IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/bis/biswps/483.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Global dollar credit: links to US monetary policy and leverage

Author

Listed:
  • Robert N McCauley
  • Patrick McGuire
  • Vladyslav Sushko

Abstract

Banks and bond investors have extended $9 trillion of US dollar credit to non-bank borrowers outside the United States. This has relevance for the discussion of global liquidity and global monetary policy transmission. This paper contributes to this policy discussion by analysing the links between US monetary policy, including unconventional monetary policy, leverage and flows into bond funds, on the one hand, and dollar credit extended to non-US borrowers, on the other. We find that prior to the crisis, banks drew on low funding rates and low-cost leverage to extend dollar credit to non-US orrowers. After the Federal Reserve announced its large-scale bond purchases in 2008, however, bond investors responded to compressed long-term rates by buying dollar bonds from non-US borrowers. The balance of dollar credit transmission has shifted from global banks to global bond investors.

Suggested Citation

  • Robert N McCauley & Patrick McGuire & Vladyslav Sushko, 2015. "Global dollar credit: links to US monetary policy and leverage," BIS Working Papers 483, Bank for International Settlements.
  • Handle: RePEc:bis:biswps:483
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.bis.org/publ/work483.pdf
    File Function: Full PDF document
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: http://www.bis.org/publ/work483.htm
    Download Restriction: no

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Forbes, Kristin J. & Warnock, Francis E., 2012. "Capital flow waves: Surges, stops, flight, and retrenchment," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(2), pages 235-251.
    2. Adrian, Tobias & Shin, Hyun Song, 2010. "Liquidity and leverage," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 418-437, July.
    3. Martin Brown & Helmut Stix, 2015. "The euroization of bank deposits in Eastern Europe," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 30(81), pages 95-139.
    4. Brzoza-Brzezina, Michał & Chmielewski, Tomasz & Niedźwiedzińska, Joanna, 2007. "Substitution between domestic and foreign currency loans in Central Europe. Do central banks matter?," MPRA Paper 6759, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Stefan Avdjiev & Michael Chui & Hyun Song Shin, 2014. "Non-financial corporations from emerging market economies and capital flows," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, December.
    6. Isil Erel & Brandon Julio & Woojin Kim & Michael S. Weisbach, 2012. "Macroeconomic Conditions and Capital Raising," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 25(2), pages 341-376.
    7. Stefan Avdjiev & Robert McCauley & Patrick McGuire, 2012. "Rapid credit growth and international credit: Challenges for Asia," BIS Working Papers 377, Bank for International Settlements.
    8. Joseph Gagnon & Matthew Raskin & Julie Remache & Brian Sack, 2011. "The Financial Market Effects of the Federal Reserve's Large-Scale Asset Purchases," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 7(1), pages 3-43, March.
    9. John H. Rogers & Chiara Scotti & Jonathan H. Wright, 2014. "Evaluating asset-market effects of unconventional monetary policy: a multi-country review," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 29(80), pages 749-799, October.
    10. Dietrich Domanski & Ingo Fender & Patrick McGuire, 2011. "Assessing global liquidity," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, December.
    11. Eduardo Levy Yeyati, 2006. "Financial dollarization: evaluating the consequences," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 21(45), pages 61-118, January.
    12. Tobias Adrian & Paolo Colla & Hyun Song Shin, 2013. "Which Financial Frictions? Parsing the Evidence from the Financial Crisis of 2007 to 2009," NBER Macroeconomics Annual, University of Chicago Press, vol. 27(1), pages 159-214.
    13. D’Amico, Stefania & King, Thomas B., 2013. "Flow and stock effects of large-scale treasury purchases: Evidence on the importance of local supply," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(2), pages 425-448.
    14. Patrick McGuire & Goetz von Peter, 2012. "The Dollar Shortage in Global Banking and the International Policy Response," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 15(2), pages 155-178, June.
    15. Arvind Krishnamurthy & Annette Vissing-Jorgensen, 2011. "The Effects of Quantitative Easing on Interest Rates: Channels and Implications for Policy," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 42(2 (Fall)), pages 215-287.
    16. Bauer, Michael D. & Neely, Christopher J., 2014. "International channels of the Fed's unconventional monetary policy," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 24-46.
    17. Jouchi Nakajima, 2011. "Time-Varying Parameter VAR Model with Stochastic Volatility: An Overview of Methodology and Empirical Applications," Monetary and Economic Studies, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, vol. 29, pages 107-142, November.
    18. Marcel Fratzscher & Marco Lo Duca & Roland Straub, 2018. "On the International Spillovers of US Quantitative Easing," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 128(608), pages 330-377, February.
    19. Robert N McCauley & Patrick McGuire, 2014. "Non-US banks' claims on the Federal Reserve," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, March.
    20. Victor Pontines & Reza Siregar, 2012. "Exchange Rate Appreciation, Capital Flows and Excess Liquidity: Adjustment and Effectiveness of Policy Responses," Research Studies, South East Asian Central Banks (SEACEN) Research and Training Centre, number rp87, April.
    21. Peter Hördahl & Oreste Tristani, 2014. "Inflation Risk Premia in the Euro Area and the United States," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 10(3), pages 1-47, September.
    22. Giorgio E. Primiceri, 2005. "Time Varying Structural Vector Autoregressions and Monetary Policy," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 72(3), pages 821-852.
    23. Hills, Robert & Hoggarth, Glenn, 2013. "Cross-border bank credit and global financial stability," Bank of England Quarterly Bulletin, Bank of England, vol. 53(2), pages 126-136.
    24. Paul Mizen & Frank Packer & Eli Remolona & Serafeim Tsoukas, 2012. "Why do firms issue abroad? Lessons from onshore and offshore corporate bond finance in Asian emerging markets," Discussion Papers 12/15, University of Nottingham, Centre for Finance, Credit and Macroeconomics (CFCM).
    25. Benjamin H Cohen, 2005. "Currency choice in international bond issuance," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, June.
    26. Neely, Christopher J., 2015. "Unconventional monetary policy had large international effects," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 101-111.
    27. Stefan Afdjiev & Zsolt Kuti & Elod Takáts, 2012. "The euro area crisis and cross-border bank lending to emerging markets," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, December.
    28. Dong He & Robert N McCauley, 2012. "Eurodollar banking and currency internationalisation," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, June.
    29. Victoria Ivashina & David Scharfstein & Jeremy C. Stein, 2012. "Dollar funding and the lending behavior of global banks," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2012-74, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (US).
    30. Claudio Borio & Robert McCauley & Patrick McGuire, 2011. "Global credit and domestic credit booms," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, September.
    31. Rogers, John H. & Scotti, Chiara & Wright, Jonathan H., 2014. "Evaluating Asset-Market Effects of Unconventional Monetary Policy: A Cross-Country Comparison," International Finance Discussion Papers 1101, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    32. Bernanke, Ben S., 2013. "Long-Term Interest Rates : a speech at the Annual Monetary/Macroeconomics Conference: The Past and Future of Monetary Policy, sponsored by Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, San Francisco, Califor," Speech 629, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    33. Michael Chui & Ingo Fender & Vladyslav Sushko, 2014. "Risks related to EME corporate balance sheets: the role of leverage and currency mismatch," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    More about this item

    Keywords

    US dollar; offshore credit; interest rate differentials; leverage; bond fund flows; policy rates; term premium; unconventional monetary policy;

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bis:biswps:483. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Christian Beslmeisl). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/bisssch.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.