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Global liquidity risk in the foreign exchange market

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  • Banti, Chiara
  • Phylaktis, Kate
  • Sarno, Lucio

Abstract

Using a broad data set of 20 US dollar exchange rates and order flow of institutional investors over 14 years, we construct a measure of global liquidity risk in the foreign exchange (FX) market. Our FX liquidity measure may be seen as the analog of the well-known Pastor–Stambaugh liquidity measure for the US stock market. We show that this measure has reasonable properties, and that there is a strong common component in liquidity across currencies. Finally, we provide evidence that liquidity risk is priced in the cross-section of currency returns, and estimate the liquidity risk premium in the FX market around 4.7 percent per annum.

Suggested Citation

  • Banti, Chiara & Phylaktis, Kate & Sarno, Lucio, 2012. "Global liquidity risk in the foreign exchange market," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 267-291.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:jimfin:v:31:y:2012:i:2:p:267-291
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2011.11.010
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    Cited by:

    1. Rossi, José Luiz Júnior, 2013. "Liquidity and Exchange Rates," Insper Working Papers wpe_325, Insper Working Paper, Insper Instituto de Ensino e Pesquisa.
    2. repec:bla:jfnres:v:39:y:2016:i:4:p:411-436 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Kitamura, Yoshihiro, 2016. "The probability of informed trading measured with price impact, price reversal, and volatility," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 77-90.
    4. Banti, Chiara & Phylaktis, Kate, 2015. "FX market liquidity, funding constraints and capital flows," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 114-134.
    5. Fatum, Rasmus & Yamamoto, Yohei, 2016. "Intra-safe haven currency behavior during the global financial crisis," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 49-64.
    6. Rossi Junior, Jose Luiz & Felicio, Wilson Rafael de Oliveira, 2014. "Common Factors and the Exchange Rate: Results From the Brazilian Case," Revista Brasileira de Economia - RBE, FGV/EPGE - Escola Brasileira de Economia e Finanças, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil), vol. 68(1), April.
    7. Ledenyov, Dimitri O. & Ledenyov, Viktor O., 2015. "Wave function method to forecast foreign currencies exchange rates at ultra high frequency electronic trading in foreign currencies exchange markets," MPRA Paper 67470, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. King, Michael R. & Osler, Carol L. & Rime, Dagfinn, 2013. "The market microstructure approach to foreign exchange: Looking back and looking forward," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 95-119.
    9. Felício, Wilson Rafael de Oliveira & Rossi, José Luiz Júnior, 2013. "Common factors and the exchange rate: results from the Brazilian case," Insper Working Papers wpe_318, Insper Working Paper, Insper Instituto de Ensino e Pesquisa.
    10. Schneider, Michael & Lillo, Fabrizio & Pelizzon, Loriana, 2016. "How has sovereign bond market liquidity changed? An illiquidity spillover analysis," SAFE Working Paper Series 151, Research Center SAFE - Sustainable Architecture for Finance in Europe, Goethe University Frankfurt.
    11. Thi Hong Hanh Pham, 2018. "Liquidity and exchange rate volatility," Working Papers halshs-01708633, HAL.
    12. Fatum, Rasmus & Yamamoto, Yohei, 2014. "Intra-safe haven currency behavior during the global financial crisis," Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute Working Paper 199, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    13. Nina Karnaukh & Angelo Ranaldo & Paul Söderlind, 2015. "Understanding FX Liquidity," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 28(11), pages 3073-3108.
    14. repec:fgv:epgrbe:v:68:n:1:a:3 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. Li, Zhiyong & Lambe, Brendan & Adegbite, Emmanuel, 2017. "New Bid-Ask Spread Estimators from Daily High and Low Prices," MPRA Paper 79102, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    16. repec:eee:ecofin:v:42:y:2017:i:c:p:172-192 is not listed on IDEAS
    17. repec:eee:mulfin:v:40:y:2017:i:c:p:47-62 is not listed on IDEAS
    18. Rossi, José Luiz Júnior, 2014. "The Usefulness of Financial Variables in Predicting Exchange Rate Movements," Insper Working Papers wpe_332, Insper Working Paper, Insper Instituto de Ensino e Pesquisa.
    19. Lilian de Menezes & Marianna Russo & Giovanni Urga, 2016. "Identifying Drivers of Liquidity in the NBP Month-ahead Market," EcoMod2016 9570, EcoMod.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Foreign exchange; Liquidity; Order flow; Microstructure;

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F37 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Finance Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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