock Shim & Hyun Song Shin, 2015. "Investor redemptions and fund manager sales of emerging market bonds: how are they related?," BIS Working Papers 509, Bank for International Settlements.
  • Handle: RePEc:bis:biswps:509
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Tobias Adrian & Daniel Stackman & Erik Vogt, 2019. "Global Price of Risk and Stabilization Policies," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 67(1), pages 215-260, March.
    2. Timmer, Yannick, 2018. "Cyclical investment behavior across financial institutions," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 129(2), pages 268-286.
    3. Vladyslav Sushko & Grant Turner, 2018. "The implications of passive investing for securities markets," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, March.
    4. Stephen Morris & Hyun Song Shin, 2016. "Illiquidity Component Of Credit Risk," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 57, pages 1135-1148, November.
    5. Eduardo Levy-Yeyati & Nathan Converse & Tomas Williams, 2017. "How ETFs Amplify the Global Financial Cycle in Emerging Markets," School of Government Working Papers 201702, Universidad Torcuato Di Tella.
    6. Ulf Lewrick & Jochen Schanz, 2017. "Is the price right? Swing pricing and investor redemptions," BIS Working Papers 664, Bank for International Settlements.
    7. Morris, Stephen & Shim, Ilhyock & Shin, Hyun Song, 2017. "Redemption risk and cash hoarding by asset managers," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 71-87.
    8. Dietrich Domanski & Hyun Song Shin & Vladyslav Sushko, 2017. "The Hunt for Duration: Not Waving but Drowning?," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 65(1), pages 113-153, April.
    9. Boris Hofmann & Ilhyock Shim & Hyun Song Shin, 2016. "Sovereign yields and the risk-taking channel of currency appreciation," BIS Working Papers 538, Bank for International Settlements.
    10. Hoggarth, Glen & Jung, Carsten & Reinhardt, Dennis, 2016. "Capital inflows — the good, the bad and the bubbly," Bank of England Financial Stability Papers 40, Bank of England.
    11. Aizenman, Joshua & Jinjarak, Yothin & Zheng, Huanhuan, 2016. "Measuring Systemic Risk Contribution of International Mutual Funds," ADBI Working Papers 594, Asian Development Bank Institute.
    12. Raddatz, Claudio & Schmukler, Sergio L. & Williams, Tomás, 2017. "International asset allocations and capital flows: The benchmark effect," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(C), pages 413-430.
    13. Nicola Branzoli & Giovanni Guazzarotti, 2017. "Liquidity transformation and financial stability: evidence from the cash management of open-end Italian mutual funds," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1113, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    14. Jhuvesh Sobrun & Philip Turner, 2015. "Bond markets and monetary policy dilemmas for the emerging markets," BIS Working Papers 508, Bank for International Settlements.
    15. Valentina Bruno & Hyun Song Shin, 2017. "Global Dollar Credit and Carry Trades: A Firm-Level Analysis," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 30(3), pages 703-749.
    16. Michael Chui & Emese Kuruc & Philip Turner, 2016. "A new dimension to currency mismatches in the emerging markets - non-financial companies," BIS Working Papers 550, Bank for International Settlements.
    17. Ramos-Francia, Manuel & Garcia-Verdu, Santiago, 2018. "Is trouble brewing for emerging market economies? An empirical analysis of emerging market economies’ bond flows," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 172-191.
    18. Yannick Timmer, 2016. "Cyclical investment behavior across financial institutions," ESRB Working Paper Series 18, European Systemic Risk Board.
    19. Braun-Munzinger, Karen & Liu, Zijun & Turrell, Arthur, 2016. "An agent-based model of dynamics in corporate bond trading," Bank of England working papers 592, Bank of England.
    20. Joseph E Gagnon & Philip Turner, 2019. "Monetary and Exchange Rate Policies for Sustained Growth in Asia," National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) Discussion Papers 497, National Institute of Economic and Social Research.
    21. Timmer, Yannick, 2016. "Cyclical investment behavior across financial institutions," Discussion Papers 08/2016, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    22. Eduardo Levy-Yeyati & Nathan Converse & Tomas Williams, 2017. "How ETFs Amplify the Global Financial Cycle in Emerging Markets," School of Government Working Papers 201702, Universidad Torcuato Di Tella.
    23. Madhusudan Mohanty, 2015. "What do new forms of finance mean for EM central banks? - An Overview," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), What do new forms of finance mean for EM central banks?, volume 83, pages 1-8, Bank for International Settlements.
    24. Eli M Remolona & Ilhyock Shim, 2015. "The rise of regional banking in Asia and the Pacific," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, September.
    25. Eduardo Levy-Yeyati & Nathan Converse & Tomas Williams, 2017. "How ETFs Amplify the Global Financial Cycle in Emerging Markets," School of Government Working Papers 2017-12, Universidad Torcuato Di Tella.

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