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The Usefulness of Financial Variables in Predicting Exchange Rate Movements

  • Rossi, José Luiz Júnior

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Paper provided by Insper Working Paper, Insper Instituto de Ensino e Pesquisa in its series Insper Working Papers with number wpe_332.

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Date of creation: Jan 2014
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Handle: RePEc:ibm:ibmecp:wpe_332
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  1. Raffaella Giacomini & Barbara Rossi, 2014. "Model Comparisons in Unstable Environments," Working Papers 784, Barcelona Graduate School of Economics.
  2. Inoue, Atsushi & Rossi, Barbara, 2011. "Out-of-Sample Forecast Tests Robust to the Choice of Window Size," CEPR Discussion Papers 8542, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  3. D'Agostino, A & Surico, P, 2007. "Does global liquidity help to forecast US inflation?," MPRA Paper 6283, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  4. Martin D. D. Evans & Richard K. Lyons, 2002. "Order Flow and Exchange Rate Dynamics," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 110(1), pages 170-180, February.
  5. Evans, Martin D.D. & Lyons, Richard K., 2008. "How is macro news transmitted to exchange rates?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(1), pages 26-50, April.
  6. Domenico Ferraro & Kenneth S. Rogoff & Barbara Rossi, 2012. "Can Oil Prices Forecast Exchange Rates?," NBER Working Papers 17998, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Todd E. Clark & Kenneth D. West, 2004. "Using out-of-sample mean squared prediction errors to test the Martingale difference hypothesis," Research Working Paper RWP 04-03, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
  8. Philippe Bacchetta & Eric van Wincoop, 2003. "Can Information Heterogeneity Explain the Exchange Rate Determination Puzzle?," Working Papers 03.02, Swiss National Bank, Study Center Gerzensee.
  9. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Chinn, Menzie D. & Pascual, Antonio Garcia, 2005. "Empirical exchange rate models of the nineties: Are any fit to survive?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(7), pages 1150-1175, November.
  10. Yu-Chin Chen & Kenneth S. Rogoff & Barbara Rossi, 2010. "Can Exchange Rates Forecast Commodity Prices?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 125(3), pages 1145-1194.
  11. Barbara Rossi, 2005. "Are Exchange Rates Really Random Walks? Some Evidence Robust to Parameter Instability," International Finance 0503006, EconWPA.
  12. Ryan Greenaway-McGrevy & Nelson C. Mark & Donggyu Sul & Jyh-Lin Wu, 2012. "Exchange Rates as Exchange Rate Common Factors," Working Papers 212012, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
  13. Yu-chin Chen & Kenneth Rogoff & Barbara Rossi, 2008. "Can Exchange Rates Forecast Commodity Prices?," Working Papers UWEC-2008-11-FC, University of Washington, Department of Economics, revised Oct 2009.
  14. Valentina Bruno & Hyun Song Shin, 2013. "Capital Flows and the Risk-Taking Channel of Monetary Policy," NBER Working Papers 18942, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  15. Banti, Chiara & Phylaktis, Kate & Sarno, Lucio, 2012. "Global liquidity risk in the foreign exchange market," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 267-291.
  16. Guillermo A. Calvo & Leonardo Leiderman & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1993. "Capital Inflows and Real Exchange Rate Appreciation in Latin America: The Role of External Factors," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 40(1), pages 108-151, March.
  17. Eickmeier, Sandra & Gambacorta, Leonardo & Hofmann, Boris, 2014. "Understanding global liquidity," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 1-18.
  18. Loriano Mancini & Angelo Ranaldo & Jan Wrampelmeyer, 2010. "Liquidity in the Foreign Exchange Market: Measurement, Commonality, and Risk Premiums," Working Papers 2010-03, Swiss National Bank.
  19. Marcel Fratzscher & Dagfinn Rime & Lucio Sarno & Gabriele Zinna, 2014. "The scapegoat theory of exchange rates: the first tests," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 991, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
  20. Chen, Yu-chin & Rogoff, Kenneth, 2003. "Commodity currencies," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(1), pages 133-160, May.
  21. Meese, Richard A. & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1983. "Empirical exchange rate models of the seventies : Do they fit out of sample?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(1-2), pages 3-24, February.
  22. Hyun Song Shin & Erkko Etula & Tobias Adrian, 2010. "Risk Appetite and Exchange Rates," 2010 Meeting Papers 311, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  23. Valentina Bruno & Hyun Song Shin, 2013. "Capital Flows, Cross-Border Banking and Global Liquidity," NBER Working Papers 19038, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  24. Bauer, Michael D. & Neely, Christopher J., 2014. "International channels of the Fed's unconventional monetary policy," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 24-46.
  25. Barbara Rossi, 2013. "Exchange Rate Predictability," Working Papers 690, Barcelona Graduate School of Economics.
  26. Rossi, Barbara, 2002. "Testing Long-horizon Predictive Ability with High Persistence, and the Meese-Rogoff Puzzle," Working Papers 02-10, Duke University, Department of Economics.
  27. Jean-Philippe Cayen & Donald Coletti & Rene Lalonde & Philipp Maier, 2010. "What Drives Exchange Rates? New Evidence from a Panel of U.S. Dollar Bilateral Exchange Rates," Staff Working Papers 10-5, Bank of Canada.
  28. Claudio Borio & Robert McCauley & Patrick McGuire, 2011. "Global credit and domestic credit booms," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, September.
  29. Christopher J. Neely, 2010. "The large scale asset purchases had large international effects," Working Papers 2010-018, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  30. Engel, Charles & West, Kenneth D., 2003. "Exchange rates and fundamentals," Working Paper Series 0248, European Central Bank.
  31. Todd E. Clark & Kenneth D. West, 2005. "Approximately normal tests for equal predictive accuracy in nested models," Research Working Paper RWP 05-05, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
  32. Lukas Menkhoff & Lucio Sarno & Maik Schmeling & Andreas Schrimpf, 2012. "Carry Trades and Global Foreign Exchange Volatility," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 67(2), pages 681-718, 04.
  33. Viral V. Acharya & S. Viswanathan, 2011. "Leverage, Moral Hazard, and Liquidity," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 66(1), pages 99-138, 02.
  34. Francis X. Diebold & Robert S. Mariano, 1994. "Comparing Predictive Accuracy," NBER Technical Working Papers 0169, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  35. Jon Faust & John H. Rogers & Jonathan H. Wright, 2001. "Exchange rate forecasting: the errors we've really made," International Finance Discussion Papers 714, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  36. Dietrich Domanski & Ingo Fender & Patrick McGuire, 2011. "Assessing global liquidity," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, December.
  37. Arvind Krishnamurthy & Annette Vissing-Jorgensen, 2011. "The Effects of Quantitative Easing on Interest Rates: Channels and Implications for Policy," NBER Working Papers 17555, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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