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Investor redemptions and fund manager sales of emerging market bonds: how are they related?

Author

Listed:
  • Jimmy Shek
  • Ilhyock Shim
  • Hyun Song Shin

Abstract

Lending to emerging market economies (EMEs) through bond purchases has surged since 2009. What are the risks of a sudden stop? Bond mutual funds may curtail credit through two channels. The first is redemptions by ultimate investors. The second is additional discretionary sales by fund managers, over and above any sales implied by redemptions. In an empirical analysis of EME bond funds, we find that discretionary sales tend to reinforce the sales due to investor redemptions, and that 100 dollars' worth of bond sales due to investor redemptions is accompanied by roughly 10 dollars' worth of discretionary bond sales. We also find that 100 dollars' worth of EME international bond sales is associated with around 4 dollars' worth of valuation losses. Finally, a 1 percentage point increase in the yield of local currency bonds is associated with a 10% decline in the dollar value of bond holdings.

Suggested Citation

  • Jimmy Shek & Ilhyock Shim & Hyun Song Shin, 2015. "Investor redemptions and fund manager sales of emerging market bonds: how are they related?," BIS Working Papers 509, Bank for International Settlements.
  • Handle: RePEc:bis:biswps:509
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    6. repec:eee:inecon:v:108:y:2017:i:c:p:413-430 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Ken Miyajima & Ilhyock Shim, 2014. "Asset managers in emerging market economies," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, September.
    8. Philip Turner, 2014. "The global long-term interest rate, financial risks and policy choices in EMEs," BIS Working Papers 441, Bank for International Settlements.
    9. Robert N. McCauley & Patrick McGuire & Vladyslav Sushko, 2015. "Global dollar credit: links to US monetary policy and leverage," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 30(82), pages 187-229.
    10. Raddatz, Claudio & Schmukler, Sergio L. & Williams, Tomás, 2017. "International asset allocations and capital flows: The benchmark effect," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(C), pages 413-430.
    11. Jhuvesh Sobrun & Philip Turner, 2015. "Bond markets and monetary policy dilemmas for the emerging markets," BIS Working Papers 508, Bank for International Settlements.
    12. Mitchell A. Petersen, 2009. "Estimating Standard Errors in Finance Panel Data Sets: Comparing Approaches," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 22(1), pages 435-480, January.
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    14. Chen, Qi & Goldstein, Itay & Jiang, Wei, 2010. "Payoff complementarities and financial fragility: Evidence from mutual fund outflows," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 97(2), pages 239-262, August.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. repec:wly:iecrev:v:57:y:2016:i::p:1135-1148 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Raddatz, Claudio & Schmukler, Sergio L. & Williams, Tomás, 2017. "International asset allocations and capital flows: The benchmark effect," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(C), pages 413-430.
    3. Yannick Timmer, 2016. "Cyclical investment behavior across financial institutions," ESRB Working Paper Series 18, European Systemic Risk Board.
    4. Braun-Munzinger, Karen & Liu, Zijun & Turrell, Arthur, 2016. "An agent-based model of dynamics in corporate bond trading," Bank of England working papers 592, Bank of England.
    5. repec:eee:moneco:v:89:y:2017:i:c:p:71-87 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Dietrich Domanski & Hyun Song Shin & Vladyslav Sushko, 2017. "The Hunt for Duration: Not Waving but Drowning?," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 65(1), pages 113-153, April.
    7. Timmer, Yannick, 2016. "Cyclical investment behavior across financial institutions," Discussion Papers 08/2016, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    8. Stephen Morris & Hyun Song Shin, 2016. "Illiquidity Component Of Credit Risk," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 57, pages 1135-1148, November.
    9. Boris Hofmann & Ilhyock Shim & Hyun Song Shin, 2016. "Sovereign yields and the risk-taking channel of currency appreciation," BIS Working Papers 538, Bank for International Settlements.
    10. Hoggarth, Glen & Jung, Carsten & Reinhardt, Dennis, 2016. "Capital inflows — the good, the bad and the bubbly," Bank of England Financial Stability Papers 40, Bank of England.
    11. Aizenman, Joshua & Jinjarak, Yothin & Zheng, Huanhuan, 2016. "Measuring Systemic Risk Contribution of International Mutual Funds," ADBI Working Papers 594, Asian Development Bank Institute.
    12. Nicola Branzoli & Giovanni Guazzarotti, 2017. "Liquidity transformation and financial stability: evidence from the cash management of open-end Italian mutual funds," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1113, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    13. Madhusudan Mohanty, 2015. "What do new forms of finance mean for EM central banks? - An Overview," BIS Papers chapters,in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), What do new forms of finance mean for EM central banks?, volume 83, pages 1-8 Bank for International Settlements.
    14. Jhuvesh Sobrun & Philip Turner, 2015. "Bond markets and monetary policy dilemmas for the emerging markets," BIS Working Papers 508, Bank for International Settlements.
    15. repec:oup:rfinst:v:30:y:2017:i:3:p:703-749. is not listed on IDEAS
    16. Valentina Bruno & Hyun Song Shin, 2017. "Global Dollar Credit and Carry Trades: A Firm-Level Analysis," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 30(3), pages 703-749.
    17. Eli M Remolona & Ilhyock Shim, 2015. "The rise of regional banking in Asia and the Pacific," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, September.
    18. Michael Chui & Emese Kuruc & Philip Turner, 2016. "A new dimension to currency mismatches in the emerging markets - non-financial companies," BIS Working Papers 550, Bank for International Settlements.
    19. Morris, Stephen & Shim, Ilhyock & Shin, Hyun Song, 2017. "Redemption risk and cash hoarding by asset managers," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 71-87.
    20. repec:eee:finsta:v:35:y:2018:i:c:p:172-191 is not listed on IDEAS

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Emerging market; sudden stop; financial crisis; global liquidity reversal; investor redemption;

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