IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/bis/biswps/509.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Investor redemptions and fund manager sales of emerging market bonds: how are they related?

Author

Listed:
  • Jimmy Shek
  • Ilhyock Shim
  • Hyun Song Shin

Abstract

Lending to emerging market economies (EMEs) through bond purchases has surged since 2009. What are the risks of a sudden stop? Bond mutual funds may curtail credit through two channels. The first is redemptions by ultimate investors. The second is additional discretionary sales by fund managers, over and above any sales implied by redemptions. In an empirical analysis of EME bond funds, we find that discretionary sales tend to reinforce the sales due to investor redemptions, and that 100 dollars' worth of bond sales due to investor redemptions is accompanied by roughly 10 dollars' worth of discretionary bond sales. We also find that 100 dollars' worth of EME international bond sales is associated with around 4 dollars' worth of valuation losses. Finally, a 1 percentage point increase in the yield of local currency bonds is associated with a 10% decline in the dollar value of bond holdings.

Suggested Citation

  • Jimmy Shek & Ilhyock Shim & Hyun Song Shin, 2015. "Investor redemptions and fund manager sales of emerging market bonds: how are they related?," BIS Working Papers 509, Bank for International Settlements.
  • Handle: RePEc:bis:biswps:509
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.bis.org/publ/work509.pdf
    File Function: Full PDF document
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: http://www.bis.org/publ/work509.htm
    Download Restriction: no

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Adrian, Tobias & Shin, Hyun Song, 2010. "Liquidity and leverage," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 418-437, July.
    2. Stefan Avdjiev & Robert McCauley & Patrick McGuire, 2012. "Rapid credit growth and international credit: Challenges for Asia," BIS Working Papers 377, Bank for International Settlements.
    3. Morris, Stephen & Shin, Hyun Song, 1998. "Unique Equilibrium in a Model of Self-Fulfilling Currency Attacks," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 88(3), pages 587-597, June.
    4. Lakonishok, Josef & Shleifer, Andrei & Vishny, Robert W., 1992. "The impact of institutional trading on stock prices," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 23-43, August.
    5. Ulf Axelson & Tim Jenkinson & Per Strömberg & Michael S. Weisbach, 2013. "Borrow Cheap, Buy High? The Determinants of Leverage and Pricing in Buyouts," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 68(6), pages 2223-2267, December.
    6. repec:eee:inecon:v:108:y:2017:i:c:p:413-430 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Ken Miyajima & Ilhyock Shim, 2014. "Asset managers in emerging market economies," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, September.
    8. Philip Turner, 2014. "The global long-term interest rate, financial risks and policy choices in EMEs," BIS Working Papers 441, Bank for International Settlements.
    9. Robert N. McCauley & Patrick McGuire & Vladyslav Sushko, 2015. "Global dollar credit: links to US monetary policy and leverage," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 30(82), pages 187-229.
    10. Raddatz, Claudio & Schmukler, Sergio L. & Williams, Tomás, 2017. "International asset allocations and capital flows: The benchmark effect," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(C), pages 413-430.
    11. Jhuvesh Sobrun & Philip Turner, 2015. "Bond markets and monetary policy dilemmas for the emerging markets," BIS Working Papers 508, Bank for International Settlements.
    12. Mitchell A. Petersen, 2009. "Estimating Standard Errors in Finance Panel Data Sets: Comparing Approaches," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 22(1), pages 435-480, January.
    13. Manuel Ramos-Francia & Santiago García-Verdú, 2015. "Is trouble brewing for EMEs?," BIS Papers chapters,in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), What do new forms of finance mean for EM central banks?, volume 83, pages 243-272 Bank for International Settlements.
    14. Chen, Qi & Goldstein, Itay & Jiang, Wei, 2010. "Payoff complementarities and financial fragility: Evidence from mutual fund outflows," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 97(2), pages 239-262, August.
    15. Tim A Kroencke & Maik Schmeling & Andreas Schrimpf, 2015. "Global Asset Allocation Shifts," BIS Working Papers 497, Bank for International Settlements.
    16. Claudio Borio & Robert McCauley & Patrick McGuire, 2011. "Global credit and domestic credit booms," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Emerging market; sudden stop; financial crisis; global liquidity reversal; investor redemption;

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bis:biswps:509. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Christian Beslmeisl). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/bisssch.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.