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Global liquidity as an early warning indicator of asset price booms: G5 versus broader measures

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  • Beata Bierut

Abstract

We test the performance of various measures of global liquidity as early warning indicators of booms in house and equity prices in 20 OECD countries between 1970 and 2010. We use a panel probit approach to test the relative performance of global liquidity measures based on two aggregation schemes: the traditional measures, based on G5 data, and broader measures, based on data for up to 26 countries/currency areas. Our results show that, in the last decade, global liquidity measures outperformed domestic measures as early warning indicators. Between the two global liquidity measures, G5 aggregates often outperformed broader global liquidity measures. The search for the best early warning indicator showed that the G5 real narrow money gap performed best for booms in house prices, while the global real private credit growth gap performed best for booms in equity prices, either when aggregated over G5 or over a broader sample of countries. Nevertheless, given the rising importance of the emerging market economies and a declining share of G5 in global liquidity, the current superior performance of G5 measures may not warrant their superior performance in the future. Therefore, given the importance of global liquidity measures in warning about asset price booms, the need for constructing broader global liquidity measures is warranted.

Suggested Citation

  • Beata Bierut, 2013. "Global liquidity as an early warning indicator of asset price booms: G5 versus broader measures," DNB Working Papers 377, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
  • Handle: RePEc:dnb:dnbwpp:377
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    File URL: https://www.dnb.nl/en/binaries/Working%20Paper%20377_tcm47-291373.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Carmen M. Reinhart & Graciela L. Kaminsky, 1999. "The Twin Crises: The Causes of Banking and Balance-of-Payments Problems," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(3), pages 473-500, June.
    2. Rüffer, Rasmus & Stracca, Livio, 2006. "What is global excess liquidity, and does it matter?," Working Paper Series 696, European Central Bank.
    3. AfDB AfDB, 2008. "List of Working Paper Series (1 - 95)," Working Paper Series 356, African Development Bank.
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    Cited by:

    1. Sun, David & Tsai, Shih-Chuan, 2013. "Diversifying Risks in Bond Portfolios: A Cross-border Approach," MPRA Paper 44767, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 09 Jan 2014.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Early Warning Indicators; Asset Price Booms; Global Liquidity;

    JEL classification:

    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E51 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Money Supply; Credit; Money Multipliers
    • F65 - International Economics - - Economic Impacts of Globalization - - - Finance
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods

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